16 research outputs found
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DEVELOP Project Uses Satellite Data to Help Control Malaria in Zanzibar
A key factor in predicting where malaria outbreaks are likely to happen is knowledge of the land surface. This article has described a NASA DEVELOP study to test the effectiveness of using land classifications from satellite remote sensing as a means to help control the spread of malaria in Zanzibar. The study used both a Landsat 5 image and a series of mosaicked ISERV images, and the results revealed benefits with respect to the classification from both types of images. The Landsat 5 image was able to accurately classify the brush/shrubs, forest, urban areas, mangroves, and sugarcane/rice fields land cover classes. While the ISERV images were not able to differentiate between the various land cover classes nearly as well, they were able to classify high spatial resolution features such as roads that the Landsat 5 image could not detect. One of the main benefits of using remotely sensed products such as the ones used in the methodology described in
this study is that the maps can be updated to include additional layers, e.g., ecosystem conditions and urban growth change. Hence there are opportunities to expand this study in the future
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Applied Earth observations for the disaster management sector
Applied Earth observations for the disaster management sector Earth observations can support crucial humanitarian activities such as disaster management and disaster risk assessment. This knowledge product explores examples of how Earth observations have been used within the disaster management and disaster risk reduction contexts alongside a discussion of the current uses, ethics, and the future of Earth observation data
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Enhanced urban adaptation efforts needed to counter rising extreme rainfall risks
Record-breaking rainfall events are occurring more frequently in a warming climate. Impacts on lives and livelihoods disproportionately occur in traditionally underserved communities, particularly in urban areas. To influence policy and behavioral change at the community level, climate services must be developed specific to extreme rainfall events and subsequent floods in urban environments
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Overstromingen in Malawi en Mozambique
In mid-January, Malawi and Mozambique were hit by heavy rainfall that caused major impact with hundreds dead and more than three hundred thousand displaced. A major international aid operation was set up by the United Nations and the International Red Cross to help the most affected. The question arises again and again how rare this extreme rainfall is and whether this is (partly) caused by climate change. We are working with an international group, including KNMI and the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Center, to set up a system that can answer these kinds of questions. We will use the parts that have already been completed here to provide a partial answer to the above question and to provide insight into problems that we encounter in practice. (translated
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Editorial: Climate services for risk informed anticipatory action
It is increasingly evident that disaster occurrence and the magnitude of disaster impacts continue to evolve, with these changes driven by climatic, cultural, socio-political and economic factors (Peek and Mileti, 2002; Lewis and Kelman, 2010; Raju et al., 2022). Yet, gaps remain in understanding the extent to which Early Warning Systems (EWS), Anticipatory Action (AA) programs and other Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) strategies are appropriately structured to be sufficiently agile in incorporating evolutions of both natural and socio economic systems (Garcia and Fearnley, 2012; Kruczkiewicz et al., 2021).
However, certain aspects of AA are improving, such as integration of Earth Observations (EO) into trigger model development and the production of funding structures that are designed to facilitate distribution of resources pre-disaster (Nauman et al., 2021; Pache et al., 2022). Yet, additional progress is needed, particularly related to prediction of geophysical and climatic variables, validation of forecasts, governance, and in defining processes for selection of one AA approach over another for a particular context (de Ruiter et al., 2020; Kruczkiewicz et al., 2022; de la Poterie et al., 2023). Best practices and opportunities for engagement within climate services, and for alignment with adaptation and mitigation strategies, as well as collaborating across various sectors in private industry, are also lacking, while demand accelerates. There is also a lack of incentives and standards for providing substantive details around if and to what extent how all people subjected to an AA or EWS program experience these programs, across a spectrum from benefiting to actually being worse off. Such descriptions of influence should include both potential gains, losses and additional hardships introduced, in order to assess potential effectiveness and risks. Understanding types of governance, and potential for scalability and sustainability, is crucial for this purpose
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Indexing climatic and environmental exposure of refugee camps with a case study in East Africa
This study presents a novel approach to systematically measure climatic and environmental exposure in refugee camps using remote sensing and geospatial data. Using a case study of seventeen refugee camps across five countries in East Africa, we develop a climatic and environmental exposure index to quantify each camp’s exposure relative to a population of simulated camp locations within the hosting country. Our results show that seven of seventeen refugee camps are within the upper two quartiles of exposure relative to a simulated population, suggesting that more than six-hundred thousand refugees living in these camps face elevated exposure compared to other potential camp locations. This method stands to improve the process of gathering and analyzing climatic and environmental data on geographically remote humanitarian spaces in a reliable, low-cost, and standardized manner. Automation and refinement of this index could enable real-time updates on climatic and environmental exposure to support decision-making related to disaster risk reduction in refugee camp management
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Are Underserved Populations Left Out of National Flood Mitigation Efforts and Facing Greater Impact? A Method to Assess Racial Inequality at the Census Tract Level
Development policies have systematically relegated certain populations to undesirable locations including areas at risk of flooding. Over time many properties will no longer be inhabitable and others will see damage from significant flooding. Current U.S. federal policy funds flood risk mitigation measures, such as property acquisition, relocation, and retrofitting; however, depending on various factors at the subcounty level, these actions can in some contexts provide disproportionate benefit to higher income, mostly White areas, failing to appropriately benefit underserved and exposed populations. Here, we present an exploratory method, building off existing research on programmatic-wide and event-specific analysis to explore patterns allowing state- and county-level decision-makers to identify inequalities in federal funding, potentially supporting reprioritization. This work evaluates the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claims data from 1975 to 2019 and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) mitigation efforts from 1989 to 2018 to explore the distribution of mitigation measures related to tract to county racial disproportionalities (for example, majority non-White census tracts in majority White counties). We find that for majority non-White census tracts in majority White counties, there are disproportionately fewer NFIP claims. This supports previous work, which shows lower levels of assistance in flood recovery, resilience, and preparedness in these areas
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Impact of flooding on food security across Africa
Recent record rainfall and flood events have prompted increased attention to flood impacts on human systems. Information regarding flood effects on food security is of particular importance for humanitarian organizations and is especially valuable across Africa’s rural areas that contribute to regional food supplies. We quantitatively evaluate where and to what extent flooding impacts food security across Africa, using a Granger causality analysis and panel modeling approaches. Within our modeled areas, we find that ∼12% of the people that experienced food insecurity from 2009 to 2020 had their food security status affected by flooding. Furthermore, flooding and its associated mete- orological conditions can simultaneously degrade food security locally while enhancing it at regional spatial scales, leading to large variations in overall food security outcomes. Dedicated data collection at the intersection of flood events and associated food security measures across different spatial and temporal scales are required to better characterize the extent of flood impact and inform preparedness, response, and recovery needs
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Re-prioritizing climate services for agriculture: Insights from Bangladesh
Considerable progress has been made in establishing climate service capabilities over the last few decades, but the gap between the resulting services and national needs remains large. Using climate services for agriculture in Bangladesh as a case study example, we highlight mismatches between local needs on the one hand, and international initiatives that have focused largely on prediction on the other, and we make suggestions for addressing such mismatches in similar settings. To achieve greater benefit at the national level, there should be a stronger focus on addressing important preliminaries for building services. These preliminaries include the identification of priorities, the definition of responsibilities and expectations, the development of climate services skills, and the construction of a high-quality and easily usable national climate record. Once appropriate institutional, human resources and data infrastructure are in place, the implementation of a climate monitoring and watch system would form a more logical basis for initial climate service implementation than attempting to promote sub-seasonal to seasonal climate forecasting, especially when and where the inherent predictability is limited at best. When and where forecasting at these scales is viable, efforts should focus on defining and predicting high-impact events important for decision making, rather than on simple seasonal aggregates that often correlate poorly with outcomes. Some such forecasts may be more skillful than the 3- to 4-month seasonal aggregates that have become the internationally adopted standard. By establishing a firm foundation for climate services within National Meteorological Services, there is a greater chance that individual climate service development initiatives will be sustainable after their respective project lifetimes
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Recommendations for improved tropical cyclone formation and position probabilistic Forecast products
Prediction of the potentially devastating impact of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) relies substantially on numerical prediction systems. Due to the limited predictability of TCs and the need to express forecast confidence and possible scenarios, it is vital to exploit the benefits of dynamic ensemble forecasts in operational TC forecasts and warnings. RSMCs, TCWCs, and other forecast centers value probabilistic guidance for TCs, but the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-9) found that the “pull-through” of probabilistic information to operational warnings using those forecasts is slow. IWTC-9 recommendations led to the formation of the WMO/WWRP Tropical Cyclone-Probabilistic Forecast Products (TC-PFP) project, which is also endorsed as a WMO Seamless GDPFS Pilot Project. The main goal of TC-PFP is to coordinate across forecast centers to help identify best practice guidance for probabilistic TC forecasts. TC-PFP is being implemented in 3 phases: Phase 1 (TC formation and position); Phase 2 (TC intensity and structure); and Phase 3 (TC related rainfall and storm surge). This article provides a summary of Phase 1 and reviews the current state of the science of probabilistic forecasting of TC formation and position. There is considerable variability in the nature and interpretation of forecast products based on ensemble information, making it challenging to transfer knowledge of best practices across forecast centers. Communication among forecast centers regarding the effectiveness of different approaches would be helpful for conveying best practices. Close collaboration with experts experienced in communicating complex probabilistic TC information and sharing of best practices between centers would help to ensure effective decisions can be made based on TC forecasts. Finally, forecast centers need timely access to ensemble information that has consistent, user-friendly ensemble information. Greater consistency across forecast centers in data accessibility, probabilistic forecast products, and warnings and their communication to users will produce more reliable information and support improved outcomes