The spatial distribution at the study site.

<p>The positions of <i>S</i>. <i>gemmifer</i> are indicated by black dots. (A), (B) and (C) illustrate the spatial patterns on Dates I, II and IV, respectively. A pile of clay was present in (A), although its precise shape was not recorded. Dates I–IV are defined in the text.</p

Relationships between the wash-out rates and precipitation during the increasing and decreasing periods.

<p>(A) Single-day rains (SD) in the increasing period (between Dates I and II). (B) SD in the decreasing period (after Date II). (C) The continuous-days rains (CDs) during the increasing period. (D) CDs during the decreasing period. SD denotes that the rain stopped in a single day, and CDs indicates that the rain continued over multiple days. Dates I–IV are defined in the text.</p

Population dynamics of <i>S</i>. <i>gemmifer</i>.

<p>The total population sizes of individuals (solid circles) and settled gemmae since February 2005 (open circles) are plotted from July 2004 to June 2012. Dates I–IV indicate the dates of culm measurements (Date I: 18 May 2005; Date II: 19 August 2009; Date III: 21 June 2011; and Date IV: 3 February 2012). Prior to Date I, the population size sharply decreased. The population size gradually increased during the period between Dates I–II and then decreased after Date II.</p

Temporal changes with respect to individual size between Dates I–II.

<p>Temporal changes with respect to individual size between Dates I–II.</p

Wash-out rates at different positions in the study site during the increasing and decreasing periods.

<p>Wash-out rates at different positions in the study site during the increasing and decreasing periods.</p

Contingency table of the number of washed-out and surviving individuals during the increasing and decreasing periods.

<p>Contingency table of the number of washed-out and surviving individuals during the increasing and decreasing periods.</p

The observed and expected numbers of individuals on each measurement date.

<p>The observed and expected numbers of individuals on each measurement date.</p

Result of the Bayesian inference.

<p>The likelihood function is depicted for the parameter <i>y</i>. The solid curve represents the marginal posterior distribution. We used the uniform distribution as a prior probability. The likelihood function was calculated from the data in <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0157773#pone.0157773.t003" target="_blank">Table 3</a>.</p

Contingency table of the number of newly settled gemmae at different positions within the study site during periods I–II and II–IV.

<p>Contingency table of the number of newly settled gemmae at different positions within the study site during periods I–II and II–IV.</p

Temporal changes in the population size, total number of culms, and mean number of culms per individual.

<p>Temporal changes in the population size, total number of culms, and mean number of culms per individual.</p