A Prediction Model to Prioritize Individuals for a SARS-CoV-2 Test Built from National Symptom Surveys

Background: The gold standard for COVID-19 diagnosis is detection of viral RNA through PCR. Due to global limitations in testing capacity, effective prioritization of individuals for testing is essential. Methods: We devised a model estimating the probability of an individual to test positive for COVID-19 based on answers to 9 simple questions that have been associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our model was devised from a subsample of a national symptom survey that was answered over 2 million times in Israel in its first 2 months and a targeted survey distributed to all residents of several cities in Israel. Overall, 43,752 adults were included, from which 498 self-reported as being COVID-19 positive. Findings: Our model was validated on a held-out set of individuals from Israel where it achieved an auROC of 0.737 (CI: 0.712–0.759) and auPR of 0.144 (CI: 0.119–0.177) and demonstrated its applicability outside of Israel in an independently collected symptom survey dataset from the US, UK, and Sweden. Our analyses revealed interactions between several symptoms and age, suggesting variation in the clinical manifestation of the disease in different age groups. Conclusions: Our tool can be used online and without exposure to suspected patients, thus suggesting worldwide utility in combating COVID-19 by better directing the limited testing resources through prioritization of individuals for testing, thereby increasing the rate at which positive individuals can be identified. Moreover, individuals at high risk for a positive test result can be isolated prior to testing. Funding: E.S. is supported by the Crown Human Genome Center, Larson Charitable Foundation New Scientist Fund, Else Kroener Fresenius Foundation, White Rose International Foundation, Ben B. and Joyce E. Eisenberg Foundation, Nissenbaum Family, Marcos Pinheiro de Andrade and Vanessa Buchheim, Lady Michelle Michels, and Aliza Moussaieff and grants funded by the Minerva foundation with funding from the Federal German Ministry for Education and Research and by the European Research Council and the Israel Science Foundation. H.R. is supported by the Israeli Council for Higher Education (CHE) via the Weizmann Data Science Research Center and by a research grant from Madame Olga Klein – Astrachan

Rationale and design of a randomised controlled trial testing the effect of personalised diet in individuals with pre-diabetes or type 2 diabetes mellitus treated with metformin

Introduction: Metformin and diets aimed at promoting healthy body weight are the first line in treating type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Clinical practice, backed by clinical trials, suggests that many individuals do not reach glycaemic targets using this approach alone. The primary aim of the Personalised Medicine in Pre-diabetes— Towards Preventing Diabetes in Individuals at Risk (PREDICT) Study is to test the efficacy of personalised diet as adjuvant to metformin in improving glycaemic control in individuals with dysglycaemia. Methods and analysis: PREDICT is a two-arm, parallel group, single-masked randomised controlled trial in adults with pre-diabetes or early-stage T2DM (with glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) up to 8.0% (64 mmol/mol)), not treated with glucose-lowering medication. PREDICT is conducted at the Clinical Research Facility at the Garvan Institute of Medical Research (Sydney). Enrolment of participants commenced in December 2018 and expected to complete in December 2021. Participants are commenced on metformin (Extended Release, titrated to a target dose of 1500mg/day) and randomised with equal allocation to either (1) the Personalised Nutrition Project algorithm-based diet or (2) low-fat high-dietary fibre diet, designed to provide caloric restriction (75%) in individuals with body mass index >25 kg/m2. Treatment duration is 6 months and participants visit the Clinical Research Facility five times over approximately 7 months. The primary outcome measure is HbA1c. The secondary outcomes are (1) time of interstitial glucose <7.8 mmol/L and (2) glycaemic variability (continuous glucose monitoring), (3) body weight, (4) fat mass and (5) abdominal visceral fat volume (dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry), serum (6) low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (7) high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and (8) triglycerides concentrations, (9) blood pressure, and (10) liver fat (Fibroscan). Ethics and dissemination: The study has been approved by the St Vincent’s Hospital Human Research Ethics Committee (File 17/080, Sydney, Australia) and the Weizmann Institutional Review Board (File 528-3, Rehovot, Israel). The findings will be published in peer-reviewed open access medical journals. Trial registration number NCT03558867; Pre-results