RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TOPOGRAPHICAL CHANGES AND DEBRIS FLOW OCCURRENCE IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE AIZOME RIVER

令和3年7月に熱海市の逢初川源頭部で大規模盛土が崩壊し，深刻な土石流災害が発生した．逢初川源頭部付近で複数行われた地形改変に注目し，これらの地形改変が流出過程に及ぼした影響について数値解析により検討した．地形改変前と後の地形データを用いて令和3年7月豪雨時の雨水流出過程を計算し，逢初川源頭部付近の断面通過水量の比較を行った．その結果，尾根部を削って谷を埋めるなどの宅地造成に伴う地形改変の結果，北側を流れる鳴沢川流域から多量の雨水が逢初川側に流入し，盛土末端部では地形改変前の4倍に達する表流水が通過した可能性があることが明らかとなった

Learning Effect of Disaster Prevention Training Targeting New Employee in Tokushima Prefecture Government

本研究では，実際に著者の専門分野である防災まちづくりをテーマに依頼のあった徳島県新規採用職員研修の防災研修において，インストラクショナルデザイン（ID：Instructional Design）を援用して研修のプログラムを設計・実行した結果，どのような学習効果が得られたか明らかにすることを目的とする。具体的には，①『メーガーの3 つの質問』，『9 教授事象』，『4 段階評価モデル』の3 つのID を援用し，防災研修の目標，プログラムの内容，学習効果の評価方法を設計，実施した。②受講生の研修評価アンケート結果を基に，防災研修の目標の到達度や到達度に応じた学びの内容により，防災研修の学習効果を評価した。その結果，防災研修の目標である『徳島県の南海トラフ巨大地震対策を，①他人事ではなく自分事として，②県民目線・現場主義の視点に立ち，③県庁内および産官学民と協働して，進めることができる県職員になること』について，目標達成度を3 段階で評価した所，高群（70.2％）と中群（23.2％）を足して9 割を超えていた。さらに，受講生の目標達成度別の自由記述の内容を分析した結果，受講生の本防災研修の目標達成度が上がるにつれて，受講生に防災の基本である『本研修目標①：自分事』に加えて，『本研修目標②：県民目線・現場主義』および『本研修目標③：協働』の意識を向上させる学習効果があったことがわかった。The purpose of this study is to clarify what learning effects were obtained as a result of designing and executing a training program with the aid of instructional design in disaster prevention training for new employee in Tokushima Prefecture Government. As a result, the goal of the disaster prevention training was to take measures against the Nankai Trough Giant Earthquake in Tokushima Prefecture, (1) as a personal affair rather than other personnel, (2) standing from the viewpoint of citizens of the prefecture and a hands-on policy and (3) become a prefectural official who can proceed in cooperation with the government and with industry, government, academia and citizens. The goal achievement was evaluated in three stages, and it was over 90% when the high group (70.2%) and the middle group (23.2%) were added. Furthermore, it was found that as the degree of the students' achievement of this disaster prevention training increased, there was a learning effect to raise the awareness of (2) and (3) in addition to the basics of disaster prevention (1)

DISCUSSION ON DESIGNING AND ASSESSING DISASTER PREVENTION EDUCATION BASED ON ID FOCUSING ON THE LEADING EVACUEES DRILLS USING RED/BLUE PAPERPERBOARD

本研究では筆者らが行った「青赤紙を用いた率先避難訓練」の防災教育を事例に，よりよい防災教育へ改善していくための問題点と，その改善策を検討した．その結果，本事例の問題点として(1)率先避難者の役割をどのように教えるのかといった「教授方略」に注力し，「目標」や「評価」を決めるための学習者分析を十分に行わなかったこと，(2)「目標」や「評価」をあいまいなままに教育を行ったことで，学習者が理解したことと教育者が教えたいことにズレがあった可能性を見出すことができた．インストラクショナルデザイン（以下ID）を用いることでこの問題点の改善策を提示し，「目標」⇒「評価」⇒「教授方略」の順番で教育を設計することが，よりよい防災教育へ改善していくために重要であることを，防災教育の具体的事例に基づき示すことができた．Based on the example of a disaster preparedness education program implemented by the authors, leading evacuees drills using red/blue paperboard, this study examined the problems of the program and their remedial measures for improving disaster preparedness education. As a result, the following two problems were identified: 1) the focus was on the teaching strategies, such as methods for teaching the roles of leading evacuees, and learner analysis for setting the goals and the assessment criteria was not fully conducted, 2) there might have been a gap between what the instructors wanted to teach and what the learners understood due to the fact that the program was implemented without setting clear goals and assessment criteria. Based on a specific example of disaster preparedness education, it was demonstrated that in order to improve disaster preparedness education, it is important to present remedial measures for the problems of the program using instructional design (ID) and to design the education program in the order of goals, assessment criteria, and finally teaching strategies

Web-based System for Designing Game-based Evacuation Drills

A game-based evacuation drill (GBED) using the program Real-World Edutainment is effective disaster education. For the successful GBED, an evacuation scenario and digital materials are important. We are developing a web-based system to design GBEDs through community survey, digital material creation and evacuation scenario composition. This system works with a standard web browser and allows a wide range of people to participate in the GBED design process through simple operations

ツギ ノ ナンカイ ジシン ツナミ ライシュウジ ニオケル シコク エンガンイキ ノ ジンテキ ヒガイ ケイゲンカ ニ カンスル ケンキュウ

In the following Nankai Earthquake Tsunami, the characteristics of the tsunami height and its arrival time in the coastal area of the Seto Inland Sea was discussed. It found that their values could be estimated by the simple operation of Aida’s Ansei Nankai Earthquake Model(1981). Next, it proposed the evacuation model as the death toll increases as to be behind in the taking evacuation beginning time for the example of Usa , Kochi Prefecture . Moreover, based on this method, it measured the opening and shutting effect of the gates which was put to the embankment to exert on the death toll, and then it evaluated the effectivity of the protection against disasters

A comparative method for evaluating ecosystem services from the viewpoint of public works

Nature-based solutions (NbS), such as the implementation of environmental conservation and restoration as public works projects, require accurate and cost-effective assessments of the values related to the projects. The values should represent collective ecosystem services, individual services such as food provision and water purification, and other intangible services. To comprehensively assess such services, we proposed a novel method, which we call the comparative evaluation method. Our method is able to assess the value of each service category of an NbS project from a single questionnaire survey. Survey participants are asked to compare values of multiple services having anchoring prices. Our method determines the permissible economic value of environmental public works (PEP) in response to the quantity of service. The questionnaire results used for analysis are limited to those from respondents who made their PEP evaluation on the basis of their consideration of the appropriate expenditure of taxes. In addition, the method controls for the effect of the satisfaction that a person experiences from doing good deeds to reduce an overestimation of the values of services. Moreover, PEPs are not influenced by the respondent's annual income, age, sex, or educational background, and are based on personal values. Applying this new method, we surveyed residents of the watersheds of Tokyo Bay and Osaka Bay and evaluated nine ecosystem services. Overall, our new method is shown to be an effective method for evaluating the ecosystem services of NbS projects from the viewpoint of public works