The role of agrobiodiversity in strengthening the resilience of small-scale farmers: biophysical and economic trends towards 2050

In this study we analyze the capacity of agrobiodiversity to increase resilience of banana-based smallholders in Uganda as affected by disease incidence or climate change and associated price changes until 2050. We explore trade-offs and synergies by means of various indicators of economic, environmental and nutritional impact determined by selected cropping patterns. As a result of increased agrobiodiversity, in all scenarios considerable improvements could be achieved for almost all indicators, which results in higher farm resilience. Our results also indicate that climate change can increase vulnerability of smallholder farmers in Uganda with respect to their income, whereas banana disease can put pressure on nutrition and sustainability of production. Increasing revenues from cropping associated with a stronger focus on a small number of profitable crops would come with a trade-off due to increased vulnerability to yield and price fluctuations. When it comes to crop diversification, it has a significant positive impact on soil health, especially soil erosion, and nutrition. Our analysis of correlations between areas of different crops and the performance indicators reveals a further layer of trade-offs at crop level. In particular, under baseline scenario yam leads as an income-generating crop, with high vitamin A yield but with negative consequences to environment and high revenue instability

Understanding the economic impact of BXW and its management practices in East and Central Africa

Banana Xanthomonas wilt (BXW) is a widespread banana disease in East and Central Africa (ECA). It has the ability to cause up to 100% yield loss, severely compromising food security and livelihoods for banana-based farming households. There are no BXW-resistant varieties, and cultural management practices offer the only means of control. However, adoption of these practices by farmers has been lower than expected, mainly because of their high cost and labour-intensiveness. There are also other actors, both in public and private sectors, playing an important role in the disease management and facing different costs related to it. Our literature review reveals that a cost analysis of the banana value chain as a whole is missing. By this we mean consideration of not only farmers, who have to sustain the cost of management practices, but also other stakeholders involved, as national and local governments, research institutions and agricultural extensionists. In this study we identify economic actors involved in the banana value chain together with their costs related to the disease management and propose a cost analysis conceptual framework. Further, we review determinants of adoption of the BXW management practices and finally relate them to the estimates of costs of inaction (losses due to BXW spread). In this way, we present a comprehensive picture of costs of BXW spread vis-a-vis the costs of management practices and indicate possible ways to tip the balance in favour of the disease eradication. Ongoing research needs to carry out ex-post analyses on different costs sustained by the stakeholders of banana value chain, and ex ante analyses to predict future scenarios which represent possible alternatives, depending on whether and how the disease will be managed in the coming years. Those results will better inform decision-makers at national, regional, and international levels and provide support in designing strategies to cope with the BXW spread across the ECA region

Food systems transformation in Indonesia: Results on baseline and stylized scenarios from GLOBIOM

As part of an effort to inform food system transformation in Indonesia and build on analytical and modelling work by BAPPENAS, FAO and others, this report contains the model description, business as usual trajectory and stylized scenarios coming from the GLOBIOM model. The report takes a food system approach where stylized scenarios follow three main policy levers, namely the healthy diets, socio-economic sustainability of agri-food supply and environmental sustainability: 1. Healthy diets – In line with the RPJMN goal of improving the quality of Indonesian diets, this axis reflects a transition towards healthier diets in Indonesia through reducing food insecurity and increasing the consumption of products that are key to a healthy diet. 2. Socioeconomic sustainability of agri-food supply – In line with the RPJMN goal of increasing food availability, this axis reflects a transition towards increased and more sustainable agricultural production that meets the needs of a growing population by increasing local agricultural production and increasing the share of domestic production in national consumption. 3. Environmental sustainability – In line with the RPJMN goals of strengthening the environment, improving climate resilience, and promoting low carbon development, this axis reflects a transition towards environmental sustainability, achieved through policies that constrain land use and reduce food loss and waste, thereby reducing GHG emissions, reducing deforestation and preserving biodiversity. One or two policy interventions are designed along each of the axes and compared in terms of the main flagship indicators: percentage undernourished, share of food calories produced domestically (%), total value added from agriculture, forest cover and GHG emissions. The scenarios modeled are: (1) ‘POU’: A target to increase food consumption towards reducing undernourishment to 2.5% by 2030 combined with a transition towards healthier diets; (2) ‘INT’: An intensification scenario leading to increased productivity on cropland through better cultivars and an increased use of water and fertilizers; (3) ‘GHG050’: A carbon tax of 50 USD/ton on agriculture and land use emissions; (4) ‘CONS’: an extension of the moratorium policy on primary forests and peatland conversion. In addition, different combinations of the individual policy interventions are made: a target on undernourishment combined with a moratorium on primary forests (CONS_POU), a moratorium on primary forests combined with agricultural intensification (CONS_INT), a target on undernourishment combined with agricultural intensification (INT_POU), and a combined moratorium on primary forests, target on undernourishment and agricultural intensification scenario (CONS_INT_POU). Model We use the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM, Havlík et al. 2014), developed at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), to understand the effects of policy interventions on the three axes. GLOBIOM provides a national and sub-national level picture of food system performance within the agriculture and forestry sector in Indonesia, identifying and analysing synergies and trade-offs associated with policy interventions over the medium to long term, in this case 2030-2045. The model has been updated and refined using best available data and tailored to the context of Indonesia. A consistent land use-land cover map has been built using the best land cover map available, agricultural statistics and other available spatially explicit information on land use. The list of crops has been extended compared to the standard version of GLOBIOM to better represent the land use dynamics and demands for the main commodities in international markets. A comparison of the most important agricultural and land use items and indicators shows that GLOBIOM follows both the trend and absolute changes of the land use, land use dynamics, GHG emissions, production, consumption, and trade over the historical reference period of 2000-2020 well. Business as usual results GLOBIOM’s business as usual trajectory show that, due to the foreseen growth in GDP, production and value added, the percentage of undernourished decreases steadily over the time horizon, from 9% in 2020 to 5.7% in 2030 and 1.4% in 2045 under a no intervention scenario. Agricultural yields and value added measured in real terms continue to increase over the time horizon, by 13.8% in 2030 and 42% in 2045 compared to the 2020 value added. This is a lot smaller than the relative increase in real value added of 118% that GLOBIOM-Indonesia simulated over the 2000-2020 period. Regarding the flagship indicators for the environment, emissions show a decrease compared to 2020, by 17% in 2030 and by 10% in 2045. This decrease in emissions is largely due to the sharp decrease in emissions from land cover change, mostly resulting from reduced deforestation and from the reduced draining of peatlands for agricultural conversion. Primary forests decrease by 2.4% in 2030 and 3.6% in 2045 compared to the 2020. Natural land decreases by 5.8% in 2030 and 17.4% in 2045. The land from these land covers shifts to agriculture, livestock and forestry production: plantation oil palm (+6.7% in 2030 and +18% in 2045), forest plantations (+9.5% in 2030 and +25.5% in 2045), cropland (+2.4% in 2030 and +10.9% in 2045) and a small increase in grassland for livestock production (+1.1% in 2030 and +7.6% in 2045). Scenario results Based on the stylized scenarios and their comparison regarding the main flagship indicators and the three axes, the following conclusions and policy recommendations can be drawn: In the short term, to reach the goal of lower undernourishment and promoting healthier diets, it is particularly important to target and implement policy measures that directly impact consumers. Targeting consumers directly can lead to a reduction in the percentage of undernourished from 5.7% under the business as usual trajectory to 2.8% by 2030. Focusing on agricultural producers through the enhancement of yields will only lead to a reduction in the percentage undernourished to 5.3% by 2030. Intensification measures may not be effective in reducing undernourishment and promoting healthier food choices, as the increased production is partly directed towards cash crops and exports . Under the intensification scenario, production increases are concentrated in coffee and soy. Under the reduction in undernourishment scenario, production increases are observed primarily for rice, soy and sweet potatoes, crops that directly benefit consumption. Therefore, well-targeted policies towards not only reducing undernourishment but also improving diets will lead to more calorie and nutrient rich consumption patterns compared to an intensification scenario where the focus is purely on increasing agricultural production. Scenarios focused solely on the environment result in slight increases in the percentage of undernourished individuals, especially in the longer term. This is because environmental policies that limit land cover conversion or put a price on emissions from agriculture and land use activities reduce the amount of productive land available for conversion to cropland and increase production costs. Regarding the socio-economic sustainability of the agri-food system, we find that different crops will benefit from either agricultural intensification or support to consumers. Cash crops like coffee and crops used to feed livestock such as soybeans will gain in terms of value added, by respectively 59.4% and 57.4% by 2030 under an intensification scenario. On the other hand, root crops like cassava and sweet potatoes, which are healthy staple foods, will gain in value added, by respectively 25.5% and 18.4% by 2030 under a scenario with higher demand for these types of crops (POU). Under a combined scenario with both POU and intensification, both cash crops and root crops will gain in value added. At the same time, food prices go down in the INT_POU scenario, leading to cost savings for the government in case of food subsidies to meet the targeted reduction in undernourishment. Regarding environmental sustainability, a scenario focusing only on a decrease in undernourishment leads to an increase in the cropland extent and in emissions. Cropland expansion is driven by the additional demand for certain crops (+0.5mln ha compared to the base in 2030 and +0.49mln ha compared to the base by 2045). If primary forests are subject to a moratorium, other potentially biodiverse-rich land covers, like natural lands are likely to be converted more. Combining scenarios can mitigate negative emissions effects compared to a business-as-usual scenario, but may not achieve individual goals (e.g. no reduced deforestation under CONS-INT-POU). In both the short and long term, a conservation scenario is the most effective in "saving" primary forests (+1.9% or nearly 1 million hectares (0.97) by 2030 and +1.8% or 1.2 million ha by 2045) compared to a carbon tax (+0.3% or 147,000 hectares by 2030 or +1.4% or 665 thousand ha by 2045). However, a conservation scenario also leads to a reduction in natural land (-0.6% or 146,000 hectares), which is not covered by the moratorium. A conservation and intensification scenario leads to the largest gains in primary forests (+2.3% or 1.2 million hectares by 2030 and up to 2 million ha by 2045) and natural land (+1.1% or 276,000 hectares by 2030 or 786 thousand ha by 2045). When also combining these two objectives with a target on reducing undernourishment, it becomes possible to reduce emissions, particularly those caused by changes in land cover, without increasing the percentage of undernourished people. The analysis of policy interventions and its outcomes primarily focuses on the national level. However, implementing these interventions across Indonesia, being an archipelago, could lead to increased transaction costs, such as higher food distribution expenses. Currently, most of the food production occurs in Java. Initial findings from GLOBIOM suggest that targeting these food producing hotspots can yield quick wins in terms of e.g. food production and food availability. Nonetheless, regions outside of Java have the highest rates of undernourishment, indicating the need for further research to explore regional variations in meeting policy objectives

Examining linkages among multiple sustainable development outcomes: does the productive safety net program increase on-farm agrobiodiversity?

In Ethiopia, on-farm agrobiodiversity and the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) play a key role in building smallholders’ resilience. However, the impact of PSNP on on-farm agrobiodiversity is not yet well investigated. In this paper, we develop an analytical framework that links PSNP participation to on-farm agrobiodiversity. Both diverse farming systems and PSNP require labour inputs while providing income stabilization, which might result in a negative relationship between the two. Conversely, higher income from PSNP might allow farmers to increase their long-term on-farm investments, as opposed to the strategies oriented toward the highest immediate profit or calorie intake outcome. We base our empirical analysis on the World Bank’s Ethiopian Socioeconomic Survey, a panel dataset encompassing nearly 3000 respondents and a Tobit model, based on Difference-in-Difference and the Propensity-Score Matching methods. We find that Ethiopia’s PSNP has a negative impact on farm labour input, both in terms of labour intensity and duration. Furthermore, our results show that participation in the program is associated, on average, with lower on-farm crop diversity. We conclude that the PSNP participation may be crowding-out production stabilizing farming activities, such as intercropping or cover cropping, that are more labour intensive. Our findings call for embedding tools in the new phase of the PSNP (2021–2025) that could incentivise on-farm resilience-oriented investments, in particular leading to higher crop diversification

The potential impact of banana Xanthomonas wilt on food systems in Africa: modeling scenarios of policy response and disease control measures

Banana Xanthomonas wilt (BXW) is one of the most important diseases threatening banana production in Africa south of the Sahara (SSA). In this study, we examine the potential impacts of BXW on banana production, demand, and food security in SSA, if the disease spread across all banana-producing countries in the region. The analysis is based on a multidisciplinary approach that combines a mathematical model of field-level BXW spread over time with a dynamic global partial equilibrium economic model. Since BXW control relies exclusively on management, we analyze three scenarios of BXW spread that are constructed around assumptions about the level of policy response to the disease, and about how this response may affect the adoption of appropriate management practices by farmers to control BXW. Modeling results suggest that if the disease is left uncontrolled, banana production in SSA within 10 years can decrease by as much as 55%, compared to a BXW-free baseline scenario, resulting in economic losses of around 25 billion USD. At the same time, the population at risk of hunger in countries that highly depend on bananas as a staple food is projected to increase by more than 4.6%. Even a limited policy response to BXW can reduce infections and mitigate some of the production, economic, and food security consequences. BXW impacts are almost completely negated when farmers have good knowledge of the disease and fully adopt the appropriate management practices. This result highlights the need for policy frameworks which rely on sustained and coordinated efforts by public and private stakeholders, within and across SSA countries and at different geographical scales. It also aims to raise awareness and promote the adoption of such practices, while also considering local peculiarities and socioeconomic conditions