Predictive Non-equilibrium Social Science

Non-Equilibrium Social Science (NESS) emphasizes dynamical phenomena, for instance the way political movements emerge or competing organizations interact. This paper argues that predictive analysis is an essential element of NESS, occupying a central role in its scientific inquiry and representing a key activity of practitioners in domains such as economics, public policy, and national security. We begin by clarifying the distinction between models which are useful for prediction and the much more common explanatory models studied in the social sciences. We then investigate a challenging real-world predictive analysis case study, and find evidence that the poor performance of standard prediction methods does not indicate an absence of human predictability but instead reflects (1.) incorrect assumptions concerning the predictive utility of explanatory models, (2.) misunderstanding regarding which features of social dynamics actually possess predictive power, and (3.) practical difficulties exploiting predictive representations.Comment: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1212.680

Traditional Biocidal Replacement Viability of Microcrystalline Silver Chloride

The antimicrobial effects of silver ions and silver chloride nanoparticles have been well established while the efficacy of microcrystalline silver chloride has been less studied. Certex-AM, a microcrystalline silver chloride product produced by Cerion, Rochester, NY, was tested for its antimicrobial properties as a possible replacement for traditional biocidal techniques used in water cooling towers. The minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of the compound was determined using a microtiter broth assay. The compound was found to have inhibitory effects on bacterial growth for all tested organisms at concentrations greater than 9 ppm. Additional testing simulating a water cooling system showed the effectiveness of reducing an established wild population at concentrations of 10 ppm of the microcrystalline silver chloride. Certex-AM was found to be a promising replacement for traditional biocides as well as for other applications. Introduction of effective antimicrobial compounds such as this could reduce the pathogenic risk to humans associated with water cooling towers

Characteristics of Lightning Within Electrified Snowfall Events Using Lightning Mapping Arrays

This study examined 34 lightning flashes within four separate thundersnow events derived from lightning mapping arrays (LMAs) in northern Alabama, central Oklahoma, and Washington, DC. The goals were to characterize the in-cloud component of each lightning flash, as well as the correspondence between the LMA observations and lightning data taken from national lightning networks like the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). Individual flashes were examined in detail to highlight several observations within the dataset. The study results demonstrated that the structures of these flashes were primarily normal polarity. The mean area encompassed by this set of flashes is 375 square kilometers, with a maximum flash extent of 2300 square kilometers, a minimum of 3 square kilometers, and a median of 128 square kilometers. An average of 2.29 NLDN flashes were recorded per LMA-derived lightning flash. A maximum of 11 NLDN flashes were recorded in association with a single LMA-derived flash on 10 January 2011. Additionally, seven of the 34 flashes in the study contain zero NLDN identified flashes. Eleven of the 34 flashes initiated from tall human-made objects (e.g., communication towers). In at least six lightning flashes, the NLDN detected a return stroke from the cloud back to the tower and not the initial upward leader. This study also discusses lightning's interaction with the human built environment and provides an example of lightning within heavy snowfall observed by GOES-16's Geostationary Lightning Mapper

Impact of an A ntimicrobial S tewardship P rogram C omprehensive C are B undle on M anagement of C andidemia

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/96246/1/phar1186.pd