The 'Yukos affair', its motives and implications. OSW Study 25/2006

When interpreting the "Yukos affair", it is hard to focus on any single particular motive or explanation that would easily rationalise the government's actions against the company. The "Yukos affair" is a multi-layered process with a number of different reasons for its cause. When one scrutinises the events around the company, the impression may be obtained that the Kremlin seemed at first not to have had any ultimate strategy; the authorities' position evolved as time went by. At first, the conflict was mainly of a political nature; economic factors did not arise until later, when the oil sector was undergoing changes in ownership

Reform #1. Why Ukraine has to reform its gas sector. OSW COMMENTARY NUMBER 181/01.09.2015

In April 2015, the Ukrainian parliament passed a long-awaited law on the gas sector which paves the way for the extremely difficult process of reforming and de-monopolising the Ukrainian gas sector. The law will come into force on 1 October 2015 and involves the break-up of the state-owned company Naftogaz, the current monopolist, and the gradual creation of a competitive gas market in line with the so-called Third Energy Package. At the same time, a threefold increase in the price of gas paid by individual customers and the public sector was introduced. The price had been subsidised for years and no previous government had ever decided to raise it

Russia's best ally: The situation of the Russian oil sector and forecast for its future. OSW Study 39/2012

Oil is a strategic raw material for Russia and one of fundamental significance for the functioning of the state and its future. Taxes on oil production and exports are the most important source of state budget revenues which guarantee Russia maintains its political and economic stability. Russia is building its international position on the basis of its vast raw material and energy potential. While a great number of various publications have been devoted to Russian gas and Gazprom, surprisingly little research has been done into the present condition and possible future developments of the Russian oil sector, despite the fact that oil has and will have a much greater impact than gas on the functioning and the future of Russia. The main objective of this text is to describe the present situation of the Russian oil sector, its problems and the challenges it is posing, as well as the government’s policy towards this key branch of the Russian economy. This will be an introduction to an attempt to answer to the questions about the possible future production and the export levels of Russian oil, also broken down into the European and Asian directions

Temporary stabilisation: Russia-Ukraine gas transit deal. OSW Commentary NUMBER 317 31.12.2019

A five-year contract concerning Russian gas transit via Ukraine was signed after four days of negotiations on 30 December 2019. The previous contract expired on 1 January 2020. The EU-brokered talks between Moscow and Kyiv preceding the deal lasted many months and ended in the signing of a political protocol on 20 December which defined the terms of a package agreement. Gazprom has been obliged under the new transit contract to transport 65 bcm of gas in the first year and 40 bcm in the next years based on the ship-or-pay formula. Four other documents were also signed: (1) an agreement between Naftogaz and Gazprom waiving counterclaims linked to the gas contracts of 2009; (2) an interconnection agreement between Gazprom and a company named Operator of the Gas Transmission System of Ukraine (OGTSU); (3) a settlement between Gazprom and the Ministry of Justice of Ukraine; (4) a transport agreement between Naftogaz and OGTSU. The Russian company had to pay US$2.92 billion in damages under the Stockholm Arbitration Court’s ruling before the documents could be signed; it did this on 27 December

The Failure of Integration: The CIS and other international organisations in the post-Soviet era, 1991-2006. OSW Study 26/2007

Institutional integration processes in the post-Soviet area have ended in failure. It proved impossible to transform the Commonwealth of Independent States into an instrument of real co-operation, even though Russia, which was the most interested in integrating the post-Soviet space, made repeated efforts to this end. The CIS never managed to accomplish its declared objectives and, from this point of view, it does not exist as an integration organisation and de facto never did

Gas revolution? Prospects for increased gas production in Ukraine. OSW Commentary NUMBER 287 | 21.09.2018

For a number of months now the Ukrainian gas production sector has been undergoing a major overhaul to improve the conditions in which it operates, with a view to significantly increasing production. The most important reforms include lowering tax rates and deregulation. These changes are a result of the government’s gas sector development plan for Ukraine, approved in 2016. Under this programme, the amount of gas extracted is to increase from the current 20 bcm to 27 bcm by as soon as 2020. Combined with greater energy efficiency, this would enable Ukraine to become self-sufficient in terms of its gas supply, and even to export gas in subsequent years. Because Ukraine has traditionally been dependent upon imports, and due to the political importance of gas-related issues, this course of events would be strategically important and have implications for energy relations in the entire region. Government forecasts showing an increase in gas extraction in such a short time may not be very realistic, but it does seem likely that in the next few years production could reach a level rendering Ukraine independent of imports. Ukraine has large gas reserves of hitherto untapped potential (the third largest in Europe). Meanwhile, this development can only occur if reforms within the mining sector, a reduction in corruption, an influx of foreign investment, and political stability are all in place

Dark clouds over the Ukrainian gas market reform. OSW Commentary NUMBER 251 | 04.10.2017

In September, three out of five members of the supervisory board of Naftogaz, Ukraine’s largest gas company, announced their resignation and accused the government of stepping up political interference in the company’s activity and blocking measures aimed at reforming the company. This represents yet another instance of the fight for control over Naftogaz and its profit-making subsidiaries, Ukrgazvydobuvannya (which extracts over 70% of Ukraine’s gas) and Ukrtransgaz (the transit pipeline and gas storage facilities operator), which has been gaining momentum in recent months. On one side of the dispute lies what is broadly understood as the ruling camp (the surrounding of the president and the prime minister), while the other side is the pro-reform management of Naftogaz, headed by Andriy Kobolev and backed by Western institutions

Opposites put together: Belarus's politics of memory. OSW REPORT 2020-10-07.

The outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2014 became a turning point in Belarus’s historical narrative and forced the regime to emphasise Belarusian distinctiveness from Russia more than before. The activation of the politics of memory, which had previously been conducted in a very conservative manner, became one of the key tools to accomplish this task. In order to strengthen the foundations of an independent Belarus, the government began to highlight the elements of the past that point towards an independent path for national development, and which at the same time allow for Russian dominance to be weakened. Changes have been manifested by reaching beyond the framework of the Soviet tradition to a greater extent and more frequent references to events that had previously been ignored or distorted. The government resorted to the historical narrative of the opposition and independent historians, which it had formerly opposed, yet this shift was carried out very cautiously. The process of shaping the politics of memory is not yet complete and is likely to evolve further in the coming years. Both the direction and the pace of change will depend on the nature of the political regime and its evolution

Keystone of the system. Old and new oligarchs in Ukraine. OSW Point of View 59 2016-08-18

More than two years after the Maidan revolution, it is fully justified to say that the oligarchic system remains a key mechanism in Ukraine’s political and economic life. While it is true that the influence of the formerly most powerful oligarchic groups has eroded during this period, no such group except for the Family, i.e. the oligarchic circle centred around former President Yanukovych, has been eliminated

The never-ending collapse. The state of the Ukrainian oil sector. OSW Report, April 2017

The oil industry does not play a major role in the Ukrainian energy sector and has smaller economic and political significance than the gas, coal and nuclear sectors. The issues linked to the Ukrainian fuel sector are rarely given publicity in the mass media. Meanwhile, a comprehensive analysis reveals that there has been a painful and durable collapse in this strategic branch of the economy. What once was a powerful Ukrainian refining sector has been plunged into deep crisis for years. Only one out of the six existing refineries is currently in operation, using only a small section of its production capacity. For years all the refining companies have suffered from underinvestment, have not been modernised and have been unable to produce fuels in the quantities and at the quality required by the market. Another problem that has remained unresolved for years is the supply of crude oil to be processed. As a result, Ukrainian refineries are the most outdated in Europe, and the oil processing output in Ukraine has reached a record-low level of around 2.5 million tonnes annually. At the same time, the market share of imported fuels over the past few years has reached 80–85% of total consumption. A significant part of the imports originates from Russia. It is difficult to expect that the situation in the Ukrainian fuel sector will improve to a significant degree in the coming years. Its condition is also a good case study laying bare the numerous weaknesses of the Ukrainian state