Estimating the potential impact of nonvoters on outcomes of parlimentary elections in proportional systems with the applications to German national elections from 1949 to 2005

"If [voter] turnout was 100%, would it affect the election result?" (Bernhagen and Marsh 2007) is a frequently asked research question. So far, the question has been primarily answered regarding the changes in the distribution of votes. This article extends the analysis to changes in the distribution of seats and government formation. It proposes a method that factors in apportionment methods, barring clauses, size of parliaments, leverage of nonvoters, closeness of election results, and individual characteristics of nonvoters. The method is then applied to German national elections from 1949 to 2005. The application shows that Germany's Social Democratic Party (SPD) would have gained from the counterfactual participation of nonvoters, although usually not enough to result in a government change. However by the 1994 and 2005 elections evidence shows that such a government change could have happened. --

Well-being and inequality

An objective and a subjective approach to study well-being is introduced. The objective approach is particularly useful to compare the quality of life of given societies across time and space. Using the objective approach, we can identify strong differences of quality of life between European countries. In comparison to Western Europe, East European countries tend to have a rather low quality of life. Austria, the Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark and Belgium form a cluster of countries with high quality of life. The subjective approach to study well-being is useful for investigating the importance of dimensions of social inequality for people themselves. It is shown that most of the inequality dimensions traditionally analysed by social scientists affect peoples subjective well-being. However, it is also shown that some of the more materialistic inequality dimensions (such as income) tend to be less important in rich societies, while certain non-materialistic dimensions (such as family) are getting more important. The subjective approach to study well-being is also used to investigate the importance of characteristics of societies for peoples well-being. --

From nationally bounded to pan-European inequalities? On the importance of foreign countries as reference groups

In sociology, the appropriateness of national approaches for understanding social inequality in todays societies is being increasingly questioned, and EU-wide approaches are advocated instead. In this paper, we link the growing debate about national or EU-wide approaches to reference group theory, investigating whether comparisons with foreign countries influence levels of individual life satisfaction. Our results indicate that, on the one hand, more people can be assumed to have a national frame of reference than a broader international one; on the other hand, among those who do have an idea of how average people in other countries live, cross-border comparisons certainly influence peoples satisfaction with life. Upward comparisons in particular are important: The more people feel personally deprived, relative to other countries, the less satisfied they are with their lives. In contrast, the feeling of relative gratification has a much smaller impact on life satisfaction, and often no impact at all. This leads us to conclude that EU-wide approaches to inequality do make sense, but that there is also no need to jettison national approaches completely. --

The inequality of electoral participation in Europe and America and the politically integrative functions of the welfare state

Electoral turnout is shown to be higher and less socially skewed in member states of the enlarged European Union than in the United States. The differences in the levels of turnout can partly be related to differences in election procedures, but since the procedural rules provide similar incentives or disincentives to all social groups they cannot explain the much higher inequality of electoral participation in America. There is some evidence to sustain the notion that the higher inclusiveness of the West European welfare state fosters political integration and the equality of electoral participation. In line with this notion differences between Europe and America diminish considerably when the analysis is confined to the pensioner generation whose integration into welfare state schemes is largely similar on both sides of the Atlantic. --

Election outcomes and maximizing turnout: Modelling the effect

An election outcome reflects institutional, behavioural and attitudinal influences. We set out a model showing it is a function of the electoral system, the offices at stake and the number of parties competing as well as the choices of voters and the level of turnout. Therefore, any attempt to estimate the impact of increased turnout on an election outcome must go beyond a comparison of the party preferences of voters and non-voters. This paper presents a model which integrates six different types of influences that collectively determine election outcomes. It demonstrates empirically that maximum turnout falls well short of 100 percent turnout. It also shows the effect of proportional representation and multiple parties in reducing the net benefit that any one party could expect from increased turnout and the inadequacy of using shares of the popular vote to predict increased turnout effects in the United States. It leaves open the normative debate between advocates of civic participation and the libertarian value of being free not to vote. --

Speaking Stata: On structure and shape: the case of multiple responses

A frequent problem in data management is that datasets may not arrive in the best structure for many analyses, so that it may be necessary to restructure the data in some way. The particular case of multiple response data is discussed at length, with special attention to different possible structures; the generation of new variables holding the data in different form; valuable inbuilt string and egen functions; using foreach and forvalues to loop over lists; and the use of the reshape command. Tabulations and graphics for such data are also reviewed brießy. Copyright 2003 by Stata Corporation.composite variables, concatenation, egen, foreach, forvalues, graphics, indicator variables, multiple responses, reshape, split, string functions, tabulations

Possible Uses of Nonprobability Sampling for the Social Sciences

This paper compares the usability of data stemming from probability sampling with data stemming from nonprobability sampling. It develops six research scenarios that differ in their research goals and assumptions about the data generating process. It is shown that inferences from data stemming from nonprobability sampling implies demanding assumptions on the homogeneity of the units being studied. Researchers who are not willing to pose these assumptions are generally better off using data from probability sampling, regardless of the amount of nonresponse. However, even in cases when data from probability sampling is clearly advertised, data stemming from nonprobability sampling may contribute to the cumulative scientific endeavour of pinpointing a plausible interval for the parameter of interest

Estimating the potential impact of nonvoters on outcomes of parliamentary elections in proportional systems with an application to German national elections from 1949 to 2005

"'If (voter) turnout was 100%, would it affect the election result?' (Bernhagen and Marsh 2007) is a frequently asked research question. So far, the question has been primarily answered regarding the changes in the distribution of votes. This article extends the analysis to changes in the distribution of seats and government formation. It proposes a method that factors in apportionment methods, barring clauses, size of parliaments, leverage of nonvoters, closeness of election results, and individual characteristics of nonvoters. The method is then applied to German national elections from 1949 to 2005. The application shows that Germany's Social Democratic Party (SPD) would have gained from the counterfactual participation of nonvoters, although usually not enough to result in a government change. However by the 1994 and 2005 elections evidence shows that such a government change could have happened." (author's abstract

Comparing coefficients between nested nonlinear probability models

In a series of recent articles, Karlson, Holm, and Breen have developed a method for comparing estimated coefficients of nested nonlinear probability models. The KHB method is a general decomposition method that is unaffected by the rescaling or attenuation bias that arises in cross- model comparisons in nonlinear models. It recovers the degree to which a control variable Z mediates or explains the relationship between X and a latent outcome variable Y* underlying the nonlinear probability model. It also decomposes effects of both discrete and continuous variables, applies to average partial effects, and provides analytically derived statistical tests. The method can be extended to other models in the generalized linear model family. This presentation describes this method and the user-written program khb that implements the method.

Well-being and inequality

"An objective and a subjective approach to study well-being is introduced. The objective approach is particularly useful to compare the quality of life of given societies across time and space. Using the objective approach, we can identify strong differences of quality of life between European countries. In comparison to Western Europe, East European countries tend to have a rather low quality of life. Austria, the Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark and Belgium form a cluster of countries with high quality of life. The subjective approach to study well-being is useful for investigating the importance of dimensions of social inequality for people themselves. It is shown that most of the inequality dimensionstraditionally analysed by social scientists affect people's subjective well-being. However, it is also shown that some of the more materialistic inequality dimensions (such as income) tend to be less important in rich societies, while certain non-materialistic dimensions (such as family) are getting more important. The subjective approach to study well-being is also used to investigate the importance of characteristics of societies for people's well-being." (author's abstract