The U.S. Excess Money Growth and Inflation Relation in the Long-Run: A Nonlinear Analysis

This paper specifies, estimates, and evaluates the relation between inflation rate and excess money growth, defined as the difference between money supply growth and real GDP growth, using a smooth transition regression model and U.S. data. The results indicate that the relation is a nonlinear one as supported by the linearity tests. Although deterministic extrapolation exercises indicate that both the linear and nonlinear models are stable, the nonlinear model is favored by several misspecification tests. Deterministic extrapolation exercises also indicate that an increase in excess money supply has positive effect on the long-run inflation rate but the effect is not one-to-one even in high-inflation regime.Inflation; Excess Money Growth; Smooth Transition Regression

The U.S. Excess Money Growth and Inflation Relation in the Long-Run: A Nonlinear Analysis

This paper specifies, estimates, and evaluates the relation between inflation rate and excess money growth, defined as the difference between money supply growth and real GDP growth, using a smooth transition regression model and U.S. data. The results indicate that the relation is a nonlinear one as supported by the linearity tests. Although deterministic extrapolation exercises indicate that both the linear and nonlinear models are stable, the nonlinear model is favored by several misspecification tests. Deterministic extrapolation exercises also indicate that an increase in excess money supply has positive effect on the long-run inflation rate but the effect is not one-to-one even in high-inflation regime

The U.S. Excess Money Growth and Inflation Relation in the Long-Run: A Nonlinear Analysis

This paper specifies, estimates, and evaluates the relation between inflation rate and excess money growth, defined as the difference between money supply growth and real GDP growth, using a smooth transition regression model and U.S. data. The results indicate that the relation is a nonlinear one as supported by the linearity tests. Although deterministic extrapolation exercises indicate that both the linear and nonlinear models are stable, the nonlinear model is favored by several misspecification tests. Deterministic extrapolation exercises also indicate that an increase in excess money supply has positive effect on the long-run inflation rate but the effect is not one-to-one even in high-inflation regime

Competition Policy in Turkey

This paper evaluates the current competition policy framework in Turkey. A brief history of competition policy is presented. An account of the Law on the Protection of Competition, the main law on competition in Turkey, is given. The structure of the Competition Authority, the body responsi- ble for applying the Law, and the way the enforcement system works are explained. Detailed statistics are given about all the cases submitted to the Competition Authority by 2002. Accounts of some selected cases are reported and a general assessment of the implementation of competition policy is offered. The main finding of the paper is that, although there is a movement in the right direction, competition policy implementation in Turkey still needs to be developed and strengthened

Measuring the Core Inflation in Turkey with the SM-AR Model

This paper employs a new econometric technique to estimate the core inflation in Turkey measured as the shifting means in levels between 1955 and 2014. Using monthly series, we determine the number of shifts using the BIC, the hv-block cross-validation, the Lin-Teräsvirta parameter constancy test, and the neural networks test for neglected non-linearity. We find that there are at least three shifts in the inflation series. The findings help detect the exact dates of the shifts between different inflation regimes and the duration of each shift, which should be important information in evaluating the success of past economic policies in fighting inflation

Measuring the Effectiveness of Competition Policy: Evidence from the Turkish Cement Industry

In this paper, I develop a new method to test whether the introduction of competition policy in an industry has had any effects on its market performance. The method is based on the new empirical industrial organization methodology. I apply the method to the Turkish cement industry, which has been heavily investigated by the Turkish Competition Authority. The results show that the introduction of competition policy has had no effect in the market performance of the industry

Unit Roots and Smooth Transitions: A Replication

This paper replicates Leybourne et al. (1998), who propose a Dickey-Fuller type test for unit root that is most appropriate when there is reason to suspect the possibility of deterministic structural change in the series. We find that our replicated results are quite similar to the authors' results. We also make the Ox source code available

Competition Policy in Turkey

This paper evaluates the current competition policy framework in Turkey. A brief history of competition policy is presented. An account of the Law on the Protection of Competition, the main law on competition in Turkey, is given. The structure of the Competition Authority, the body responsi- ble for applying the Law, and the way the enforcement system works are explained. Detailed statistics are given about all the cases submitted to the Competition Authority by 2002. Accounts of some selected cases are reported and a general assessment of the implementation of competition policy is offered. The main finding of the paper is that, although there is a movement in the right direction, competition policy implementation in Turkey still needs to be developed and strengthened

Numerical accuracy of Ox 6.2

This article evaluates the numerical accuracy of Ox object-oriented matrix programming language. It uses the Standard Reference Datasets (StRD) for estimation accuracy, the ELV DOS program for statistical distribution accuracy, and the DIEHARD battery of randomness tests for random number generation accuracy. The main finding of the paper is that Ox is quite accurate in almost every area it is tested. However, it should also be stressed that there is room for improvement in its optimization library