The water footprint of staple crop trade under climate and policy scenarios

Trade in staple crop commodities has become increasingly important in the global food system, with ramifications for both food security and water resources sustainability. It is thus essential to understand how the water footprint (WF) of staple crop trade may change in the future. To this end, we project international staple crop trade and its WF under climate and policy scenarios for the year 2030. We use the H08 global hydrologic model to determine the impact of climatic changes to staple crop yields and evapotranspiration. Using the yield changes projected with the H08 model, we estimate the bilateral trade of staple crops using the Global Trade Analysis Project model. We combine these projections to obtain the total and blue WF of agricultural trade and global water savings (GWS) across scenarios. This approach enables us to determine the direct impact of climate change and trade liberalization—together and in isolation—on the WF of staple crop trade. Importantly, we show that trade liberalization leads to greater WF, making it a potentially important adaptation measure to a changing climate, although future work is needed to distinguish high resolution crop water use, water stress, and commodity transfers.Keywords: agricultural trade, climate change, virtual water, water footprint, trade policy, global water savings, adaptatio

Multisector Dynamics: Advancing the Science of Complex Adaptive Human-Earth Systems

The field of MultiSector Dynamics (MSD) explores the dynamics and co-evolutionary pathways of human and Earth systems with a focus on critical goods, services, and amenities delivered to people through interdependent sectors. This commentary lays out core definitions and concepts, identifies MSD science questions in the context of the current state of knowledge, and describes ongoing activities to expand capacities for open science, leverage revolutions in data and computing, and grow and diversify the MSD workforce. Central to our vision is the ambition of advancing the next generation of complex adaptive human-Earth systems science to better address interconnected risks, increase resilience, and improve sustainability. This will require convergent research and the integration of ideas and methods from multiple disciplines. Understanding the tradeoffs, synergies, and complexities that exist in coupled human-Earth systems is particularly important in the context of energy transitions and increased future shocks

Global virtual water trade and the hydrological cycle: patterns, drivers, and socio-environmental impacts

The increasing global demand for farmland products is placing unprecedented pressure on the global agricultural system and its water resources. Many regions of the world, that are affected by a chronic water scarcity relative to their population, strongly depend on the import of agricultural commodities and associated embodied (or virtual) water. The globalization of water through virtual water trade (VWT) is leading to a displacement of water use and a disconnection between human populations and the water resources they rely on. Despite the recognized importance of these phenomena in reshaping the patterns of water dependence through teleconnections between consumers and producers, their effect on global and regional water resources has just started to be quantified. This review investigates the global spatiotemporal dynamics, drivers, and impacts of VWT through an integrated analysis of surface water, groundwater, and root-zone soil moisture consumption for agricultural production; it evaluates how virtual water flows compare to the major 'physical water fluxes' in the Earth System; and provides a new reconceptualization of the hydrologic cycle to account also for the role of water redistribution by the hidden 'virtual water cycle'

Water for biodiversity and food: Neutral model, network analysis, and predictions under change

Global freshwater resources are facing increasing pressures from population growth, increased economic prosperity, and climate change. Terrestrial plant systems that rely on freshwater resources will be impacted by changes in their availability. Forests and agriculture are two globally important plant systems that are tightly coupled with the availability of freshwater. In this dissertation, I examine links between hydrology and tree diversity, as well as the relationship between water, food, and trade. The first theme of my dissertation explores the intersection between ecology and hydrology. In particular, I focus on links between species diversity and freshwater resources. First, I explore the relationship between freshwater resources and tree diversity using a neutral model. I then present a synthesis of the key hydrologic drivers of biological diversity. My work on hydrology and biodiversity is presented in Chapters 2-3. The second theme of my dissertation investigates the intersection between economics and hydrology. Specifically, I explore how water and food systems are linked through international trade, in a `global virtual water trade'. First, I quantify the structure of global virtual water trade using a network perspective. Next, I examine the distinguishing characteristics of virtual water trade by water source. Finally, I project global virtual water trade under climate change. My work on virtual water trade is presented in Chapters 4-6. The unifying theme of my dissertation is to better understand these complex systems in order to predict how they may change in the future. I explore how projected changes in rainfall patterns may impact tree diversity in Chapter 2. I quantify projected changes in virtual water trade in Chapter 6

2017 Food flow network statistics for perishable SCTG 5 and SCTG 7

Logistics in the public interest is an emerging field of study, accelerated by supply chain disruptions as a result of COVID19 and is of increasing interest as climate change destabilizes natural systems and coupled human systems. Logistics involves understanding the structure of food systems networks and how the market may be structured to ensure equitable market and food access. The refrigerated food supply chain is an energy-intensive, nutritious and high-value part of the food system, making it particularly important to consider. Improved food transport and distribution are identified as high leverage strategies for both mitigation and adaptation during disruptive events, such as climate change. Understanding the network structures of these specific food movements highlights unique transportation challenges for nutritious and perishable products. These network data are based on data from the 2017 Department of Commerce Commodity Flow Survey and Freight Analysis Framework. Empirical data from downscaling is available at https://databank.illinois.edu/datasets/IDB-8455093.USDA Agricultural Marketing Service Cooperative Agreement Number 20-TMXXX-WI-0012 USDA NIFA AFRI grant # 2020-68006-33037 State of Wisconsi