Policy analysis using DSGE models: an introduction

Many central banks have come to rely on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, or DSGE, models to inform their economic outlook and to help formulate their policy strategies. But while their use is familiar to policymakers and academics, these models are typically not well known outside these circles. This article introduces the basic structure, logic, and application of the DSGE framework to a broader public by providing an example of its use in monetary policy analysis. The authors present and estimate a simple New Keynesian DSGE model, highlighting the core features that this basic specification shares with more elaborate versions. They then apply the estimated model to study the sources of the sudden increase in inflation that occurred in the first half of 2004. One important lesson derived from this exercise is that the management of expectations can be a more effective tool for stabilizing inflation than actual movements in the policy rate. This result is consistent with the increasing focus on the pronouncements of central bankers regarding their future actions.Econometric models ; Stochastic analysis ; Keynesian economics ; Inflation (Finance) ; Monetary policy ; Banks and banking, Central

Inheritance of fruit colour in the Solanum nigrum complex

In the Solatium nigrum complex there is wide variability in the fruit colour. In 17 accessions representing diploids, tetraploids and hexaploids, dark shining blue, dull blue, bright red, orange red, yellowish-red and translucent green were observed in the different accessions. Blue is inherited as dominant over red and translucent green; however, the results obtained in crosses between blue and translucent green cannot be explained on the basis of this simple relationship and it is tentatively assumed that duplicate*genes are involved in this case. In the tetraploids S. nigrum, S. villosum and S. miniatum the different shades of red seem to be controlled by alleles at the same locus

Mhd Stagnation Point Flow of a Jeffrey Fluid Over a Stretching/Shrinking Sheet through Porous Medium

In this analysis the MHD stagnation point flow of Jeffrey fluid over a stretching/shrinking sheet through porous medium is studied. The governing partial differential equations are transformed into nonlinear ordinary differential equation using the similarity transformations and are solved shooting technique. The effects of governing parameters on the velocity, the temperature and the concentration while the skin friction coefficients, the rate of heat transfer are studied graphically. Keywords: MHD; Jeffrey fluid, stretching/shrinking sheet, Porous medium

TRIPOLAR FUZZY SOFT IDEALS AND TRIPOLAR FUZZY SOFT INTERIOR IDEALS OVER Γ−SEMIRING

In this paper, we have introduced the notion of tripolar fuzzy soft $\Gamma -$subsemi-ring,tripolar fuzzy soft ideal, tripolar fuzzy soft interior ideals over $\Gamma -$semiring and also studiedsome of their algebraic properties and the relations between them

Ethnomedicinal plants used by the tribals of Sudi Konda Forest, East Godavari District, Andhra Pradesh to cure women problems

The paper deals with 27 plant species belonging to 25 genera of 20 families to cure women problems prevalent among the tribals of Sudi konda forest area of East Godavari district, Andhra Pradesh are reported along with local name, methods of administration and prescribed doses

On calibrated weights in stratified sampling

In this paper, we propose a calibration estimator of population mean in stratified sampling using the known mean and variance information from multi-auxiliary variables. The problem of determining the optimum calibrated weights is formulated as a Nonlinear Programming Problem (NLPP) that is solved using the Lagrange multiplier technique. Numerical example with real data is presented to illustrate the computational details of the proposed estimator. A comparison study is also carried out using real and simulated data to evaluate the performance and the usefulness of the proposed estimator. The study reveals that the proposed estimator with multi-auxiliary information is more efficient estimator of the population mean as it provides least estimated variance and highest gain in relative efficiency (RE). References Jean Claude Deville and Carl Erik Sarndal. Calibration estimators in survey sampling. Journal of the American statistical Association, 87(418):376–382, 1992. doi:10.1080/01621459.1992.10475217. Victor M Estevao and Carl Erik Sarndal. Survey estimates by calibration on complex auxiliary information. International Statistical Review, 74(2):127–147, 2006. doi:110.1111/j.1751-5823.2006.tb00165.x Patrick J Farrell and Sarjinder Singh. Model-assisted higher-order calibration of estimators of variance. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics, 47(3):375–383, 2005. doi:10.1111/j.1467-842X.2005.00402.x Wolfram Research, Inc. Mathematica, Version 11.3. Champaign, IL, 2018. Jong Min Kim, Engin A Sungur, and Tae Young Heo. Calibration approach estimators in stratified sampling. Statistics and probability letters, 77(1):99–103, 2007. doi:10.1016/j.spl.2006.05.015 Phillip S Kott. Using calibration weighting to adjust for nonresponse and coverage errors. Survey Methodology, 32(2):133, 2006. Dinesh K Rao. Mathematical programing in stratified random sampling. PhD thesis, School of Computing, Information and Mathematical Sciences, The University of the South Pacific, Fiji, February 2017. Dinesh K. Rao, Tokaua. Tekabu, and Mohammad G M Khan. New calibration estimators in stratified sampling. In Proceedings of Asia-Pacific World Congress on Computer Science and Engineering, pages 66–70. IEEE, 2016. Gurmindar K Singh, Dinesh K Rao, and Mohammed GM Khan. Calibration estimator of population mean in stratified random sampling. In Proceedings of Asia-Pacific World Congress on Computer Science and Engineering (APWC on CSE), pages 1–5. IEEE, 2014. Sarjindar Singh, Stephen Horn, and Frank Yu. Estimation of variance of general regression estimator: Higher level calibration approach. Survey Methodology, 24:41–50, 1998. Sarjinder Singh. Advanced Sampling Theory With Applications: How Michael "Selected" Amy, volume I and II. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Netherlands, 2003. Sarjinder Singh. On the calibration of design weights using a displacement function. Metrika, 75(1):85–107, 2012. doi:10.1007/s00184-010-0316-6 Sarjinder Singh, Stephen Horn, Sadeq Chowdhury, and Frank Yu. Theory and methods: Calibration of the estimators of variance. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics, 41(2):199–212, 1999. doi:10.1111/1467-842X.00074 D S Tracy, S Singh, and R Arnab. Note on calibration in stratified and double sampling. Survey Methodology, 29(1):99–104, 2003. Changbao Wu and Randy R Sitter. A model-calibration approach to using complete auxiliary information from survey data. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 96(453):185–193, 2001. doi:10.1198/01621450175033305

On calibrated weights in stratified sampling

In this paper, we propose a calibration estimator of population mean in stratified sampling using the known mean and variance information from multi-auxiliary variables. The problem of determining the optimum calibrated weights is formulated as a Nonlinear Programming Problem (NLPP) that is solved using the Lagrange multiplier technique. Numerical example with real data is presented to illustrate the computational details of the proposed estimator. A comparison study is also carried out using real and simulated data to evaluate the performance and the usefulness of the proposed estimator. The study reveals that the proposed estimator with multi-auxiliary information is more efficient estimator of the population mean as it provides least estimated variance and highest gain in relative efficiency (RE). References Jean Claude Deville and Carl Erik Sarndal. Calibration estimators in survey sampling. Journal of the American statistical Association, 87(418):376–382, 1992. doi:10.1080/01621459.1992.10475217. Victor M Estevao and Carl Erik Sarndal. Survey estimates by calibration on complex auxiliary information. International Statistical Review, 74(2):127–147, 2006. doi:110.1111/j.1751-5823.2006.tb00165.x Patrick J Farrell and Sarjinder Singh. Model-assisted higher-order calibration of estimators of variance. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics, 47(3):375–383, 2005. doi:10.1111/j.1467-842X.2005.00402.x Wolfram Research, Inc. Mathematica, Version 11.3. Champaign, IL, 2018. Jong Min Kim, Engin A Sungur, and Tae Young Heo. Calibration approach estimators in stratified sampling. Statistics and probability letters, 77(1):99–103, 2007. doi:10.1016/j.spl.2006.05.015 Phillip S Kott. Using calibration weighting to adjust for nonresponse and coverage errors. Survey Methodology, 32(2):133, 2006. Dinesh K Rao. Mathematical programing in stratified random sampling. PhD thesis, School of Computing, Information and Mathematical Sciences, The University of the South Pacific, Fiji, February 2017. Dinesh K. Rao, Tokaua. Tekabu, and Mohammad G M Khan. New calibration estimators in stratified sampling. In Proceedings of Asia-Pacific World Congress on Computer Science and Engineering, pages 66–70. IEEE, 2016. Gurmindar K Singh, Dinesh K Rao, and Mohammed GM Khan. Calibration estimator of population mean in stratified random sampling. In Proceedings of Asia-Pacific World Congress on Computer Science and Engineering (APWC on CSE), pages 1–5. IEEE, 2014. Sarjindar Singh, Stephen Horn, and Frank Yu. Estimation of variance of general regression estimator: Higher level calibration approach. Survey Methodology, 24:41–50, 1998. Sarjinder Singh. Advanced Sampling Theory With Applications: How Michael "Selected" Amy, volume I and II. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Netherlands, 2003. Sarjinder Singh. On the calibration of design weights using a displacement function. Metrika, 75(1):85–107, 2012. doi:10.1007/s00184-010-0316-6 Sarjinder Singh, Stephen Horn, Sadeq Chowdhury, and Frank Yu. Theory and methods: Calibration of the estimators of variance. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics, 41(2):199–212, 1999. doi:10.1111/1467-842X.00074 D S Tracy, S Singh, and R Arnab. Note on calibration in stratified and double sampling. Survey Methodology, 29(1):99–104, 2003. Changbao Wu and Randy R Sitter. A model-calibration approach to using complete auxiliary information from survey data. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 96(453):185–193, 2001. doi:10.1198/01621450175033305