Large Fluctuations in Consumption in Least Developed Countries

The objective of this paper is to shed light on mechanism which increases fluctuation in consumption of least developed countries. In general large fluctuation in consumption makes consumers worse off. This fact suggests that accumulation of knowledge on the generating mechanism of the large consumption fluctuation very likely contributes to welfare improvement of the least developed countries, through policies stabilizing consumption. We specifically investigated the fluctuation in consumption, through the numerical analysis with a dynamic macroeconomic model.Consumption, LDC, Developing countries

Geomagnetic and Solar Modulation Effects of Sea-Level Cosmic Ray Intensity -Summary of Cosmic Ray Latitude Surveys Aboard the Expedition Ship SOYA during 1956-1962-

Five latitude surveys for measurements of the cosmic ray nucleonic and meson components have been carried out aboard M/S SOYA along a definite route between Japan and the Antarctic during 1956-1962. Using the data obtained from these surveys and also some other related data, investigations of the relationship between the cosmic ray intensity and the permanent magnetic field of the earth were performed, and the results are summarized in two parts. In Part 1, latitude variations of cosmic ray intensities in a stationary state are studied with respect to the cosmic ray equator, the cosmic ray latitude knee, and the threshold rigidities. It is shown that the world-wide distribution of the cosmic ray neutron intensities at sea level is, in general, consistent with the spatial distribution of the vertical threshold rigidities determined from the trajectory calculations using a higher order simulation of the geomagnetic field. In this way, a table of the vertical threshold rigidities is prepared at 5°latitude and 10°longitude intervals. From comparisons of the threshold rigidities with experimental data, the overall uncertainty involved in the vertical threshold rigidity is found to be about 0.3 GV. This suggests the limitation of the usefulness of the vertical threshold rigidities which are supposed to account for the actual distribution of cosmic ray intensity over the globe. To minimize the uncertainty, it would be necessary to develop the study of the following three points: representation of the real geomagnetic field, correction for the penumbral effect, and influence of the inclined cosmic ray particles. In Part 2, year-to-year change of the latitude variation of the cosmic ray intensity is examined throughout the last solar cycle 1954-1962. It is found that the position of the latitude knee moves toward a higher rigidity as solar activity increases, from about 1 GV at the solar minimum to about 3 GV at the solar maximum, whereas the geographical position of the cosmic-ray equator remains constant. The change in the slope of the intensity-rigitiy curve, indicating the change in the slope of the primary cosmic ray spectrum, appears to differ during the ascending and descending phases of the solar cycle. The 11-year variation of the response functions for the sea-level nucleonic component is deduced for every year, and is found to be consistent with PARKER\u27S solar wind model proposed for interpretation of the solar cycle modulation. The threshold rigidities and the response functions presented would be available for analyses of other cosmic ray observation results. By actual application to the past special events such as the solar proton increase or the FORBUSH decrease, their general excellency and wide availability are established

Business Cycles of Non-mono-cultural Developing Economies: The Case of ASEAN Countries

Based on analyses of actual data, we reveal that many Asian developing economies own economic structural features of "non-mono-cultural economy" and the "large primary good sector", which have not been discussed in developing economies RBC literature. We also examine the input-output tables to develop a model reflecting actual developing economies\u27 structures. Referring to the analyses, we construct RBC models of ASEAN countries. Based on the model, we find that approximately half of GDP volatility is attributable to domestic productivity shocks, and the remaining half is attributable to price shocks

Large Fluctuations in Consumption in Least Developed Countries

The objective of this paper is to shed light on mechanism which increases fluctuationin consumption of least developed countries. In general large fluctuation inconsumption makes consumers worse off. This fact suggests that accumulation ofknowledge on the generating mechanism of the large consumption fluctuation verylikely contributes to welfare improvement of the least developed countries, throughpolicies stabilizing consumption. We specifically investigated the fluctuation in consumption, through the numerical analysis with a dynamic macroeconomic model

Monetary Policy Effects in Developing Countries with Minimum Wages

Using a Dynamic General Equilibrium (DGE) model, this study examines the effects of monetary policy in economies where minimum wages are bound. The findings show that the monetary-policy effect on a binding-minimum-wage economy is relatively small and quite persistent. This result suggests that these two characteristics of monetary policy in the minimum-wage model are rather different from those in the union-negotiation model which is often assumed to account for industrial economies

Growth-cycle nexus

This research sheds light on the negative correlation between economic growth and business cycle in less developed economies. Whereas many previous studies explain the negative correlation from a viewpoint in which business cycle affects economic growth, we attempt to present a hypothesis based on the other influence direction in which economic growth affects business cycle. We investigate the validity of the hypothesis using two methods: econometric analysis and numerical analysis. We find that the econometric analysis supports our hypothesis. The numerical analysis shows that the effect of the proposed hypothesis produces the negative correlation between economic growth and business cycle

The impact of unstable aids on consumption volatility in developing countries

In recent years, a large and expanding literature has examined the properties of developing economies with regard to the macroeconomic cycle.1 One such property that is characteristic of developing economies is large fluctuations in consumption.Meanwhile, aid for the low income countries is extremely volatile, and under certain circumstances, the volatile aid amplifies the consumption volatility. This document examines whether it is possible that the volatile aid yields high consumption volatility in African countries that constitute the majority of the low income countries. Our numerical analysis reveals that the strongly influential aid disbursements yield a considerably large fluctuation in consumption

Spatial Distributions of Auroral Zone X-Rays as Viewed from Rocket Altitudes

A single-stage sounding rocket S-210JA-3 was launched to an altitude of 130 km over Syowa Station, Antarctica, on 22 July 1971, for high time resolution image formings of spatial patterns of auroral X-rays. A pair of NaI (T1) scintillation counters, sensitive to X-ray energies of 4 KeV to 40 KeV, was used at mounting angles of 45° and 135° with the rocket axis. They succeeded in scanning a considerable part of the sky through the composite operation of the spinning and coning motions of the rocket, and recorded X-ray fluxes with a magnitude of the order of 10 times the background X-ray flux. As a result, a sequence of iso-photo maps, taken every 5 seconds, of X-ray fluxes with respect to the azimuthal and elevation angle coordinates was achieved covering different altitudes between 73 km and 131 km. The forty-four maps thus obtained during the entire flight of 225 seconds demonstrate the fine structures in spatial patterns, and in particular the existence of several points of origin of auroral X-rays and their temporal changes. It will be shown that the gross spatial character of X-rays is well correlated with those of visual aurora seen from the ground and of ultraviolet emissions measured from on board the same rocket. However, detailed comparisons of X-rays with ultraviolet emissions reveal that none of the fine structures of X-ray distributions were detected by means of the ultraviolet detector. The altitude dependence of the X-ray flux will be discussed taking into account temporal and spatial variations of the auroral luminosity

Arailability and Limitation of Multiplicity Measurements in the NM-64 Neutron Monitor at Syowa Station, Antarctica

Multiplicity measurements using the NM-64 neutron monitor have been carried out continuously at Syowa Station, Antarctica, and concurrently once a year along a definite sea-level route between Japan and Syowa Station. The Syowa data obtained during the period from March 1967 to February 1969 are analyzed, together with those from the first two of the latitude surveys which are in progress since 1966. The barometric coefficient and the rigidity response function of the cosmic-ray neutron component are derived as a function of multiplicities from m=1 to m≥6. The multiplicity spectrum is investigated in the cases of the cosmic modulation phenomena such as solar proton event, Forbush decrease and diurnal variation. It is shown that the barometric coefficients and the magnitudes of intensity variations as observed in the solar proton and Forbush decrease events are decreasing with increasing multiplicity, while no significant multiplicity effect is recognized in the diurnal variation. A possibility of distinguishing the various modulation spectra of the primary cosmic radiation on the basis of the multiplicity measurements is examined quantitatively. By taking into account the behavior of higher multiplicities and the accuracy in low rigidity part of the differential response functions, the limitation of the NM-64 neutron monitor in the multiplicity work is discussed