Explainable AI-based identification of contributing factors to the mood state change in children and adolescents with pre-existing psychiatric disorders in the context of COVID-19-related lockdowns in Greece

The COVID-19 pandemic and its accompanying restrictions have significantly impacted people’s lives globally. There is an increasing interest in examining the influence of this unprecedented situation on our mental well-being, with less attention towards the impact of the elongation of COVID-19-related measures on youth with a pre-existing psychiatric/developmental disorder. The majority of studies focus on individuals, such as students, adults, and youths, among others, with little attention being given to the elongation of COVID-19-related measures and their impact on a special group of individuals, such as children and adolescents with diagnosed developmental and psychiatric disorders. In addition, most of these studies adopt statistical methodologies to identify pair-wise relationships among factors, an approach that limits the ability to understand and interpret the impact of various factors. In response, this study aims to adopt an explainable machine learning approach to identify factors that explain the deterioration or amelioration of mood state in a youth clinical sample. The purpose of this study is to identify and interpret the impact of the greatest contributing features of mood state changes on the prediction output via an explainable machine learning pipeline. Among all the machine learning classifiers, the Random Forest model achieved the highest effectiveness, with 76% best AUC-ROC Score and 13 features. The explainability analysis showed that stress or positive changes derived from the imposing restrictions and COVID-19 pandemic are the top two factors that could affect mood state

Explainable AI-based identification of contributing factors to the mood state change of children and adolescents with pre-existing psychiatric disorders in the context of COVID-19 related lockdowns in Greece

The COVID-19 pandemic and accompanying restrictions have significantly impacted lives globally. There is an increasing interest in examining the influence of this unprecedented situation on our mental well-being, with less attention towards the impact of elongation of COVID-19 related measures on youth with a pre-existing psychiatric/developmental disorder. The majority of studies are focusing on individuals, such as students, adults, youths, among others, with little attention to be given to the elongation of COVID-19 related measures and their impact to a special group of individuals, such as children and adolescents with diagnosed developmental and psychiatric disorders. In addition, most of these studies adopt statistical methodologies to identify pair-wise relationships among factors, an approach that limits the ability to understand and interpret the impact of various factors. In response, this study aims to adopt an explainable machine learning approach to identify factors that explain the deterioration or amelioration of mood state in youth clinical sample. The purpose of this study is to identify and interpret the impact of the most contributing features of mood states change to the prediction output, via an explainable machine learning pipeline. Among all the machine learning classifiers, Random Forest model achieved the highest accuracy, with 76% Best AUC-ROC Score and 13 features. Explainability analysis showed that stress or positive changes derived from the imposing restrictions and COVID-19 pandemic are the top two factors that could affect mood state

Correction: Ntakolia et al. An Explainable Machine Learning Approach for COVID-19’s Impact on Mood States of Children and Adolescents during the First Lockdown in Greece. <i>Healthcare</i> 2022, <i>10</i>, 149

Argyris Stringaris was initially included as an author in the original publication [...

An Explainable Machine Learning Approach for COVID-19’s Impact on Mood States of Children and Adolescents during the First Lockdown in Greece

The global spread of COVID-19 led the World Health Organization to declare a pandemic on 11 March 2020. To decelerate this spread, countries have taken strict measures that have affected the lifestyles and economies. Various studies have focused on the identification of COVID-19’s impact on the mental health of children and adolescents via traditional statistical approaches. However, a machine learning methodology must be developed to explain the main factors that contribute to the changes in the mood state of children and adolescents during the first lockdown. Therefore, in this study an explainable machine learning pipeline is presented focusing on children and adolescents in Greece, where a strict lockdown was imposed. The target group consists of children and adolescents, recruited from children and adolescent mental health services, who present mental health problems diagnosed before the pandemic. The proposed methodology imposes: (i) data collection via questionnaires; (ii) a clustering process to identify the groups of subjects with amelioration, deterioration and stability to their mood state; (iii) a feature selection process to identify the most informative features that contribute to mood state prediction; (iv) a decision-making process based on an experimental evaluation among classifiers; (v) calibration of the best-performing model; and (vi) a post hoc interpretation of the features’ impact on the best-performing model. The results showed that a blend of heterogeneous features from almost all feature categories is necessary to increase our understanding regarding the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the mood state of children and adolescents