The Impact of Changes in External and Internal Factors on Financial Performance and Stock Returns of Coal Companies

This study aimed to investigate the impact of external and internal factors on financial performance and stock return of coal companies listed in the Indonesia stock exchange. The simultaneous equations model was constructed and estimated using the 2SLS (Two-Stage Least Squares) method. The annual data panel of seven coal mining companies from 2012 up to 2017 were utilized. The results of the model validation showed that 76.92% of the variables have U-Theil values below 0.5 and 23.1%, the values are above 0.5, which means that the predictive values of endogenous variables were good enough for simulation models. Based on the modeling and simulation results, we concluded that coal prices, the rupiah exchange rate, China's GDP were external factors that influence the amount of coal export sales. The exchange rate of the dollar against the rupiah was an external factor that has a dominant impact on the value of MVA and the stock returns. Coal price was external factors that have a dominant impact on financial performance (EBIT, PAT, and EVA). Reduction of revenue costs, operational costs, and general administration was an internal factor that could be carried out to reduce the impact on financial performance in case of changes in external factors, but this did not affect the stock return and MVA.Keywords: Coal, EBIT, EVA, MVA, ReturnAbstrak: Penelitian ini bertujuan mengetahui dampak perubahan faktor eksternal dan internal terhadap kinerja keuangan dan return saham perusahaan batubara yang terdaftar di bursa efek Indonesia. Model persamaan simultan dibangun dan diestimasi menggunakan metode 2SLS (Two Stage Least Squares). Data panel tujuh perusahaan pertambangan batubara tahun 2012–2017 digunakan pada penelitian ini. Hasil validasi model yang dibangun menunjukkan bahwa 76,92% dari variabel mempunyai nilai U-Theil dibawah 0,5 dan 23,1% nilainya diatas 0,5, yang berarti bahwa nilai prediksi variabel endogen cukup baik digunakan untuk simulasi model. Berdasarkan pemodelan dan hasil simulasi dapat disimpulkan bahwa harga batubara, nilai tukar rupiah, GDP Tiongkok merupakan faktor-faktor eksternal yang mempengaruhi jumlah penjualan batubara ekspor. Nilai tukar dollar terhadap rupiah merupakan faktor eksternal yang berdampak dominan terhadap nilai MVA dan nilai return saham. Harga batubara merupakan faktor eksternal yang berdampak dominan terhadap kinerja keuangan (EBIT,PAT dan EVA). Pengurangan biaya pendapatan, biaya operasional dan administrasi umum merupakan satu-satunya faktor internal yang bisa dilakukan untuk mengurangi dampak terhadap kinerja keuangan jika terjadi perubahan faktor eksternal, namun hal itu tidak berdampak terhadap return saham dan MVA. Kata kunci: Batubara, EBIT, EVA,MVA, Retur

Dampak eksternal dan internal faktor terhadap kinerja keuangan dan return perusahaan tambang batubara

Indonesia is one of the largest coal exporters with about 25 % share in the world market. It is predicted that as the coal and oil price increased, the export volume would continue to increase. Government had a policy to secure self-energy sufficiency which meant that all power plants and related industries might have enough supply. However, the decreasing of coal price in 2012-2015 caused by the expansion of shale production and the increasing of international clean energy campaign, led decreasing of EBIT’s coal company and the value of stock. This study aimed to investigate the impact of external and internal factors on financial performance and stock return of coal companies listed in Indonesia stock exchange. Simultaneous equations model was constructed and estimated using 2SLS (Two Stage Least Squares) method. Annual data panel of seven coal mining companies from 2012 up to 2017 were utilized. In general, every year the value of coal export sales from seven companies was higher than the value of domestic sales, because the export selling price was always higher than the domestic selling price so that coal companies tend to choose coal exports abroad. This happened because in the implementation there was no sanction for the company if not follow the DMO scheme. The simulation result showed that international coal price decrease had a largest impact on EBIT, PAT, and EVA; while depreciation of Rupiah currency had a big impact on MVA and stock return. Reduction of cost of revenue and operational and general/administration expense were the actions on internal factors to eliminate the impact due to external factor changes. In the condition of international coal prices fell 15% and the rupiah exchange rate against the USD depreciated 10% then these conditions were anticipated by lowering income costs as well as general and administrative expenses by 20%, impacting the improvement of the financial performance of coal companies namely increase in profit (LB), increase in EBIT, PAT respectively 3,276%, 7.59 %, 16.26 %. It also has an impact on the increase in the value of EVA as much as 17.38 %, but this anticipatory action could not improve the MVA value and stock return