The annual recurrence risk model for tailored surveillance strategy in patients with cervical cancer

Purpose: Current guidelines for surveillance strategy in cervical cancer are rigid, recommending the same strategy for all survivors. The aim of this study was to develop a robust model allowing for individualised surveillance based on a patient's risk profile. Methods: Data of 4343 early-stage patients with cervical cancer treated between 2007 and 2016 were obtained from the international SCCAN (Surveillance in Cervical Cancer) consortium. The Cox proportional hazards model predicting disease-free survival (DFS) was developed and internally validated. The risk score, derived from regression coefficients of the model, stratified the cohort into significantly distinctive risk groups. On its basis, the annual recurrence risk model (ARRM) was calculated. Results: Five variables were included in the prognostic model: maximal pathologic tumour diameter; tumour histotype; grade; number of positive pelvic lymph nodes; and lymphovascular space invasion. Five risk groups significantly differing in prognosis were identified with a five-year DFS of 97.5%, 94.7%, 85.2% and 63.3% in increasing risk groups, whereas a two-year DFS in the highest risk group equalled 15.4%. Based on the ARRM, the annual recurrence risk in the lowest risk group was below 1% since the beginning of follow-up and declined below 1% at years three, four and >5 in the medium-risk groups. In the whole cohort, 26% of recurrences appeared at the first year of the follow-up, 48% by year two and 78% by year five. Conclusion: The ARRM represents a potent tool for tailoring the surveillance strategy in early-stage patients with cervical cancer based on the patient's risk status and respective annual recurrence risk. It can easily be used in routine clinical settings internationally

Association of Hospital Surgical Volume With Survival in Early-Stage Cervical Cancer Treated With Radical Hysterectomy

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association of number of radical hysterectomies performed per year in each center with disease-free survival and overall survival. METHODS: We conducted an international, multicenter, retrospective study of patients previously included in the Surveillance in Cervical Cancer collaborative studies. Individuals with International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) 2009 stage IB1-IIA1 cervical cancer who underwent radical hysterectomy and had negative lymph nodes at final histology were included. Patients were treated at referral centers for gynecologic oncology according to updated national and international guidelines. Optimal cutoffs for surgical volume were identified using an unadjusted Cox proportional hazard model, with disease-free survival as the outcome and defined as the value that minimizes the P-value of the split in groups in terms of disease-free survival. Propensity score matching was used to create statistically similar cohorts at baseline. RESULTS: A total of 2,157 patients were initially included. The two most significant cutoffs for surgical volume were identified at seven and 17 surgical procedures, dividing the entire cohort into low-volume, middle-volume, and high-volume centers. After propensity score matching, 1,238 patients were analyzed - 619 (50.0%) in the high-volume group, 523 (42.2%) in the middle-volume group, and 96 (7.8%) in the low-volume group. Patients who underwent surgery in higher-volume institutions had progressively better 5-year disease-free survival than those who underwent surgery in lower-volume centers (92.3% vs 88.9% vs 83.8%, P=.029). No difference was noted in 5-year overall survival (95.9% vs 97.2% vs 95.2%, P=.70). Cox multivariable regression analysis showed that FIGO stage greater than IB1, presence of lymphovascular space invasion, grade greater than 1, tumor diameter greater than 20 mm, minimally invasive surgical approach, nonsquamous cell carcinoma histology, and lower-volume centers represented independent risk factors for recurrence. CONCLUSION: Surgical volume of centers represented an independent prognostic factor affecting disease-free survival. Increasing number of radical hysterectomies performed in each center every year was associated with improved disease-free survival

Post-recurrence survival in patients with cervical cancer.

BACKGROUND: Up to 26% of patients with early-stage cervical cancer experience relapse after primary surgery. However, little is known about which factors influence prognosis following disease recurrence. Therefore, our aims were to determine post-recurrence disease-specific survival (PR-DSS) and to identify respective prognostic factors for PR-DSS. METHODS: Data from 528 patients with early-stage cervical cancer who relapsed after primary surgery performed between 2007 and 2016 were obtained from the SCANN study (Surveillance in Cervical CANcer). Factors related to the primary disease and recurrence were combined in a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model to predict PR-DSS. RESULTS: The 5-year PR-DSS was 39.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] 22.7%-44.5%), median disease-free interval between primary surgery and recurrence (DFI1) was 1.5 years, and median survival after recurrence was 2.5 years. Six significant variables were identified in the multivariable analysis and were used to construct the prognostic model. Two were related to primary treatment (largest tumour size and lymphovascular space invasion) and four to recurrence (DFI1, age at recurrence, presence of symptoms, and recurrence type). The C-statistic after 10-fold cross-validation of prognostic model reached 0.701 (95% CI 0.675-0.727). Three risk-groups with significantly differing prognoses were identified, with 5-year PR-DSS rates of 81.8%, 44.6%, and 12.7%. CONCLUSIONS: We developed the robust model of PR-DSS to stratify patients with relapsed cervical cancer according to risk profiles using six routinely recorded prognostic markers. The model can be utilised in clinical practice to aid decision-making on the strategy of recurrence management, and to better inform the patients