Empirical analysis of regional economic performance in Russia : human capital perspective

Having shown the important role of the Russian economy in the ex-USSR region by causality tests, we proceed to empirical analysis of growth and performance of the Russian regions. A dynamic panel data approach enabled us to obtain elasticity coefficients on proxies for convergence, physical capital, labour and innovation. After including human capital in the reformulated model we resolve endogeneity and reverse causality by introducing two instrumental variable approaches. Taking advantage of the Unified State Exam data we managed to successfully endogenize human capital by number (and share) of outperforming students and by the education index. The second approach helped to improve causality between instruments and human capital: the dates of first university foundation and distance to Moscow successfully explains human capital variations due to historical and spatial characteristics of a given region

Spurious periodicities in cliometric series : simultaneous testing

In this paper we revisit the methodological aspects of the issue of spurious cycles: using the well-established clinometric data, we apply an empirical strategy to identify spurious periodicities and cross-validate the results. The analysis of cyclical fluctuations involves numerous challenges, including data preparation and detrending. As a result, there is a risk of statistical artifacts to arise: it is known that summation operators and filtering yield a red noise alike spectral signature, amplifying lower frequencies and thus, longer periodicity, whereas detrending using differencing yields a blue noise alike spectral signature, amplifying higher frequencies and thus, shorter periodicity. In our paper we explicitly address this issue. In order to derive the stationary signals to be tested, we perform outlier adjustment, derive cycles from the series with the asymmetric band pass Christiano-Fitzgerald filter using the upper bands of the Kuznets and the Juglar cycles as cut-offs, and obtain detrended prefiltered signals by differencing the series in the absence of fractional integration. Afterwards, we simultaneously test whether the spectral densities of filtered and detrended prefiltered signals are significantly different from the spectral density of the related noise. The periodicities from the Kuznets range were not simultaneously significant, and thus are likely to be spurious; whereas ones of the Juglar and Kitchin ranges were simultaneously significant. The simultaneous significance test helps to identify spurious periodicities and the results, in general, accord with the durations of the business cycles found in other works

The political Kuznets Curve for Russia : income inequality, rent seeking regional elites and empirical determinants of protests during 2011/2012

The goal of this paper is to apply the theory of the political Kuznets curve to Russia and reveal the key determinants of the probability of recent protests during 2011-2012 in the Russian regions. We apply the political Kuznets curve in the time and spatial dimensions, and find mixed evidence: throughout time, we observe an almost linear and positive relation between income and income distribution, whereas in the spatial dimension there exists an evidence of a concave curve. Empirical investigation of the role of income inequality using the latent variable framework allows us to outmanoeuvre certain measurement issues and state that conventional measures of income inequality, such as the Gini coefficient, may not be able to predict protests. Instead, we use the relation of the governors? family income to the average family income in the region, a proxy for rent-seeking of regional elites, which turns out to be a positive, significant and robust determinant of the protests. Applying additional controls ensures the robustness of the results and highlights the fact that democracy score and the economic factors are also significant. Mapping the distribution of the protests provides information on the clustering effect

Inequality and guard labor, or prohibition and guard labor?

In this paper, we consider whether or not inequality forces society to expend more resources on supervision which imposes an extra cost to doing business. Some argue that since inequality deteriorates social capital, there is a greater need for supervisory labor which is a costly burden to bear. We propose an alternative (but not mutually exclusive) explanation. We argue that the war on drugs leads to institutional decay and lower levels of trust which, in turn, force private actors to deploy resources to supervise workers and protect themselves. Our explanation complements the argument regarding the link between inequality and guard labor

Business cycles in the economy and in economics : an econometric analysis

It is sometimes pointed out that economic research is prone to move in cycles and react to particular events such as crises and recessions. The present paper analyses this issue through a quantitative analysis by answering two closely related research questions: (1) whether or not there are patterns in the economic literature on business cycles, and (2) whether or not these are correlated with movements in actual economic activity. To tackle these questions, a bibliometric analysis of key terms related to business cycle and crises theory is performed. In a second step, these results are confronted with data on actual economic developments in order to investigate the question of whether or not the theoretical literature follows trends and developments in economic data. Respective time series are detrended by the Kalman filter in order to estimate cycles. To determine the connection between economic activity and developments in the academic literature, a descriptive analysis is scrutinized by Granger causality tests. The paper also includes IRF analysis for quantitative assessment of the effects from economic to bibliometric variables. The results point towards a confirmation of the hypothesis of an effect of business cycles and crises in economic variables on discussions in the literature

You can't always get what you want? Estimator choice and the speed of convergence

We propose theory-based Monte Carlo simulations to quantify the extent to which the estimated speed of convergence depends on the underlying econometric techniques. Based on a theoretical growth model as the data generating process, we find that, given a true speed of convergence of around 5%, the estimated values range from 0.2% to 7.72%. This corresponds to a range of the half life of a given gap from around 9 years up to several hundred years. With the exception of the (very inefficient) system GMM estimator with the collapsed matrix of instruments, the true speed of convergence is outside of the 95% confidence intervals of all investigated state-of-the-art estimators. In terms of the squared percent error, the between estimator and the system GMM estimator with the non-collapsed matrix of instruments perform worst, while the system GMM estimator with the collapsed matrix of instruments and the corrected least squares dummy variable estimator perform best. Based on these results we argue that it is not a good strategy to rely on only one or two different estimators when assessing the speed of convergence, even if these estimators are seen as suitable for the given sources of biases and inefficiencies. Instead one should compare the outcomes of different estimators carefully in light of the results of Monte Carlo simulation studies

Who are the champions? Inequality, economic freedom and the olympics

Does a countrys level of inequality affect its ability to win Olympic medals? If it does, is it conditional on institutional factors? We argue that the ability of economically free societies to win medals will not be affected by inequality. In these societies, institutions generate incentives to invest in the talent pool of individuals at the bottom of the income distribution (people who are otherwise constrained in the ability to expend resources on athletic training). These effects cancel out those of inequality. In unfree societies, the incentives that promote investments in skills across the income distribution are weaker. Consequently, the effects of inequality on the ability to win are stronger. Using the Olympics of 2012 and 2016 in combination with the Economic Freedom of the World Index, we find that inequality only matters in determining medal numbers for unfree countries. We link these results to the debates on inequality

The role of Old Believers enterprises : evidence from the nineteenth century Moscow textile industry

The early accumulation of capital and the pioneering of capitalist enterprise have been undertaken in many countries by heterodox religious communities. The role of the Old Believers (further OB) in the early development of Russian industry and trade was noted by many economic historians (Blackwell, 1965; Gerschenkron, 1970; Beliajeff, 1979; Stadnikov, 2002; Kerov, 2004; Raskov, 2012); however, empirical and statistical research on the topic is still scarce. Therefore one of our goals is to analyze the role of the OB entrepreneurship in a dynamic dimension using statistical data. Taking advantage of official censuses of 1850, 1857 and, what is more important, 15 archive sources for confessional data for 1808 - 1905 and 7 industrial reports, we analyze the role of the OB firms in the Moscow textile industry for the period of 1832 - 1890. We find that the share of the OB firms in turnover and employment was over-proportionate prior to 1879, which hints at a higher propensity to entrepreneurship. The turnover per worker of the OB firms was significantly higher only in the wool sub-sector. Additionally, the OB firms tended to employ more labor. We capture the continuous process of the rise and fall of the OB entrepreneurship, especially in cotton-paper and wool weaving sub-sectors. Bearing in mind cyclical waves of repressions against the OB, we can state, that the performance of their firms was impressing. We discuss the Weber thesis and the Petty-Gerschenkron argument, and state that various factors contributed to their success: working ethics and minority status; social capital, networking and access to interest free financing; own informal institutions and reputation mechanisms; human capital and literacy

Business cycles and institutions : empirical analysis

The cumulative dissertation covers diverse aspects of empirical analysis of business cycles and institutions. There are three research questions in focus. To address the interplay between business cycles and institutions, the first research question is formulated: could the Malthusian cycles be present in a frontier economy with abundance of land and which institutions could be responsible for the Malthusian regime and the transition from it? In order to consider the far-reaching implications of economic cycles for the development of economic thought, the second question is stated: can economic fluctuations quantitatively influence research output? To address the methodology of business cycle analysis, the third question is brought up: how may spurious periodicities emerge and how could one test for them? The main findings in the cumulative dissertation can be summarized as follows: i) it is shown that institutional arrangements may form economic constraints or build-up on the existing ones, responsible for the regimes in which cyclical fluctuations take place; ii) the interaction between the economic cycles and fluctuations in bibliometric variables representing research output in Economics as a science is analysed, and empirical evidence suggests the downswings of cycles stimulate more publications on the topic of crises and business cycles; iii) spurious periodicities emerge close to filtering bounds for real and simulated data after detrending, and it is demonstrated that simultaneous significance testing of spectral density peaks against the noise spectrum across different types of signals may help to reveal spurious periodicities.In der kumulativen Dissertation wurden verschiedene Aspekte der empirischen Analyse des Zusammenhangs zwischen Konjunkturzyklen und Institutionen erforscht. Drei Forschungsfragen wurden hierbei insbesondere untersucht. Um den Zusammenhang zwischen Konjunkturzyklen und Institutionen zu analysieren, wurde als erste Forschungsfrage formuliert, ob malthusianische Zyklen in einer frontier-Wirtschaft mit einem reichlichen Vorrat an Land existieren können, und welche Institutionen für die malthusianischen Regime und deren Auflösung verantwortlich sein können. Um die weitreichenden Auswirkungen konjunktureller Schwankungen zu erfassen, bezieht sich die zweite Forschungsfrage darauf, inwieweit Konjunkturzyklen quantitativ die Forschungsaktivität in der wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Literatur beeinflussen. Mit der dritten Forschungsfrage, wie Scheinperiodizitäten entstehen und wie diese getestet werden können, werden die methodologischen Aspekte der empirischen Konjunkturanalyse betrachtet. Die Hauptschlussfolgerungen der kumulativen Dissertation sind folgende: i) Institutionen können wirtschaftliche Restriktionen zur Folge haben, welche die wirtschaftlichen Regime bestimmen, in denen sich konjunkturelle Schwankungen abspielen; ii) die empirischen Ergebnisse der Analyse der wirtschaftlichen und bibliometrischen Daten legen nahe, dass die Abschwungsphase der Konjunkturzyklen mit einer Erhöhung der Forschungsaktivität im Bereich der wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Krisen- und Konjunkturtheorie verbunden ist; iii) die Scheinperiodizität entsteht neben den Grenzen des Durchlassbereiches des Filters sowohl in echten als auch in simulierten Daten nach der Trendbereinigung. Zudem wurde gezeigt, dass gleichzeitiges Signifikanztesten der Gipfel der spektralen Dichten gegen die spektralen Dichten des Rauschens bei der Identifizierung der Scheinperiodizitäten hilfreich sein könnte

It's a man's world? The rise of female entrepreneurship during privatization in Serbia

The relationship between female empowerment and economic development is one of the most complex examples of reverse causality, yet multiple scholars acknowledge that female empowerment promotes economic progress. One of the crucial aspects of female empowerment is female entrepreneurship; however, the literature on the emergence of female entrepreneurship is scarce. We focus on the rise of female entrepreneurship in Serbia and collect an extensive biographical dataset of women, who took part in privatization. Although women enjoyed the same de jure rights as men, they faced a number of informal restrictions such as i) patriarchal values, limiting the role of women in the society and ii) occupations in low-wage sectors, making it difficult to accumulate capital. Analyzing the determinants of failures of the newly privatized firms during 2002{2019 we find a significant negative relationship between the risks of failure and the cases of own independent entrepreneurial success of women prior to privatization as well as the cases, in which only the entrepreneurial success of husbands of these women was registered. This relationship is robust to controlling for diverse characteristics of firms and to inclusion of ownership duration. We also find that the presence of influential husbands in the background was not significantly related to the subsequent change of ownership. Although the ownership change was registered for the majority of firms in our sample, we find that during the Serbian privatization women managed to build up on their own entrepreneurial success, which contributed to female empowerment. These findings can be relevant for understanding the aftermath of privatizations with respect to gender inequality in other transition countries