Sources of employment change in the Tenth District

Creating jobs is often the primary goal of economic development policy. To help target their job creation efforts, policymakers generally examine net changes in the official employment figures. But relying solely on net changes can often hide important gross changes that influence the dynamics of job creation and destruction. Knowing where jobs are currently being created and destroyed in an economy can help policymakers design and target their economic development efforts.Employment (Economic theory) ; Federal Reserve District, 10th ; Manufactures

Does Decentralized Welfare Reform Lead to a Race to the Bottom in Local Economic Development and Local Public Services?

This paper tests the hypothesis that devolution of welfare programs leads to heightened intergovernmental competition and a "race to the bottom" in the provision of local public services. Data from a national survey of county governments is used to estimate an econometric model of strategic interaction by county governments.Community/Rural/Urban Development,

The Emerging Roles of County Governments in Rural America: Findings from a Recent National Survey

County governments are the fastest growing level of local government in the United States. Based on a recent survey of counties in 45 states, this paper analyzes the size of county governments relative to other local governments, the scope of county government services, and fiscal stress faced by county governments.Public Economics,

SOCIAL NETWORKS, SOCIAL CAPITAL AND COMMUNITY ECONOMIC GROWTH

We assess empirically whether social capital affects economic growth in selected United States communities. Social network measures, computed from survey data, are used as proxies for social capital. These measures are used in a conditional convergence growth model to explain the variation of per capita income in the communities.Community/Rural/Urban Development,

Weather Vulnerability, Climate Change, and Food Security in Mt. Kilimanjaro

This study estimates the impact of rainfall variation on livelihood in Mt. Kilimanjaro using the Ricardian approach to capture farmers’ adaptation strategies to cope with climate change risks. The data for the analysis were gathered from a random sample of over 200 households in 15 villages and precipitation from rainfall observation posts placed in each of the surveyed villages. The precipitation data provide information on the effect of moisture at critical months in the growing season. Due to prevalence of intercropping among local farmers, the present study develops a multivariate model that assumes endogeneity between crop yields. Doing so allows the study to capture adaptation strategies that smallholders use by diversifying farm portfolio. The results indicate that Mt. Kilimanjaro agriculture is vulnerable to precipitation variation. However, farm vulnerability is heterogeneous across space, crops and, months. Location varying inputs are responsible for substantial percentage of crop yield. The study found ambiguous evidence about the ability of irrigation usage to reduce crop vulnerability to precipitation variation, but suggests that proper cost benefit analysis ought to be done in order to measure the welfare value of irrigation. In terms of future food security, climate simulations reveal that by 2029, it will no longer be ideal to produce coffee in Mt. Kilimanjaro if precipitation annually decreases by a minimum rate of 2%. While maize production will also suffer severe production reduction, banana production will decrease but not in an alarming rate by 2029.Climate Change, Precipitation Variability, Food Security, Irrigation, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, Q1, Q5,

Risk Belief, Producer Demand, and Valuation of Improved Irrigations: Results from Field Experiments in Mt. Kilimanjaro

This paper systematically estimates the potential benefit of introducing improved irrigation schemes in Mt. Kilimanjaro to help rain dependent farmers cope with the risks of climate change. The study uses Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) to elicit farmers’ Willingness to Pay (WTP) for eliminating the risks of crop loss by accessing improved irrigation schemes. Data for the analysis were gathered using a double bounded survey from over 200 randomly-sampled farmers in 15 villages. The study makes a contribution to the applied welfare literature and should also be useful for policymakers in Africa. The policy contribution consists of valuation of improved irrigation in the presence of climate change risks. The applied welfare contribution consists of empirical evidence about the impact of farmer’s risk aversion on welfare valuation. Pratt and Zeckhauser (1996) argue on conceptual grounds that in the absence of complete contingent claims market, individual WTP per unit of risk reduction will depend significantly on the level of risk and the magnitude of reduction that is offered. The present study captures individual farmer’s risk exposure by constructing an index for farmers’ expected rainfall. Since mean WTP is nonlinear in its parameters, mean WTP is computed based on the Krinsky and Robb (1986) method, which simulates the confidence interval and the achieved significance levels (ASL) for testing the null hypothesis that WTP≤0. The results show that farmers with lower expectations about future rainfall are willing to pay more for accessing the improved irrigation scheme. In addition, Mt. Kilimanjaro farmers are willing to pay up to 10% of their income to have access to improved irrigation canals. Assuming a 5% discount rate, the study found that farmers will reimburse the cost of building the irrigation scheme after 7 to 9 years.Willingness to Pay, Climate Change, Irrigation, Risk Belief, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, Q12, Q18, Q25, Q51, Q56,

Explaining Poverty in Uganda: Evidence from the Uganda National Household Survey

The broad aim of the research was to establish a tool for identifying cost effective poverty alleviation strategies in Uganda. The objectives were to test hypotheses on causes of poverty in Uganda and to develop a poverty simulation model for policy analysis. Data for 9,710 households from the 2002/2003 Uganda National Household Survey (UNHS) was used to estimate a semi-log econometric model. The model included 19 households level characteristics and 8 community level characteristics as explanatory variables. The dependent variable was the natural logarithm of household consumption per adult equivalent. The model was estimated at both national and regional (5 regions) by weighted least squares with robust variance. The results identified 8 particularly promising poverty reducing policies namely: expansion of formal employment, secondary education, reduction in population growth, rural electrification, off-farm activities, collateral free credit, telephone services and reducing distance to community services. The study highlights the policy implications of the results.Food Security and Poverty,

VALUE-ADDED ACTIVITIES AS A RURAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY

Community/Rural/Urban Development,

Adaptation to Climate Change in a Rural Economy with Missing Markets

Community/Rural/Urban Development, Environmental Economics and Policy,

EMPLOYER SIZE, HUMAN CAPITAL, AND RURAL WAGES: IMPLICATIONS FOR SOUTHERN RURAL DEVELOPMENT

A recent trend in rural development policy emphasizes small business development in place of industrial recruitment. To analyze some of the likely effects of expanding the proportion of small firms in local economies, an empirical wage rate model incorporating employer size was developed, and parameters were estimated using household date from rural Putnam County, Georgia. The estimates indicated that large employers offered higher wages than small employers and that the wage premium they offered was greater for blacks than for whites. These results support Thomas Till's argument that southern rural counties with relatively large black populations should not abandon efforts to attract large employers. Other factors associated with higher wages included level of education, previous labor force experience, and employment in certain occupations and industries.Community/Rural/Urban Development, Labor and Human Capital,