Estimating the stochastic uncertainty in sample-based estimates of infant mortality in Ghana

The Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) is an important population health statistic often used as one of the indicators of the health status of a nation. In many countries lacking adequate vital registration systems, sample methods are used to estimate IMRs. However, evaluations of this approach are rare and the literature contains no assessments of the stochastic uncertainty underlying these estimated IMRs. Stochastic uncertainty reflects the fact that even where the underlying IMR is constant in a small population over time, there is a likelihood of yearly fluctuation in its empirical observations even if it is measured from a complete count of the events of interest. In this study a method is presented that can be used to assess this stochastic uncertainty. We use the country of Ghana as a case study for this purpose. The method, a beta-binomial model, is described, tested for validity, and illustrated using 2014 sample-based estimates of IMR for 13 sample regions in Ghana. As such, the approach we described regarding the revision of sample-based IMR estimates is aimed at taking into account of the stochastic uncertainty while preserving the information concerning the uncertainty due to sampling. In applying the method to Ghana, we find that the sample-based IMR estimates perform well in accounting for stochastic uncertainty and could be applied elsewhere

Estimating the underlying infant mortality rates for small populations, including those reporting zero infant deaths: A case study of counties in California

Infant mortality is an important population health statistic that is often used to make health policy decisions. For a small population, an infant mortality rate is subject to high levels of uncertainty and may not indicate the “underlying” mortality regime affecting the population. This situation leads some agencies to either not report infant mortality for these populations or report infant mortality aggregated over space, time or both. A method is presented for estimating “underlying” infant mortality rates that reflect the intrinsic mortality regimes of small populations. The method is described and illustrated in a case study by estimating IMRs for the 15 counties in California where zero infant deaths are reported at the county level for the period 2009-2011. We know that among these 15 counties there are 50 infant deaths reported at the state level but not for the counties in which they occurred. The method’s validity is tested using a synthetic population in the form of a simulated data set generated from a model life table infant mortality rate, representing Level 23 of the West Family Model Life Table for both sexes. The test indicates that the method is capable of producing estimates that represent underlying rates. In this regard, the method described here may assist in the generation of information about the health status of small populations

Motivation of the skilled workforce in the construction industry of South Africa

ii ABSTRACT Job expectation and satisfaction are very important to the skilled workforce in the construction industry of South Africa. The industry pays a heavy price for a demotivated worker; the outcome is dissatisfying work, friction on the job, time theft, sub - standard output in terms of quality of productivity and absenteeism. Motivation in the construction industry is a step by step and day by day practical approach in motivating the skilled workforce which helps site managers to run the industry smoothly and increases work output in terms of productivity. Motivation to work well and increased output has a relationship to job expectation and satisfaction. Motivation in the construction industry is concern with why people behave in a certain way, and why they choose a certain course of action in preference to others

Association of temporal factors and suicides in the United States, 2000–2004

The purpose of the study was to examine the association of temporal factors, in particular days of the week and seasons of the year and death from suicide in the United States. Data were pooled from the Multiple Cause of Death Files. Hierarchical logistic regression models were fitted to all deaths occurring in 2000 through 2004 by suicide. The incidence of suicide was significantly higher on Wednesdays, compared to Sunday. Specifically, individuals were 99% more likely to kill themselves on Wednesday than on Sunday. Suicides were more prevalent in the summer months, and they were less likely to occur in winter. The state suicide rate significantly elevated individual suicide risk. The results held even after controlling for the potentially confounding effects of socio-economic and demographic variables at both the individual and state levels. It was concluded that the observed association between seasonality and suicide cannot be discounted as a mere coincidence. Future research ought to focus on integrating individual level data and contextual variables when testing for seasonality effects

MATES in Construction: Impact of a Multimodal, Community-Based Program for Suicide Prevention in the Construction Industry

A large-scale workplace-based suicide prevention and early intervention program was delivered to over 9,000 construction workers on building sites across Queensland. Intervention components included universal General Awareness Training (GAT; general mental health with a focus on suicide prevention); gatekeeper training provided to construction worker volunteer ‘Connectors’; Suicide First Aid (ASIST) training offered to key workers; outreach support provided by trained and supervised MIC staff; state-wide suicide prevention hotline; case management service; and postvention support provided in the event of a suicide. Findings from over 7,000 workers (April 2008 to November 2010) are reported, indicating strong construction industry support, with 67% building sites and employers approached agreeing to participate in MIC. GAT participants demonstrated significantly increased suicide prevention awareness compared with a comparison group. Connector training participants rated MIC as helpful and effective, felt prepared to intervene with a suicidal person, and knew where to seek help for a suicidal individual following the training. Workers engaged positively with the after-hours crisis support phone line and case management. MIC provided postvention support to 10 non-MIC sites and sites engaged with MIC, but not yet MIC-compliant. Current findings support the potential effectiveness and social validity of MIC for preventing suicide in construction workers

Impact of socioeconomic deprivation on rate and cause of death in severe mental illness

Background: Socioeconomic status has important associations with disease-specific mortality in the general population. Although individuals with Severe Mental Illnesses (SMI) experience significant premature mortality, the relationship between socioeconomic status and mortality in this group remains under investigated.<p></p> Aims: To assess the impact of socioeconomic status on rate and cause of death in individuals with SMI (schizophrenia and bipolar disorder) relative to the local (Glasgow) and wider (Scottish) populations.<p></p> Methods: Cause and age of death during 2006-2010 inclusive for individuals with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder registered on the Glasgow Psychosis Clinical Information System (PsyCIS) were obtained by linkage to the Scottish General Register Office (GRO). Rate and cause of death by socioeconomic status, measured by Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD), were compared to the Glasgow and Scottish populations.<p></p> Results: Death rates were higher in people with SMI across all socioeconomic quintiles compared to the Glasgow and Scottish populations, and persisted when suicide was excluded. Differences were largest in the most deprived quintile (794.6 per 10,000 population vs. 274.7 and 252.4 for Glasgow and Scotland respectively). Cause of death varied by socioeconomic status. For those living in the most deprived quintile, higher drug-related deaths occurred in those with SMI compared to local Glasgow and wider Scottish population rates (12.3% vs. 5.9%, p = <0.001 and 5.1% p = 0.002 respectively). A lower proportion of deaths due to cancer in those with SMI living in the most deprived quintile were also observed, relative to the local Glasgow and wider Scottish populations (12.3% vs. 25.1% p = 0.013 and 26.3% p = <0.001). The proportion of suicides was significantly higher in those with SMI living in the more affluent quintiles relative to Glasgow and Scotland (54.6% vs. 5.8%, p = <0.001 and 5.5%, p = <0.001). Discussion and conclusions: Excess mortality in those with SMI occurred across all socioeconomic quintiles compared to the Glasgow and Scottish populations but was most marked in the most deprived quintiles when suicide was excluded as a cause of death. Further work assessing the impact of socioeconomic status on specific causes of premature mortality in SMI is needed

Years off Your Life? The Effects of Homicide on Life Expectancy by Neighborhood and Race/Ethnicity in Los Angeles County

Homicide is one of the leading causes of death in Los Angeles County and is known to be elevated in low-income urban neighborhoods and in black males. However, because homicide occurs primarily among young adults, mortality rate statistics may underrepresent its importance. We estimated the impact of homicide on life expectancy by demographic group and geographic area in Los Angeles County, 2001–2006. Life expectancy estimates were calculated using mortality records and population estimates for Los Angeles County. Cause elimination techniques were used to estimate the impact of homicide on life expectancy. Homicide was estimated to reduce life expectancy by 0.4 years for Los Angeles County residents and by 2.1 years for black males. The impact of homicide on life expectancy was higher in low-income neighborhoods. In some low-income urban neighborhoods, homicide was estimated to decrease life expectancy in black males by nearly 5 years. Homicide causes substantial reductions in life expectancy in Los Angeles County. Its impact is magnified among black males and in low-income urban areas, underscoring the need for homicide reduction in urban centers

Suicidality and depression among adult patients admitted in general medical facilities in Kenya

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Aim</p> <p>To document Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) II suicidal symptoms among patients admitted to Kenyan non-psychiatric general medical facilities</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>All consenting adults admitted within a period of 4 weeks at 10 general medical facilities in Kenya were interviewed for suicidal symptoms and depression using the BDI-II.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In all, 2,780 patients responded to item 9 (suicidal symptoms of the BDI-II). The prevalence of all BDI-II suicidal symptoms combined was 10.5%. Thoughts of 'killing oneself but have not carried them out' accounted for 9% of the suicidal symptoms. The younger age group had the highest prevalence of suicidal symptoms and the oldest age group had the least prevalence of suicidal symptoms. The more depressed the patients were on the overall BDI-II score, the higher the prevalence of suicidal symptoms.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>On average 1 out of 10 of the patients had suicidal symptoms, more so in younger than the older people and in the more depressed. These symptoms had not been clinically recognised and therefore not managed. This calls for clinical practice that routinely enquires for suicidal symptoms in general medical wards.</p

Economic factors and suicide rates: associations over time in four countries

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