Evolution of a storm-driven cloudy boundary layer in the Arctic

The cloudy boundary layer under stormy conditions during the summertime Arctic has been studied using observation from the SHEBA experiment and large-eddy simulations (LES). On 29 July 1998, a stable Arctic cloudy boundary layer event was observed after passage of a synoptic low. The local dynamic and thermodynamic structure of the boundary layer was determined from aircraft measurement including analysis of turbulence, cloud microphysics and radiative properties. After the upper cloud layer advected over the existing cloud layer, the turbulent kinetic energy budget indicated that the cloud layer below 200 m was maintained predominantly by shear production. Observations of longwave radiation showed that cloud top cooling at the lower cloud top has been suppressed by radiative effects of the upper cloud layer. Our LES results demonstrate the importance of the combination of shear mixing near the surface and radiative cooling at the cloud top in the storm-driven cloudy boundary layer. Once the low-level cloud reaches a certain height, depending on the amount of cloud-top cooling, the two sources of TKE production begin to separate in space under continuous stormy conditions, suggesting one possible mechanism for the cloud layering. The sensitivity tests suggest that the storm-driven cloudy boundary layer is flexibly switched to the shear-driven system due to the advection of upper clouds or the buoyantly driven system due to the lack of the wind shear. A comparison is made of this storm-driven boundary layer with the buoyantly driven boundary layer previously described in the literature

Convectively Induced Secondary Circulations in Fine-Grid Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Models

Mesoscale numerical weather prediction models using fine-grid [O(1) km] meshes for weather forecasting, environmental assessment, and other applications capture aspects of larger-than-grid-mesh size, convectively induced secondary circulations (CISCs) such as cells and rolls that occur in the convective planetary boundary layer (PBL). However, 1-km grid spacing is too large for the simulation of the interaction of CISCs with smaller-scale turbulence. The existence of CISCs also violates the neglect of horizontal gradients of turbulent quantities in current PBL schemes. Both aspects—poorly resolved CISCs and a violation of the assumptions behind PBL schemes—are examples of what occurs in Wyngaard’s “terra incognita,” where horizontal grid spacing is comparable to the scale of the simulated motions. Thus, model CISCs (M-CISCs) cannot be simulated reliably. This paper describes how the superadiabatic layer in the lower convective PBL together with increased horizontal resolution allow the critical Rayleigh number to be exceeded and thus allow generation of M-CISCs like those in nature; and how the M-CISCs eventually neutralize the virtual temperature stratification, lowering the Rayleigh number and stopping their growth. Two options for removing M-CISCs while retaining their fluxes are 1) introducing nonlocal closure schemes for more effective removal of heat from the surface and 2) restricting the effective Rayleigh number to remain subcritical. It is demonstrated that CISCs are correctly handled by large-eddy simulation (LES) and thus may provide a way to improve representation of them or their effects. For some applications, it may suffice to allow M-CISCs to develop, but account for their shortcomings during interpretation

Adaptive Urban Dispersion Integrated Model

Numerical simulations represent a unique predictive tool for understanding the three-dimensional flow fields and associated concentration distributions from contaminant releases in complex urban settings (Britter and Hanna 2003). Utilization of the most accurate urban models, based on fully three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) that solve the Navier-Stokes equations with incorporated turbulence models, presents many challenges. We address two in this work; first, a fast but accurate way to incorporate the complex urban terrain, buildings, and other structures to enforce proper boundary conditions in the flow solution; second, ways to achieve a level of computational efficiency that allows the models to be run in an automated fashion such that they may be used for emergency response and event reconstruction applications. We have developed a new integrated urban dispersion modeling capability based on FEM3MP (Gresho and Chan 1998, Chan and Stevens 2000), a CFD model from Lawrence Livermore National Lab. The integrated capability incorporates fast embedded boundary mesh generation for geometrically complex problems and full three-dimensional Cartesian adaptive mesh refinement (AMR). Parallel AMR and embedded boundary gridding support are provided through the SAMRAI library (Wissink et al. 2001, Hornung and Kohn 2002). Embedded boundary mesh generation has been demonstrated to be an automatic, fast, and efficient approach for problem setup. It has been used for a variety of geometrically complex applications, including urban applications (Pullen et al. 2005). The key technology we introduce in this work is the application of AMR, which allows the application of high-resolution modeling to certain important features, such as individual buildings and high-resolution terrain (including important vegetative and land-use features). It also allows the urban scale model to be readily interfaced with coarser resolution meso or regional scale models. This talk will discuss details of the approach and present results for some example calculations performed in Manhattan in support of the DHS Urban Dispersion Program (UDP) using some of the tools developed as part of this new capability

Event Reconstruction for Atmospheric Releases Employing Urban Puff Model UDM with Stochastic Inversion Methodology

The rapid identification of contaminant plume sources and their characteristics in urban environments can greatly enhance emergency response efforts. Source identification based on downwind concentration measurements is complicated by the presence of building obstacles that can cause flow diversion and entrainment. While high-resolution computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations are available for predicting plume evolution in complex urban geometries, such simulations require large computational effort. We make use of an urban puff model, the Defence Science Technology Laboratory's (Dstl) Urban Dispersion Model (UDM), which employs empirically based puff splitting techniques. UDM enables rapid urban dispersion simulations by combining traditional Gaussian puff modeling with empirically deduced mixing and entrainment approximations. Here we demonstrate the preliminary reconstruction of an atmospheric release event using stochastic sampling algorithms and Bayesian inference together with the rapid UDM urban puff model based on point measurements of concentration. We consider source inversions for both a prototype isolated building and for observations and flow conditions taken during the Joint URBAN 2003 field campaign at Oklahoma City. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) stochastic sampling method is used to determine likely source term parameters and considers both measurement and forward model errors. It should be noted that the stochastic methodology is general and can be used for time-varying release rates and flow conditions as well as nonlinear dispersion problems. The results of inversion indicate the probability of a source being at a particular location with a particular release rate. Uncertainty in observed data, or lack of sufficient data, is inherently reflected in the shape and size of the probability distribution of source term parameters. Although developed and used independently, source inversion with both UDM and a finite-element CFD code can be complementary in determining proper emergency response to an urban release. Ideally, the urban puff model is used to approximate the source location and strength. The more accurate CFD model can then be used to refine the solution

Simulating atmosphere flow for wind energy applications with WRF-LES

Forecasts of available wind energy resources at high spatial resolution enable users to site wind turbines in optimal locations, to forecast available resources for integration into power grids, to schedule maintenance on wind energy facilities, and to define design criteria for next-generation turbines. This array of research needs implies that an appropriate forecasting tool must be able to account for mesoscale processes like frontal passages, surface-atmosphere interactions inducing local-scale circulations, and the microscale effects of atmospheric stability such as breaking Kelvin-Helmholtz billows. This range of scales and processes demands a mesoscale model with large-eddy simulation (LES) capabilities which can also account for varying atmospheric stability. Numerical weather prediction models, such as the Weather and Research Forecasting model (WRF), excel at predicting synoptic and mesoscale phenomena. With grid spacings of less than 1 km (as is often required for wind energy applications), however, the limits of WRF's subfilter scale (SFS) turbulence parameterizations are exposed, and fundamental problems arise, associated with modeling the scales of motion between those which LES can represent and those for which large-scale PBL parameterizations apply. To address these issues, we have implemented significant modifications to the ARW core of the Weather Research and Forecasting model, including the Nonlinear Backscatter model with Anisotropy (NBA) SFS model following Kosovic (1997) and an explicit filtering and reconstruction technique to compute the Resolvable Subfilter-Scale (RSFS) stresses (following Chow et al, 2005).We are also modifying WRF's terrain-following coordinate system by implementing an immersed boundary method (IBM) approach to account for the effects of complex terrain. Companion papers presenting idealized simulations with NBA-RSFS-WRF (Mirocha et al.) and IBM-WRF (K. A. Lundquist et al.) are also presented. Observations of flow through the Altamont Pass (Northern California) wind farm are available for validation of the WRF modeling tool for wind energy applications. In this presentation, we use these data to evaluate simulations using the NBA-RSFS-WRF tool in multiple configurations. We vary nesting capabilities, multiple levels of RSFS reconstruction, SFS turbulence models (the new NBA turbulence model versus existing WRF SFS turbulence models) to illustrate the capabilities of the modeling tool and to prioritize recommendations for operational uses. Nested simulations which capture both significant mesoscale processes as well as local-scale stable boundary layer effects are required to effectively predict available wind resources at turbine height

Sequential Monte-Carlo Framework for Dynamic Data-Driven Event Reconstruction for Atmospheric Release

The release of hazardous materials into the atmosphere can have a tremendous impact on dense populations. We propose an atmospheric event reconstruction framework that couples observed data and predictive computer-intensive dispersion models via Bayesian methodology. Due to the complexity of the model framework, a sampling-based approach is taken for posterior inference that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) strategies