The Neural Basis of Financial Risk Taking

Investors systematically deviate from rationality when making financial decisions, yet the mechanisms responsible for these deviations have not been identified. Using event-related fMRI, we examined whether anticipatory neural activity would predict optimal and suboptimal choices in a financial decision-making task. We characterized two types of deviations from the optimal investment strategy of a rational risk- neutral agent as risk-seeking mistakes and risk-aversion mistakes. Nucleus accumbens activation preceded risky choices as well as risk- seeking mistakes, while anterior insula activation preceded riskless choices as well as risk-aversion mistakes. These findings suggest that distinct neural circuits linked to anticipatory affect promote different types of financial choices, and indicate that excessive activation of these circuits may lead to investing mistakes. Thus, consideration of anticipatory neural mechanisms may add predictive power to the rational actor model of economic decision-making.neuroeconomics, neurofinance, brain, investing, emotions, affect

The Influence of Affect on Beliefs, Preferences and Financial Decisions

Recent research in neuroeconomics suggests that the same brain areas that generate emotional states are also involved in the processing of information about risk, rewards and punishments. These findings imply that emotions may influence financial decisions in a predictable and parsimonious way. Our evidence suggests that affect -- generated either by exogenous manipulations, or endogenously by outcomes of prior actions -- indeed matters for financial risk taking, and that it does so by changing preferences as well as the belief formation process. Positive and arousing emotional states such as excitement induce people to take more risk, and to be more confident in their ability to evaluate the available investment options, relative to neutral states, while negative emotions such as anxiety have the opposite effects. Moreover, beliefs are updated in a way that is consistent with the self-preservation motive of maintaining positive affect and avoiding negative affect, by not fully taking into account new information that is at odds with the individuals' prior choices. Therefore, characteristics of markets, economic policies or organization design that have an impact on emotional brain circuits may influence decision making and affect important outcomes at the individual and aggregate level.affect, emotions, beliefs, risk taking, learning, limbic system, neuroeconomics, neurofinance

CEO turnover in a competitive assignment framework

There is considerable and widespread concern about whether CEOs are appropriately punished for poor performance. The empirical literature on CEO turnover documents that CEOs are indeed more likely to be forced out if their performance is poor relative to the industry average. However, CEOs are also more likely to be replaced if the industry is doing badly. We show that these empirical patterns are natural and efficient outcomes of a competitive assignment model in which CEOs and firms form matches based on multiple characteristics, and where industry conditions affect the outside options of both managers and firms. Our model also has several new predictions about the type of replacement manager, and their pay and performance. We construct a dataset which describes all turnover events during the period 1992-2006 and show that these predictions are also born out empirically.Executive Turnover; Matching Models; Competitive Assignment; CEO Labor Market

Rank expectations, feedback and social hierarchies

We develop and test experimentally a theoretical model of the role of self-esteem, generated by private feedback regarding relative performance, on the behavior of agents working on an effort provision task for a flat wage. Agents work harder and expect to rank better when they are told they may learn their ranking, relative to cases when they are told feedback will not be provided. Individuals who learn that they have ranked better than expected decrease their output but expect an even better rank in the future, while those who were told they ranked worse than expected increase their output and at the same time lower their rank expectations going forward. These effects are stronger in earlier rounds of the task, while subjects learn how they compare to their peers. This rank hierarchy is established early on, and remains relatively stable afterwards. Private relative rank information helps create a ratcheting effect in the group's average output, which is mainly due to the fight for dominance at the top of the hierarchy. Hence, in environments where monetary incentives are weak, moral hazard may be mitigated by providing feedback to agents regarding their relative performance, and by optimally choosing the reference peer group.rankings, incentives, feedback, moral hazard, intrinsic motivation, ego utility, self-esteem

Searching for Jobs: Evidence from MBA Graduates

This paper proposes and tests empirically a model of optimal job search using novel data on job seeking strategies of participants in the labor market for MBA graduates. Theoretically and empirically I find that the breadth of search that workers conduct depends on their ability, outside option, and fit with available jobs, as well as on the exogenous job application cost and the ex-ante probability of applications resulting in offers. These results illustrate the formation of the supply of human capital available to hiring companies, which drives the efficiency of matching between workers and firms and ultimately determines productivity.job search; matching; human capital; MBA education; career choice

Exploration for Human Capital: Evidence from the MBA Labor Market

We empirically investigate the effect of uncertainty on corporate hiring. Using novel data from the labor market for MBA graduates, we show that uncertainty regarding how well job candidates fit with a firm's industry hinders hiring and that firms value probationary work arrangements that provide the option to learn more about potential full-time employees. The detrimental effect of uncertainty on hiring is more pronounced when firms face greater firing and replacement costs and when they face less direct competition from other similar firms. These results suggest that firms faced with uncertainty use similar considerations when making hiring decisions as when making decisions regarding investment in physical capital

Nucleus accumbens activation mediates the influence of reward cues on financial risk-taking

In functional magnetic resonance imaging (FMRI) research, nucleus accumbens (NAcc) activation spontaneously increases prior to financial risk taking. Since anticipation of diverse rewards can increase NAcc activation, even incidental reward cues may influence financial risk-taking. Using event-related FMRI, we predicted and found that anticipation of viewing rewarding stimuli (erotic pictures for 15 heterosexual males) increased financial risk taking, and that this effect was partially mediated by increases in NAcc activation. These results are consistent with the notion that incidental reward cues influence financial risk taking by altering anticipatory affect, and so identify a neuropsychological mechanism that may underlie effective emotional appeals in financial, marketing, and political domains.neuroeconomics, neurofinance, brain, financial risk taking, risk preferences, decision making, nucleus accumbens, striatum, reward cues, FMRI, brain imaging

Socioeconomic status and learning from financial information

The majority of lower socioeconomic status (SES) households in the U.S. and Europe do not have stock investments, which is detrimental to wealth accumulation. Here, we examine one explanation for this puzzling fact, namely, that economic adversity may influence how people learn from financial information. Using experimental and survey data from the U.S. and Romania, we find that lower SES individuals form more pessimistic beliefs about the distribution of stock returns and are less likely to invest in stocks when these investments are likely to have good outcomes. SES-related differences in pessimism may help explain variation in investments across households

Searching for Jobs: Evidence from MBA Graduates

This paper proposes and tests empirically a model of optimal job search using novel data on job seeking strategies of participants in the labor market for MBA graduates. Theoretically and empirically I find that the breadth of search that workers conduct depends on their ability, outside option, and fit with available jobs, as well as on the exogenous job application cost and the ex-ante probability of applications resulting in offers. These results illustrate the formation of the supply of human capital available to hiring companies, which drives the efficiency of matching between workers and firms and ultimately determines productivity

The Influence of Affect on Beliefs, Preferences and Financial Decisions

Recent research in neuroeconomics suggests that the same brain areas that generate emotional states are also involved in the processing of information about risk, rewards and punishments. These findings imply that emotions may influence financial decisions in a predictable and parsimonious way. Our evidence suggests that affect -- generated either by exogenous manipulations, or endogenously by outcomes of prior actions -- indeed matters for financial risk taking, and that it does so by changing preferences as well as the belief formation process. Positive and arousing emotional states such as excitement induce people to take more risk, and to be more confident in their ability to evaluate the available investment options, relative to neutral states, while negative emotions such as anxiety have the opposite effects. Moreover, beliefs are updated in a way that is consistent with the self-preservation motive of maintaining positive affect and avoiding negative affect, by not fully taking into account new information that is at odds with the individuals' prior choices. Therefore, characteristics of markets, economic policies or organization design that have an impact on emotional brain circuits may influence decision making and affect important outcomes at the individual and aggregate level