Emergence of cascading dynamics in interacting tipping elements of ecology and climate

In ecology, climate and other fields, (sub)systems have been identified that can transition into a qualitatively different state when a critical threshold or tipping point in a driving process is crossed. An understanding of those tipping elements is of great interest given the increasing influence of humans on the biophysical Earth system. Complex interactions exist between tipping elements, e.g. physical mechanisms connect subsystems of the climate system. Based on earlier work on such coupled nonlinear systems, we systematically assessed the qualitative long-term behaviour of interacting tipping elements. We developed an understanding of the consequences of interactions on the tipping behaviour allowing for tipping cascades to emerge under certain conditions. The (narrative) application of these qualitative results to real-world examples of interacting tipping elements indicates that tipping cascades with profound consequences may occur: the interacting Greenland ice sheet and thermohaline ocean circulation might tip before the tipping points of the isolated subsystems are crossed. The eutrophication of the first lake in a lake chain might propagate through the following lakes without a crossing of their individual critical nutrient input levels. The possibility of emerging cascading tipping dynamics calls for the development of a unified theory of interacting tipping elements and the quantitative analysis of interacting real-world tipping elements.Comment: 22 pages, 8 figure

University entrepreneurship in South Africa : developments in technology transfer practices

Although formalised practices of technology transfer at research institutions are well established in many developed countries, these practices are still very much in their infancy in South Africa. The country is however currently focused on improving technology transfer activities and measuring the performance thereof, as exemplified by the recent implementation of a new intellectual property act. In support of the latter and in an effort to obtain an accurate overview of the status quo of technology transfer in South Africa, it was decided to evaluate organisational structures and key factors determining successful technology transfer at 13 publicly funded research institutions. It is recommended that technology transfer practices in South Africa be further strengthened through the expansion of dynamic collaborative networks and communities of practice. Crucial to these objectives is the development of appropriate metrics for measuring the successes and impact of technology transfer, taking into account the socio-economic and institutional specificities in South Africa.South African Research and Innovation Management Association (SARIMA), and the World Bank Institute.http://www.innovation-enterprise.com/hb2014ay201

A Comparative Transcriptome Analysis of Human and Porcine Choroid Plexus Cells in Response to Streptococcus suis Serotype 2 Infection Points to a Role of Hypoxia

Streptococcus suis (S. suis) is an important opportunistic pathogen, which can cause septicemia and meningitis in pigs and humans. Previous in vivo observations in S. suisinfected pigs revealed lesions at the choroid plexus (CP). In vitro experiments with primary porcine CP epithelial cells (PCPEC) and human CP epithelial papilloma (HIBCPP) cells demonstrated that S. suis can invade and traverse the CP epithelium, and that the CP contributes to the inflammatory response via cytokine expression. Here, next generation sequencing (RNA-seq) was used to compare global transcriptome profiles of PCPEC and HIBCPP cells challenged with S. suis serotype (ST) 2 infected in vitro, and of pigs infected in vivo. Identified differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were, amongst others, involved in inflammatory responses and hypoxia. The RNA-seq data were validated via quantitative PCR of selected DEGs. Employing Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA), 18, 28, and 21 enriched hallmark gene sets (GSs) were identified for infected HIBCPP cells, PCPEC, and in the CP of pigs suffering from S. suis ST2 meningitis, respectively, of which eight GSs overlapped between the three different sample sets. The majority of these GSs are involved in cellular signaling and pathways, immune response, and development, including inflammatory response and hypoxia. In contrast, suppressed GSs observed during in vitro and in vivo S. suis ST2 infections included those, which were involved in cellular proliferation and metabolic processes. This study suggests that similar cellular processes occur in infected human and porcine CP epithelial cells, especially in terms of inflammatory response

COMPARE Family (Children of Mentally Ill Parents at Risk Evaluation): A Study Protocol for a Preventive Intervention for Children of Mentally Ill Parents (Triple P, Evidence-Based Program That Enhances Parentings Skills, in Addition to Gold-Standard CBT With the Mentally Ill Parent) in a Multicenter RCT—Part II

Background: Mental health problems are highly frequent, as well as being associated with enormous societal and economic costs and significant disability-adjusted life years. Children of parents with a mental illness (COPMI) are at a tremendously increased risk to develop disorders themselves. According to the literature, parental mental disorders launch a wave of risk factors that in turn predict the emergence of psychological problems in the offspring, and effective treatment of the parental disorder has been associated with reduced child psychopathology (launch and grow assumption). Furthermore, studies focusing on parent-child interaction demonstrate generally poorer parenting skills in parents with mental disorders, and the enhancement of such skills has been a significant mediator in improving child outcomes (parenting assumption).Objective: To implement a preventive intervention for COPMI with the aim of interrupting the transmission of mental disorders in children of a parent with mental disorders. An RCT will compare state-of-the-art cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) for a parent with mental disorders to CBT plus the Positive Parenting Program (Triple-P), a well-established and evidence-based program that enhances parenting skills.Methods: A total of 634 patients seeking treatment in 8 outpatient clinics in Germany and their children will be included between January 2018 and April 2021 in the study. We use (clinical) interviews and self- as well as other-report questionnaires to assess the families at four main measurement points [T1: beginning of waiting period for psychotherapy treatment (duration of waiting period depends on usual waiting period in the study center: multiple baselines), T2: begin of parental psychotherapy, T3: post-assessment, T4: 6 months follow-up]. The total observation period will be 39 months. The patients will be randomly assigned to either the control condition (25 to 45 CBT sessions) or the experimental condition (25 to 45 CBT sessions + 10 Triple-P sessions). For evaluating the treatment process, the patients and clinicians will also be assessed after each treatment session. Furthermore, there will be a continuous assessment and report of adverse events during treatment.Discussion: This trial will be the first ever to address the launch and grow as well as the parenting assumption in one study and to establish effects of the two different interventions on children's health. Our study will also likely be the first one to provide data on the comparative cost-effectiveness and will therefore provide essential information relevant for the potential implementation of such programs. The structure of the RCT will allow us to establish effects of the parental disorder(s) with/without comorbidities on children's health, to test assumptions of the trans-generational transmission model of mental disorders and bi-directional influences of different treatments on the model and to analyze specific transmission mechanisms. A deeper understanding of risk mechanisms will reveal specific transmission profiles that will result in the early detection of and effective reduction in risk factors and thus improve the health of the children at risk.Ethics: The study is carried out according to the Good Clinical Practice (GCP) guidelines, the Declaration of Helsinki and its later supplements and local legal requirements. The lead ethics committee at the department of psychology at Philipps-University Marburg approved the study procedure and all study documents. A positive ethics committee vote is required at a study site, before the inclusion of a first patient at the respective site.Dissemination: Via peer-reviewed publications in scientific journals, the results of this study will be made available to the scientific community. Using PsychData all primary data will be made available for re- and meta-analyses. Politicians, public health services, and stakeholders will be informed throughout the study and beyond, thus, improving public policy and health care decisions concerning preventive interventions and treatments for COPMI.Trial Registration: DRKS-ID: DRKS00013516 (German Clinical Trials Register, https://www.drks.de/drks_web/navigate.do?navigationId=trial.HTML&TRIAL_ID=DRKS00013516

Chapter 1.2: Tipping points in the cryosphere

Drastic changes in our planet’s frozen landscapes have occurred over recent decades, from Arctic sea ice decline and thawing of permafrost soils to polar amplification, the retreat of glaciers and ice loss from the ice sheets. In this chapter, we assess multiple lines of evidence for tipping points in the cryosphere – encompassing the ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica, sea ice, mountain glaciers and permafrost – based on recent observations, palaeorecords, numerical modelling and theoretical understanding. With about 1.2°C of global warming compared to pre-industrial levels, we are getting dangerously close to the temperature thresholds of some major tipping points for the ice sheets of Greenland and West Antarctica. Crossing these would lock in unavoidable long-term global sea level rise of up to 10 metres. There is evidence for localised and regional tipping points for glaciers and permafrost and, while evidence for global-scale tipping dynamics in sea ice, glaciers and permafrost is limited, their decline will continue with unabated global warming. Because of the long response times of these systems, some impacts of crossing potential tipping points will unfold over centuries to millennia. However, with the current trajectory of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and subsequent anthropogenic climate change, such largely irreversible changes might already have been triggered. These will cause far-reaching impacts for ecosystems and humans alike, threatening the livelihoods of millions of people, and will become more severe the further global warming progresses. The scientific content of this chapter is based on the following manuscript in preparation: Winkelmann et al., (in prep

Global Tipping Points Report 2023: Ch1.2: Cryosphere tipping points.

Drastic changes in our planet’s frozen landscapes have occurred over recent decades, from Arctic sea ice decline and thawing of permafrost soils to polar amplification, the retreat of glaciers and ice loss from the ice sheets. In this chapter, we assess multiple lines of evidence for tipping points in the cryosphere – encompassing the ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica, sea ice, mountain glaciers and permafrost – based on recent observations, palaeorecords, numerical modelling and theoretical understanding. With about 1.2°C of global warming compared to pre-industrial levels, we are getting dangerously close to the temperature thresholds of some major tipping points for the ice sheets of Greenland and West Antarctica. Crossing these would lock in unavoidable long-term global sea level rise of up to 10 metres. There is evidence for localised and regional tipping points for glaciers and permafrost and, while evidence for global-scale tipping dynamics in sea ice, glaciers and permafrost is limited, their decline will continue with unabated global warming. Because of the long response times of these systems, some impacts of crossing potential tipping points will unfold over centuries to millennia. However, with the current trajectory of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and subsequent anthropogenic climate change, such largely irreversible changes might already have been triggered. These will cause far-reaching impacts for ecosystems and humans alike, threatening the livelihoods of millions of people, and will become more severe the further global warming progresses

Leave Me Alone With Your Symptoms! Social Exclusion at the Workplace Mediates the Relationship of Employee's Mental Illness and Sick Leave

Although a substantial part of employees suffers from a mental illness, the work situation of this population still is understudied. Previous research suggests that people with a mental illness experience discrimination in the workplace, which is known to have detrimental effects on health. Building on the stereotype content model and allostatic load theory, the present study investigated whether employees with a mental illness become socially excluded at the workplace and therefore show more days of sick leave. Overall, 86 employees diagnosed with a mental disorder were interviewed and completed online-surveys. Path analyses supported the hypotheses, yielding a serial mediation: The interview-rated severity of the mental disorder had an indirect effect on the days of sick leave, mediated by the symptomatic burden and the social exclusion at the workplace. In the light of the costs associated with absenteeism the present paper highlights the harmfulness of discrimination. Organizations and especially supervisors need to be attentive for signs of exclusion within their teams and try to counteract as early as possible

Global Tipping Points Report 2023: Ch1.5: Climate tipping point interactions and cascades.

This chapter reviews interactions between climate tipping systems and assesses the potential risk of cascading effects. After a definition of tipping system interactions, we map out the current state of the literature on specific interactions between climate tipping systems that may be important for the overall stability of the climate system. For this, we gather evidence from model simulations, observations and conceptual understanding, as well as archetypal examples of palaeoclimate reconstructions where propagating transitions were potentially at play. This chapter concludes by identifying crucial knowledge gaps in tipping system interactions that should be resolved in order to improve risk assessments of cascading transitions under future climate change scenarios

Climate tipping point interactions and cascades: A review

Climate tipping elements are large-scale subsystems of the Earth that may transgress critical thresholds (tipping points) under ongoing global warming, with substantial impacts on the biosphere and human societies. Frequently studied examples of such tipping elements include the Greenland Ice Sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), permafrost, monsoon systems, and the Amazon rainforest. While recent scientific efforts have improved our knowledge about individual tipping elements, the interactions between them are less well understood. Also, the potential of individual tipping events to induce additional tipping elsewhere or stabilize other tipping elements is largely unknown. Here, we map out the current state of the literature on the interactions between climate tipping elements and review the influences between them. To do so, we gathered evidence from model simulations, observations, and conceptual understanding, as well as examples of paleoclimate reconstructions where multi-component or spatially propagating transitions were potentially at play. While uncertainties are large, we find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. Therefore, we conclude that tipping elements should not only be studied in isolation, but also more emphasis has to be put on potential interactions. This means that tipping cascades cannot be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5 and 2.0 ◦C or on shorter timescales if global warming surpassed 2.0 ◦C. At these higher levels of global warming, tipping cascades may then include fast tipping elements such as the AMOC or the Amazon rainforest. To address crucial knowledge gaps in tipping element interactions, we propose four strategies combining observation-based approaches, Earth system modeling expertise, computational advances, and expert knowledge