PROFIT CONSISTENCY AND MANAGEMENT CHARACTERISTICS FOR SUCCESSFUL NORTH DAKOTA FARMS, 1995-2000

Farm profitability varies widely among producers, but the reasons for those differences are not clear as it is generally not known if the same farms are in the higher profit categories every year. Characteristics of the individual producer also vary substantially. Farm size, crop yields, cost of production, debt structure, and land ownership are some of the traits which differ among farms. This study analyzed farm finance data from the North Dakota Farm and Ranch Business Management Program over the years 1996-2000 to determine if the characteristics of profitable farms were different from the characteristics of farms which were not as profitable. A secondary objective was to evaluate if farms remained in similar profit quartiles every year.North Dakota Farm and Ranch Business Management Program, farm characteristics, return on assets, costs, land ownership, debt structure, Farm Management,

2010 North Dakota Agricultural Outlook: Representative Farms, 2010-2019

Net farm income for most representative farms in 2019 is projected to be lower than in 2009. Low-profit farms, which comprise 20% of the farms in the study, may not have financial resiliency to survive without off-farm income. Commodity prices are expected to increase slowly from current levels. Commodity yields are projected to increase at historical trend-line rates and production expenses are expected to return to normal growth rates. Debt-to-asset ratios for all farms except for the low profit farm will decrease slightly throughout the forecast period. Debt-to-asset ratios for the low-profit farms are expected to increase to about 0.70.net farm income, debt-to-asset ratios, cropland prices, land rental rates, farm operating expenses, capitalization rate, risk., Agribusiness,

2004 NORTH DAKOTA AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK: REPRESENTATIVE FARMS, 2004-2013

Net farm income for all representative farms in 2013 will be lower than in 2004. Low-profit farms, which comprise 25% of the farms in the study, may not have financial resiliency to survive without off-farm income. Costs are projected to increase faster than yields, which will pressure net farm income downward. Cropland prices and cash rental rates are projected to increase slightly in all regions. Debt-to-asset ratios for most farms will increase slightly throughout the forecast period. Debt-to-asset ratios for the low-profit and small-size farms are higher than those for large and high-profit farms.net farm income, debt-to-asset ratios, cropland prices, land rental rates, farm operating expenses, capitalization rate, Farm Management,

2002 NORTH DAKOTA AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK: REPRESENTATIVE FARMS, 2002-2011

Net farm income for most representative farms in 2011 will be lower than in 2002. Low profit farms, which consist of 25% of the farms in the study, may not have financial resiliency to survive. The new farm bill will provide higher net farm income than a continuation of the FAIR Act. Cropland prices and cash rental rates are projected to increase slightly in all regions. Debt-to-asset ratios for most farms will increase slightly throughout the forecast period. Debt-to-asset ratios for the low-profit and small-size farms are higher than those for large and high-profit farms.net farm income, debt-to-asset ratios, cropland prices, land rental rates, farm operating expenses, capitalization rate, Farm Management,

2009 North Dakota Agricultural Outlook: Representative Farms, 2009-2018

Net farm income for all representative farms in 2018 is projected to be lower than in 2008. Low-profit farms, which comprise 20% of the farms in the study, may not have financial resiliency to survive without off-farm income. Commodity prices are expected to fall from current levels however the final level is unknown. Commodity yields are projected to increase at historical trend-line rates and production expenses are expected to return to normal growth rates after 2009. Debt-to-asset ratios for all farms except for the low profit farm will decrease slightly throughout the forecast period. Debt-to-asset ratios for the low-profit farms are expected to increase to about 0.50.net farm income, debt-to-asset ratios, cropland prices, land rental rates, farm operating expenses, capitalization rate, risk iv, Agricultural Finance, Farm Management, Financial Economics, Land Economics/Use,

AN ANALYSIS OF 1999 GROSS RETURNS FOR SMALL GRAINS IN NORTH DAKOTA

North Dakota gross returns from HRS wheat, durum wheat, and barley declined in 1999, relative to the expected gross returns, due to adverse weather conditions and low prices. The total gross return reductions in 1999 was estimated to be $361 million, which was divided into$51 million from weather and disease and $329 million from lower-than-average prices. Gross return reductions were largest in Region 1 (Northwest), followed by Regions 3 (Northeast) and 6 (East Central). HRS wheat accounted for the largest income loss, followed by durum and barley. However, total net farm income increased in 1999 relative to 1998, because of government payments and crop insurance.net farm income, crop losses, weather conditions, Agricultural Finance,

2007 North Dakota Agricultural Outlook: Representative Farms, 2007-2016

Net farm income for nearly all representative farms in 2016 is projected to be higher than in 2006. Low-profit farms, which comprise 20% of the farms in the study, may not have financial resiliency to survive without off-farm income. Commodity prices and yields are projected to increase slightly faster than costs, which will increase net farm income. Cropland prices and cash rental rates are projected to increase slightly in all regions. Debt-to-asset ratios for all farms will decrease slightly throughout the forecast period. Debt-to-asset ratios for the low-profit farms are expected to remain near the 0.50 level.Net farm income, Debt-to-asset ratios, Cropland prices, Land rental rates, Farm operating expenses, Capitalization rate, Risk, Agribusiness, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use,

2009 North Dakota Agricultural Outlook: Representative Farms, 2009-2018

Net farm income for all representative farms in 2018 is projected to be lower than in 2008. Low-profit farms, which comprise 20% of the farms in the study, may not have financial resiliency to survive without off-farm income. Commodity prices are expected to fall from current levels however the final level is unknown. Commodity yields are projected to increase at historical trend-line rates and production expenses are expected to return to normal growth rates after 2009. Debt-to-asset ratios for all farms except for the low profit farm will decrease slightly throughout the forecast period. Debt-to-asset ratios for the low-profit farms are expected to increase to about 0.50.net farm income, debt-to-asset ratios, cropland prices, land rental rates, farm operating expenses, capitalization rate, risk, Agribusiness,

Grain Shipments on the Mississippi River System: A Long-Term Projection

The costs of delays for shipping commodities on the Mississippi River are important and adversely impact growth in shipments. Lock and dam expansion requires substantial capital investment and an extended time period to complete. This study analyzes delay costs and the competitive position of grain shipments on the Mississippi River system. A spatial optimization model of the world grain trade was developed. Results indicated that without expansion in barge capacity, delay costs in 2020 would increase on each reach, with some up to $1.08/mt. Expansion results in reduced delay costs. Barge demand is also impacted by rail capacity. Finally, expanding the locks would result in a re-allocation of shipments among modes, reaches, and ports, notwithstanding minor adjustments in production.Agribusiness, International Relations/Trade,

FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS AFFECTING WORLD GRAIN TRADE IN THE NEXT TWO DECADES

Replaced with corrected version of paper 04/04/08.International Relations/Trade,