The Delphi Method for Graduate Research

Introduction It continues to be an exciting time to be a researcher in the information systems discipline; there seems to be a plethora of interesting and pressing research topics suitable for research at the masters or PhD level. Researchers may want to look forward to see what will be the key information systems issues in a wireless world, the ethical dilemmas in social network analysis, and the lessons early adopters learn. Practitioners may be interested in what others think about the strengths and weaknesses of an existing information system, or the effectiveness of a newly implemented information system. The Delphi method can help to uncover data in these research directions. The Delphi method is an iterative process used to collect and distill the judgments of experts using a series of questionnaires interspersed with feedback. The questionnaires are designed to focus on problems, opportunities, solutions, or forecasts. Each subsequent questionnaire is developed based on the results of the previous questionnaire. The process stops when the research question is answered: for example, when consensus is reached, theoretical saturation is achieved, or when sufficient information has been exchanged. The Delphi method has its origins in the American business community, and has since been widely accepted throughout the world in many industry sectors including health care, defense, business, education, information technology, transportation and engineering. The Delphi method\u27s flexibility is evident in how it has been used. It is a method for structuring a group communication process to facilitate group problem solving and to structure models (Linstone & Turloff, 1975). The method can also be used as a judgment, decision-aiding or forecasting tool (Rowe & Wright, 1999), and can be applied to program planning and administration (Delbeq, Van de Ven, & Gustafson, 1975). The Delphi method can be used when there is incomplete knowledge about a problem or phenomena (Adler & Ziglio, 1996; Delbeq et al., 1975). The method can be applied to problems that do not lend themselves to precise analytical techniques but rather could benefit from the subjective judgments of individuals on a collective basis (Adler & Ziglio, 1996) and to focus their collective human intelligence on the problem at hand (Linstone & Turloff, 1975). Also, the Delphi is used to investigate what does not yet exist (Czinkota & Ronkainen, 1997; Halal, Kull, & Leffmann, 1997; Skulmoski & Hartman 2002). The Delphi method is a mature and a very adaptable research method used in many research arenas by researchers across the globe. To better understand its diversity in application, one needs to consider the origins of the Delphi method. The Classical Delphi The original Delphi method was developed by Norman Dalkey of the RAND Corporation in the 1950\u27s for a U.S. sponsored military project. Dalkey states that the goal of the project was to solicit expert opinion to the selection, from the point of view of a Soviet strategic planner, of an optimal U.S. industrial target system and to the estimation of the number of A-bombs required to reduce the munitions output by a prescribed amount, (Dalkey & Helmer, 1963, p. 458). Rowe and Wright (1999) characterize the classical Delphi method by four key features: 1. Anonymity of Delphi participants: allows the participants to freely express their opinions without undue social pressures to conform from others in the group. Decisions are evaluated on their merit, rather than who has proposed the idea. 2. Iteration: allows the participants to refine their views in light of the progress of the group\u27s work from round to round. 3. Controlled feedback: informs the participants of the other participant\u27s perspectives, and provides the opportunity for Delphi participants to clarify or change their views. 4. Statistical aggregation of group response: allows for a quantitative analysis and interpretation of data.

Paradoxical impact of socioeconomic factors on outcome of atrial fibrillation in Europe: trends in incidence and mortality from atrial fibrillation

Aims: To understand the changing trends in Atrial Fibrillation (AF) incidence and mortality across Europe from 1990 to 2017, and how socioeconomic factors and sex differences play a role. Methods and Results: We performed a temporal analysis of data from the 2017 Global Burden of Disease Database for 20 countries across Europe using Joinpoint regression analysis. Age-adjusted incidence, mortality and mortality to incidence ratios (MIRs) to approximate case fatality rate are presented. Incidence and mortality trends were heterogenous throughout Europe, with Austria, Denmark and Sweden experiencing peaks in incidence in the middle of the study period. Mortality rates were higher in wealthier countries with the highest being Sweden for both men and women (8.83 and 8.88 per 100,000, respectively) in 2017. MIRs were higher in women in all countries studied, with the disparity increasing the most over time in Germany (43.6% higher in women versus men in 1990 to 74.5% higher in women in 2017). Conclusion: AF incidence and mortality across Europe did not show a general trend, but unique patterns for some nations were observed. Higher mortality rates were observed in wealthier countries, potentially secondary to a survivor effect where patients survive long enough to suffer from AF and its complications. Outcomes for women with AF were worse than men, represented by higher MIRs. This suggests there is widespread healthcare inequality between the sexes across Europe, or that there are biological differences between them in terms of their risk of adverse outcomes from A

SLIP4EX- a program for routine slope stability analysis to include the effects of vegetation, reinforcement and hydrological changes

SLIP4EX is a straightforward computer program developed in connection with the EU funded ECOSLOPES project for routine stability analysis and the assessment of the contribution of vegetation to slope stability. The slope section is drawn up and dimensions and parameters are fed in to the Microsoft Excel based program for stability calculations and comparisons of Factors of Safety using different methods of analysis (Bishop, Janbu, Fellenius, Simple, Greenwood). The background and assumptions involved in the derivation of each of the methods is briefly described. The simplicity of the program enables the user to understand the nature of the analysis, explore the parameter assumptions made and compare the different methods of analysis. Soil reinforcement by geosynthetic layers or anchors, and vegetation effects of enhanced cohesion, changed water pressures, mass of vegetation, wind forces and root reinforcement forces are readily included in the analysis. The program is freely available on request from the author

Concentrations of Polychlorinated Biphenyls (PCB’s), Chlorinated Pesticides, and Heavy Metals and Other Elements in Tissues of Belugas, Delphinapterus leucas, from Cook Inlet

Tissues from Cook Inlet beluga whales, Delphinapterus leucas, that were collected as part of the Alaska Marine Mammal Tissue Archival Project were analyzed for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB’s), chlorinated pesticides, and heavy metals and other elements. Concentrations of total PCB’s (ΣPCB’s), total DDT (ΣDDT), chlordane compounds, hexachlorobenzene (HCB), dieldrin, mirex, toxaphene, and hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) measured in Cook Inlet beluga blubber were compared with those reported for belugas from two Arctic Alaska locations (Point Hope and Point Lay), Greenland, Arctic Canada, and the highly contaminated stock from the St. Lawrence estuary in eastern Canada. The Arctic and Cook Inlet belugas had much lower concentrations (ΣPCB’s and ΣDDT were an order of magnitude lower) than those found in animals from the St. Lawrence estuary. The Cook Inlet belugas had the lowest concentrations of all (ΣPCB’s aver-aged 1.49 ± 0.70 and 0.79 ± 0.56 mg/kg wet mass, and ΣDDT averaged 1.35 ± 0.73 and 0.59 ± 0.45 mg/kg in males and females, respectively). Concentrations in the blubber of the Cook Inlet males were significantly lower than those found in the males of the Arctic Alaska belugas (ΣPCB’s and ΣDDT were about half). The lower levels in the Cook Inlet animals might be due to differences in contaminant sources, food web differences, or different age distributions among the animals sampled. Cook Inlet males had higher mean and median concentrations than did females, a result attributable to the transfer of these compounds from mother to calf during pregnancy and during lactation. Liver concentrations of cadmium and mercury were lower in the Cook Inlet belugas (most cadmium values were <1 mg/kg and mercury values were 0.704–11.42 mg/kg wet mass), but copper levels were significantly higher in the Cook Inlet animals (3.97–123.8 mg/kg wet mass) than in Arctic Alaska animals and similar to those reported for belugas from Hudson Bay. Although total mercury levels were the lowest in the Cook Inlet population, methylmercury concentrations were similar among all three groups of the Alaska animals examined (0.34–2.11 mg/kg wet mass). As has been reported for the Point Hope and Point Lay belugas, hepatic concentrations of silver were r

Effects of fluoxetine on the oral environment of bulimics

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/73809/1/j.1399-302X.1993.tb00545.x.pd

Classical versus quantum dynamics of the atomic Josephson junction

We compare the classical (mean-field) dynamics with the quantum dynamics of atomic Bose-Einstein condensates in double-well potentials. The quantum dynamics are computed using a simple scheme based upon the Raman-Nath equations. Two different methods for exciting a non-equilbrium state are considered: an asymmetry between the wells which is suddenly removed, and a periodic time oscillating asymmetry. The first method generates wave packets that lead to collapses and revivals of the expectation values of the macroscopic variables, and we calculate the time scale for these revivals. The second method permits the excitation of a single energy eigenstate of the many-particle system, including Schroedinger cat states. We also discuss a band theory interpretation of the energy level structure of an asymmetric double-well, thereby identifying analogies to Bloch oscillations and Bragg resonances. Both the Bloch and Bragg dynamics are purely quantum and are not contained in the mean-field treatment.Comment: 31 pages, 14 figure

Avoided intersections of nodal lines

We consider real eigen-functions of the Schr\"odinger operator in 2-d. The nodal lines of separable systems form a regular grid, and the number of nodal crossings equals the number of nodal domains. In contrast, for wave functions of non integrable systems nodal intersections are rare, and for random waves, the expected number of intersections in any finite area vanishes. However, nodal lines display characteristic avoided crossings which we study in the present work. We define a measure for the avoidance range and compute its distribution for the random waves ensemble. We show that the avoidance range distribution of wave functions of chaotic systems follow the expected random wave distributions, whereas for wave functions of classically integrable but quantum non-separable wave functions, the distribution is quite different. Thus, the study of the avoidance distribution provides more support to the conjecture that nodal structures of chaotic systems are reproduced by the predictions of the random waves ensemble.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figure