2 research outputs found
Recommended from our members
Challenges and opportunities to capture dietary effects in on-farm greenhouse gas emissions models of ruminant systems
This paper reviews existing on-farm GHG accounting models for dairy cattle systems and their ability to capture the effect of dietary strategies in GHG abatement. The focus is on methane (CH4) emissions from enteric and manure (animal excreta) sources and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from animal excreta. We identified three generic modelling approaches, based on the degree to which models capture diet-related characteristics: from ‘none’ (Type 1) to ‘some’ by combining key diet parameters with emission factors (EF) (Type 2) to ‘many’ by using process-based modelling (Type 3). Most of the selected on-farm GHG models have adopted a Type 2 approach, but a few hybrid Type 2 / Type 3 approaches have been developed recently that combine empirical modelling (through the use of CH4 and/or N2O emission factors; EF) and process-based modelling (mostly through rumen and whole tract fermentation and digestion). Empirical models comprising key dietary inputs (i.e., dry matter intake and organic matter digestibility) can predict CH4 and N2O emissions with reasonable accuracy. However, the impact of GHG mitigation strategies often needs to be assessed in a more integrated way, and Type 1 and Type 2 models frequently lack the biological foundation to do this. Only Type 3 models represent underlying mechanisms such as ruminal and total-tract digestive processes and excreta composition that can capture dietary effects on GHG emissions in a more biological manner. Overall, the better a model can simulate rumen function, the greater the opportunity to include diet characteristics in addition to commonly used variables, and thus the greater the opportunity to capture dietary mitigation strategies. The value of capturing the effect of additional animal feed characteristics on the prediction of on-farm GHG emissions needs to be carefully balanced against gains in accuracy, the need for additional input and activity data, and the variability encountered on-farm
Integrating heterogeneous across-country data for proxy-based random forest prediction of enteric methane in dairy cattle
Publication history: Accepted - 9 February 2022; Published online - 26 March 2022Direct measurements of methane (CH4) from individual animals are difficult and expensive. Predictions based on proxies for CH4 are a viable alternative. Most prediction models are based on multiple linear regressions (MLR) and predictor variables that are not routinely available in commercial farms, such as dry matter intake (DMI) and diet composition. The use of machine learning (ML) algorithms to predict CH4 emissions from across-country heterogeneous data sets has not been reported. The objectives were to compare performances of ML ensemble algorithm random forest (RF) and MLR models in predicting CH4 emissions from proxies in dairy cows, and assess effects of imputing missing data points on prediction accuracy. Data on CH4 emissions and proxies for CH4 from 20 herds were provided by 10 countries. The integrated data set contained 43,519 records from 3,483 cows, with 18.7% missing data points imputed using k-nearest neighbor imputation. Three data sets were created, 3k (no missing records), 21k (missing DMI imputed from milk, fat, protein, body weight), and 41k (missing DMI, milk fat, and protein records imputed). These data sets were used to test scenarios (with or without DMI, imputed vs. nonimputed DMI, milk fat, and protein), and prediction models (RF vs. MLR). Model predictive ability was evaluated within and between herds through 10-fold cross-validation. Prediction accuracy was measured as correlation between observed and predicted CH4, root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean normalized discounted cumulative gain (NDCG). Inclusion of DMI in the model improved within and between-herd prediction accuracy to 0.77 (RMSE = 23.3%) and 0.58 (RMSE = 31.9%) in RF and to 0.50 (RMSE = 0.327) and 0.13 (RMSE = 42.71) in MLR, respectively than when DMI was not included in the predictive model. When missing DMI records were imputed, within and between-herd accuracy increased to 0.84 (RMSE = 18.5%) and 0.63 (RMSE = 29.9%), respectively. In all scenarios, RF models out-performed MLR models. Results suggest routinely measured variables from dairy farms can be used in developing globally robust prediction models for CH4 if coupled with state-of-the-art techniques for imputation and advanced ML algorithms for predictive modeling.This paper is the result of the concerted effort of all participants and support from the networks of COST Action FA1302 “METHAGENE: Large-scale methane measurements on individual ruminants for genetic evaluations.” The authors thank all individuals and groups who have directly or indirectly contributed to this work; special thanks are due to the technical and financial support from the COST Action FA1302 of the European Union. In addition, all financial and technical support from all participating countries and research centers involved in this work is greatly acknowledged