An Alternative to the BDS Test: Integration Across The Correlation Integral

This paper extends and generalizes the BDS test presented by Brock, Dechert, Scheinkman, and LeBaron (1996). In doing so it aims to remove the limitation of having to arbitrarily select a proximity parameter by integrating across the correlation integral. The Monte Carlo simulation is used to tabulate critical values of the alternative statistic. Previously published empirical studies are replicated as well as power tests executed in order to evaluate the relative performance of the suggested alternative to the BDS test. The results are favorable for the suggested alternative.chaos, nonlinear dynamics, correlation integral, Monte Carlo, exchange rates

Detecting Structural Breaks: Exchange Rates in Transition Economies

The aim of this paper is to provide evidence about the existence or non- existence of structural breaks in exchange rates of European transition economies. We used the testing procedure of Vogelsang (1997) that allows for detecting a break at an unknown date in the trend function of a dynamic univariate time series. The procedure does not impose restrictions on the nature of data since it allows trending and unit- root regressors. The results depend in a striking way on the economic climate of a particular country. In Balkan countries, which belong to less stable economies, the measures adopted by monetary authorities indeed brought about a structural break in exchange rate behavior. In more stable transition economies, such as those in Central Europe, the monetary steps tended to stabilize the exchange rate behavior. Finally, the exchange rates of the Baltic countries offer mixed results.Exchange rate, Transition, Structural change, Monetary policy

Disparities of Exchange Rates in CEE Countries

This paper analyzes disparities among nominal and real exchange rate movements across the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries from 1991 to 1996. The method of analyzing such processes is to examine whether the differentials of exchange rate changes converge or diverge over time. Currently nine countries in Central and Eastern Europe have formally applied for full membership in the European Union. The results support convergence in general, but indicate a wide disparity in the degree of convergence. From the real exchange rate standpoint the paper identifies the best candidates to join the European Union in the first round of accession.Exchange rates, Convergence, Transition, European Union

Development of Ownership Structure and its Effect on Performance: Czech Firms from Mass Privatization

This paper works with a broad data sample of Czech voucher-privatized firms during 1996 - 1999. It analyzes the development of ownership structure and consequently its effect on a firm's performance Ownership concentration had been quite high in 1996 and steadily increased. The single largest owner was found to be a decisive shareholder. Industrial companies have been the most stable shareholder and recorded the largest ownership gains. Ownership concentration alone does not explain a change in a firm’s performance and no industry sector was found to have a specific effect on it. We found evidence that several types of owners have an effect on certain performance measures. However, there does not exist support that type of owner has an effect on a firm's performance in general.Ownership structure, firm's performance, voucher privatization, type of owner, panel data

Detecting Structural Breaks: Exchange Rates in Transition Economies

The aim of this paper is to provide evidence about the existence or non-existence of structural breaks in exchange rates of European transition economies. We used the testing procedure of Vogelsang (1997) that allows for detecting a break at an unknown date in the trend function of a dynamic univariate time series. The procedure does not impose restrictions on the nature of data since it allows trending and unit-root regressors. The results depend in a striking way on the economic climate of a particular country. In Balkan countries, which belong to less stable economies, the measures adopted by monetary authorities indeed brought about a structural break in exchange rate behavior. In more stable transition economies, such as those in Central Europe, the monetary steps tended to stabilize the exchange rate behavior. Finally, the exchange rates of the Baltic countries offer mixed results.Exchange rate, transition, structural change, monetary policy.

Corruption and Anticorruption in the Czech Republic

It is widely acknowledged that corruption has negative impact on economy and society. Transition process in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) uncovered dormant possibilities for corruption that consequently required appropriate steps to be taken against. We attempted to document the state of corruption in the Czech Republic and the measures introduced to fight it. We covered sectors of society and economy according to their importance in the prevention of a corruption and a consequential hazard to the society. We also described the governmental concept of anti-corruption measures and outlined achievements and failures of such a program. The overall impression favors persistent presence of corruption within the society and economy in the Czech Republic. The state of corruption in the country, measured by the Corruption Perception Index, presents a serious problem since the index does not improve as transition process advances. Numerous comparative studies, however, suggest that corruption is more prominent feature in a number of other transition countries. We believe that the institutional framework to prevent and fight corruption appears to be improving.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39729/3/wp345.pd

Foreign Exchange Risk Premium Determinants: Case of Armenia

This paper studies foreign exchange risk premium using the uncovered interest rate parity framework in a single country context. The analysis is performed using weekly data on foreign and domestic currency deposits in Armenian banking system. The paper provides the results of the simple tests of uncovered interest parity condition, which indicate that contrary to established view dominating in empirical literature there is a positive correspondence between exchange rate depreciation and interest rate differentials in Armenian deposit market. Furthermore, the paper presents and discusses a systematic positive risk premium required by the economic agents for foreign exchange transactions, which increases over the investment horizon. The two currency affine term structure framework is applied to identify the factors driving the systematic exchange rate risk premium in Armenia. At the end, possible directions for further research are outlined.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40197/3/wp811.pd

The Effects of Ownership Forms and Concentration on Firm Performance after Large-Scale Privatization

We analyze the effect of ownership on post-privatization performance in a virtually complete population of medium and large firms privatized in a model large-scale privatization economy (Czech Republic). We reject the hypothesis that domestic or foreign private ownership, in either moderate or high ownership concentrations, leads to increased sales. However, private domestic and foreign majority and significant minority owners, as well as dispersed owners, increase profitability relative to state-owned firms. Firms with dispersed ownership register higher positive effect on profit than firms with more concentrated ownership, thus giving support to theories stressing managerial autonomy and initiative. Foreign owners with high as well as moderate concentrations of ownership uniformly reduce financial leverage, as do majority domestic owners. Domestic banks and portfolio companies as single largest owners (SLO) are incapable of carrying out major restructuring. Foreign industrial company SLOs carry out strategic restructuring in production and financing without deviating from the state ownership benchmark in terms of the labor cost. The effect of SLO does not vary with the SLO's concentration of ownership. Overall, private ownership tends to be associated with superior performance in terms of some indicators but not others, and dispersed ownership results in better or equal performance than more concentrated forms of ownership.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39855/3/wp471.pd

Time-Varying Comovements in Developed and Emerging European Stock Markets: Evidence from Intraday Data

We study comovements between three developed (France, Germany, the United Kingdom) and three emerging (the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland) European stock markets. The novelty of our paper is that we apply the Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH models proposed by Engle (2002) to five-minute tick intraday stock price data for the period from June 2003 to January 2006. We find a strong correlation between the German and French markets and also between these two markets and the UK stock market. By contrast, very little systematic positive correlation can be detected between the Western European stock markets and the three stock markets of Central and Eastern Europe, as well as within the latter group.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/57241/1/wp861 .pd

Development of Ownership Structure and its Effect on Performance: Czech Firms from Mass Privatization

This paper works with a broad data sample of Czech voucher-privatized firms during 1996 - 1999. It analyzes the development of ownership structure and consequently its effect on a firm's performance Ownership concentration had been quite high in 1996 and steadily increased. The single largest owner was found to be a decisive shareholder. Industrial companies have been the most stable shareholder and recorded the largest ownership gains. Ownership concentration alone does not explain a change in a firm’s performance and no industry sector was found to have a specific effect on it. We found evidence that several types of owners have an effect on certain performance measures. However, there does not exist support that type of owner has an effect on a firm's performance in general.ownership structure; firm's performance; voucher privatization; type of owner; panel data