Evidence of a stratospheric QBO modulation of tropical convection

January 1993.Also issued as author's thesis (M.S.) -- Colorado State University, 1992.Includes bibliographical references.Evidence is presented of a modulation of deep tropical convection by the Stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (SQBO) in convective anomalies, precipitation and pressure in the Western Tropical Pacific region. In particular, the SQBO, by creating differing amounts of upper tropospheric (200 mb) to lower stratospheric (50 mb) zonal wind shear, appears to modulate deep tropical convection. Results suggest that in the tropical West Pacific region, strong values of this vertical shear act to suppress convection, limit rainfall and often raise surface pressures. During the west phase of the SQBO, areas of least 200 mb to 50 mb shear are located in off-equator regions. In contrast, during the east phase of the SQBO, minimum 200 mb to 50 mb zonal wind shear is located along the equator. These differences result in convection being preferred off (on) the equator during the west (east) phase of the SQBO. Because the SQBO creates opposing patterns of this 200 mb to 50 mb zonal wind shear during the east and west phases, convection is modulated by each of these patterns for a prolonged (6-18 month) period, thus allowing time for gradual change in the West Pacific general circulation. The convection, rainfall, pressure, and circulation patterns associated with the differing phases of the SQBO are discussed along with a preliminary theory for these patterns. Furthermore, evidence is presented that the west phase of the SQBO favors cold ENSO events whereas the east phase favors warm ENSO events.Sponsored by NOAA NA16RC0116, and NSF ATM-9115184

A simple model for predicting the hurricane radius of maximum wind from outer size

The radius of maximum wind ($R_{max}$) in a hurricane governs the footprint of hazards, particularly damaging wind and rainfall. However, $R_{max}$ is noisy to observe directly and is poorly resolved in reanalyses and climate models. In contrast, outer wind radii are much less sensitive to such issues. Here we present a simple empirical model for predicting $R_{max}$ from the radius of 34-kt wind ($R_{17.5ms}$) that only requires as input quantities that are routinely estimated operationally: maximum wind speed, $R_{17.5ms}$, and latitude. The form of the empirical model takes advantage of our physical understanding of hurricane radial structure and is trained on the Extended Best Track database from the North Atlantic; results are similar for the TC-OBS database. The physics reduces the relationship between the two radii to a dependence on two physical parameters, while the observational data enables an optimal estimate of the quantitative dependence on those parameters. The model performs substantially better than existing operational methods for estimating $R_{max}$. The model reproduces the observed statistical increase in $R_{max}$ with latitude and demonstrates that this increase is driven by the increase in $R_{17.5ms}$ with latitude. Overall, the model offers a simple and fast first-order prediction of $R_{max}$ that can be used operationally and in risk models

A simple model for predicting tropical cyclone minimum central pressure from intensity and size

Minimum central pressure ($P_{min}$) is an integrated measure of the tropical cyclone wind field and is known to be a useful indicator of storm damage potential. A simple model that predicts $P_{min}$ from routinely-estimated quantities, including storm size, would be of great value. Here we present a simple linear empirical model for predicting $P_{min}$ from maximum wind speed, the radius of 34-knot winds ($R_{34kt}$), storm-center latitude, and the environmental pressure. An empirical model for the pressure deficit is first developed that takes as predictors specific combinations of these quantities that are derived directly from theory, based on gradient wind balance and a modified-Rankine-type wind profile known to capture storm structure inside of $R_{34kt}$. Model coefficients are estimated using data from the southwestern North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific from 2004--2022 using aircraft-based estimates of $P_{min}$, Extended Best Track data, and estimates of environmental pressure from Global Forecast System (GFS) analyses. The model has near-zero conditional bias even for low $P_{min}$, explaining 94.4\% of the variance. Performance is superior to a variety of other model formulations, including a standard wind-pressure model that does not account for storm size or latitude (89.4\% variance explained). Model performance is also strong when applied to high-latitude data and data near coastlines. Finally, the model is shown to perform comparably well in an operations-like setting based solely on routinely-estimated variables, including the pressure of the outermost closed isobar. Case study applications to five impactful historical storms are discussed. Overall, the model offers a simple and fast prediction for $P_{min}$ for practical use in operations and research

Development of RGB Composite Imagery for Operational Weather Forecasting Applications

No abstract availabl

Development of RGB Composite Imagery for Operational Weather Forecasting Applications

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, in collaboration with the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA), is providing red-green-blue (RGB) color composite imagery to several of NOAA s National Centers and National Weather Service forecast offices as a demonstration of future capabilities of the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) to be implemented aboard GOES-R. Forecasters rely upon geostationary satellite imagery to monitor conditions over their regions of responsibility. Since the ABI will provide nearly three times as many channels as the current GOES imager, the volume of data available for analysis will increase. RGB composite imagery can aid in the compression of large data volumes by combining information from multiple channels or paired channel differences into single products that communicate more information than provided by a single channel image. A standard suite of RGB imagery has been developed by the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT), based upon the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI). The SEVIRI instrument currently provides visible and infrared wavelengths comparable to the future GOES-R ABI. In addition, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments aboard the NASA Terra and Aqua satellites can be used to demonstrate future capabilities of GOES-R. This presentation will demonstrate an overview of the products currently disseminated to SPoRT partners within the GOES-R Proving Ground, and other National Weather Service forecast offices, along with examples of their application. For example, CIRA has used the channels of the current GOES sounder to produce an "air mass" RGB originally designed for SEVIRI. This provides hourly imagery over CONUS for looping applications while demonstrating capabilities similar to the future ABI instrument. SPoRT has developed similar "air mass" RGB imagery from MODIS, and through a case study example, synoptic-scale features evident in single-channel water vapor imagery are shown in the context of the air mass product. Other products, such as the "nighttime microphysics" RGB, are useful in the detection of low clouds and fog. Nighttime microphysics products from MODIS offer some advantages over single-channel or spectral difference techniques and will be discussed in the context of a case study. Finally, other RGB products from SEVIRI are being demonstrated as precursors to GOES-R within the GOES-R Proving Ground. Examples of "natural color" and "dust" imagery will be shown with relevant applications

Current Usage and Future Prospects of Multispectral (RGB) Satellite Imagery in Support of NWS Forecast Offices and National Centers

Current and future satellite sensors provide remotely sensed quantities from a variety of wavelengths ranging from the visible to the passive microwave, from both geostationary and low-Earth orbits. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has a long history of providing multispectral imagery from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard NASA s Terra and Aqua satellites in support of NWS forecast office activities. Products from MODIS have recently been extended to include a broader suite of multispectral imagery similar to those developed by EUMETSAT, based upon the spectral channel s available from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) aboard METEOSAT-9. This broader suite includes products that discriminate between air mass types associated with synoptic-scale features, assists in the identification of dust, and improves upon paired channel difference detection of fog and low cloud events. Similarly, researchers at NOAA/NESDIS and CIRA have developed air mass discrimination capabilities using channels available from the current GOES Sounders. Other applications of multispectral composites include combinations of high and low frequency, horizontal and vertically polarized passive microwave brightness temperatures to discriminate tropical cyclone structures and other synoptic-scale features. Many of these capabilities have been transitioned for evaluation and operational use at NWS Weather Forecast Offices and National Centers through collaborations with SPoRT and CIRA. Future instruments will continue the availability of these products and also expand upon current capabilities. The Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) on GOES-R will improve the spectral, spatial, and temporal resolution of our current geostationary capabilities, and the recent launch of the Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) carries instruments such as the Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), and the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS), which have unrivaled spectral and spatial resolution, as precursors to the JPSS era (i.e., the next generation of polar orbiting satellites). At the same time, new image manipulation and display capabilities are available within AWIPS II, the next generation of the NWS forecaster decision support system. This presentation will present a review of SPoRT, CIRA, and NRL collaborations regarding multispectral satellite imagery and articulate an integrated and collaborative path forward with Raytheon AWIPS II development staff for integrating current and future capabilities that support new satellite instrumentation and the AWIPS II decision support system

Analysis of Hurricanes Using Long-Range Lightning Detection Networks

The new GOES-R satellite will be equipped with the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) that will provide unprecedented total lightning data with the potential to improve hurricane intensity forecasts. Past studies have provided conflicting interpretations of the role that lightning plays in forecasting tropical cyclone (TC) intensity changes. With the goal of improving the usefulness of total lightning, detailed case studies were conducted of five TCs that underwent rapid intensification (RI) within the domains of two unique ground-based long-range lightning detection networks, the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) and Earth Networks Total Lightning Network (ENTLN). This analysis will provide greater details of the distribution of lightning within predefined storm features to highlight specific phenomena that large statistical studies cannot resolve.Both WWLLN and ENTLN datasets showed similar spatial and temporal patterns in lightning that validates the independent use of either network for analysis. For the cases examined, a maxima in eyewall lightning was located downshear and in the front-right quadrants relative to storm motion. Results show that RI follows a burst of lightning in the eyewall when coinciding with a period of little environmental vertical shear. Eyewall lightning would cycle with greater frequency during intensification compared to weakening. Bursts of lightning were observed in the eyewall just prior to eye formation in both the infrared and microwave imagery. Eyewall lightning bursts in low shear environments could be used to indicate intensification and improve forecasts.University Libraries Undergraduate Research Awardundergraduat

Complex formation between ferredoxin and Synechococcus ferredoxin:nitrate oxidoreductase

AbstractThe ferredoxin-dependent nitrate reductase from the cyanobacterium Synechococcus sp. PCC 7942 has been shown to form a high-affinity complex with ferredoxin at low ionic strength. This complex, detected by changes in both the absorbance and circular dichroism (CD) spectra, did not form at high ionic strength. When reduced ferredoxin served as the electron donor for the reduction of nitrate to nitrite, the activity of the enzyme declined markedly as the ionic strength increased. In contrast, the activity of the enzyme with reduced methyl viologen (a non-physiological electron donor) was independent of ionic strength. These results suggest that an electrostatically stabilized complex between Synechococcus nitrate reductase and ferredoxin plays an important role in the mechanism of nitrate reduction catalyzed by this enzyme. Treatment of Synechococcus nitrate reductase with either an arginine-modifying reagent or a lysine-modifying reagent inhibited the ferredoxin-dependent activity of the enzyme but did not affect the methyl viologen-dependent activity. Treatment with these reagents also resulted in a large decrease in the affinity of the enzyme for ferredoxin. Formation of a nitrate reductase complex with ferredoxin prior to treatment with either reagent protected the enzyme against loss of ferredoxin-dependent activity. These results suggest that lysine and arginine residues are present at the ferredoxin-binding site of Synechococcus nitrate reductase. Results of experiments using site-specific, charge reversal variants of the ferredoxin from the cyanobacterium Anabaena sp. PCC 7119 as an electron donor to nitrate reductase were consistent with a role for negatively charged residues on ferredoxin in the interaction with Synechococcus nitrate reductase