The above-inversion moisture structure observed during FIRE

Analysis of thermodynamic parameters obtained over the FIRE region from the NCAR Electra aircraft during ascent and descent soundings through and above the subsidence inversion reveals the existence of alternating dry and moist layers in the free atmosphere just above the inversion. This dry/moist wedge structure was observed before over both the tropical and subtropical oceans (Lilly, 1968; Miller and Ahrens, 1970; Riehl, 1979; and Kloesel and Albrecht, 1989). The structure of these layers, as well as, a preliminary investigation of their source are examined

The relationship of marine stratus to synoptic conditions

The marine stratus which persistently covered most of the eastern Pacific Ocean, had large clear areas during the FIRE Intensive Field Operations (IFO) in 1987. Clear zones formed inside the large oceanic cloud mass on almost every day during the IFO. The location and size of the clear zones varied from day to day implying that they were related to dynamic weather conditions and not to oceanic conditions. Forecasting of cloud cover for aircraft operations during the IFO was directed towards predicting when and where the clear and broken zones would form inside the large marine stratus cloud mass. The clear zones often formed to the northwest of the operations area and moved towards it. However, on some days the clear zones appeared to form during the day in the operations area as part of the diurnal cloud burn off. The movement of the clear zones from day to day were hard to follow because of the large diurnal changes in cloud cover. Clear and broken cloud zones formed during the day only to distort in shape and fill during the following night. The field forecasters exhibited some skill in predicting when the clear and broken cloud patterns would form in the operations area. They based their predictions on the analysis and simulations of the models run by NOAA's Numeric Meteorological Center. How the atmospheric conditions analyzed by one NOAA/NMC model related to the cloud cover is discussed

Using PBL to Prepare Educators and Emergency Managers to Plan for Severe Weather

Within the past 10 years severe weather has been responsible for an annual average of 278 fatalities in the United States (National Weather Service, 2013). During severe weather special populations are populations of high concentrations of people that cannot respond quickly. Schools show both of these characteristics. The average lead time for tornadoes is only 11 minutes (Simmons & Sutter, 2008), so decisions must be made decisively and leaders must be prepared in advance. This paper describes how an instructional design process was used to develop an interdisciplinary problem based learning training for both school personnel and emergency managers. In this real world based activity, participants simulated difficult decisions that must be made during severe weather to develop a better understanding of each others’ roles and responsibilities

Aircraft/island/ship/satellite intercomparison: Preliminary results from July 16, 1987

The First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) objective of validating and improving satellite algorithms for inferring cloud properties from satellite radiances was one of the central motivating factors in the design of the specific field experimental strategies used in the July, 1987 marine stratocumulus intensive field observations (IFO). The in situ measuring platforms were deployed to take maximum advantage of redundant measurements (for intercomparison of the in situ sensors) and to provide optimal coverage within satellite images. One of the most ambitious of these strategies was the attempt to coordinate measurements from San Nicolas Island (SNI), the R/V Pt. Sur, the meteorological aircraft, and the satellites. For the most part, this attempt was frustrated by flight restrictions in the vicinity of SNI. The exception was the mission of July 16, 1987, which achieved remarkable success in the coordination of the platforms. This presentation concerns operations conducted by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Electra and how data from the Electra can be integrated with and compared to data from the Pt. Sur, SNI, and the satellites. The focus is on the large-scale, integrated picture of the conditions on July 16 from the perspective of the Electra's flight operations

Presentation: Extreme Weather and Uncertainty in Forecasting

Every day in the news it seems like there are more and more stories about record-breaking weather. Kevin Kloesel is a Texas Ex and Director of the Oklahoma Climatological Survey, working right in the heart of Tornado Alley. He will talk about the science behind extreme weather events such as tornadoes and super storms, and how meteorologists deal with uncertainty in their forecasts. His talk will include demonstrations of extreme weather phenomena, and comparisons between shooting three-point baskets and climate change.Environmental Science Institut

Aircraft/island/ship/satellite intercomparison: Preliminary results from July 16, 1987

The First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) objective of validating and improving satellite algorithms for inferring cloud properties from satellite radiances was one of the central motivating factors in the design of the specific field experimental strategies used in the July, 1987 marine stratocumulus intensive field observations (IFO). The in situ measuring platforms were deployed to take maximum advantage of redundant measurements (for intercomparison of the in situ sensors) and to provide optimal coverage within satellite images. One of the most ambitious of these strategies was the attempt to coordinate measurements from San Nicolas Island (SNI), the R/V Pt. Sur, the meteorological aircraft, and the satellites. For the most part, this attempt was frustrated by flight restrictions in the vicinity of SNI. The exception was the mission of July 16, 1987, which achieved remarkable success in the coordination of the platforms. This presentation concerns operations conducted by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Electra and how data from the Electra can be integrated with and compared to data from the Pt. Sur, SNI, and the satellites. The focus is on the large-scale, integrated picture of the conditions on July 16 from the perspective of the Electra's flight operations.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Unprecedented Drought Challenges for Texas Water Resources in a Changing Climate: What Do Researchers and Stakeholders Need to Know?

Long‐range water planning is complicated by factors that are rapidly changing in the 21st century, including climate, population, and water use. Here, we analyze climate factors and drought projections for Texas as an example of a diverse society straddling an aridity gradient to examine how the projections can best serve water stakeholder needs. We find that climate models are robust in projecting drying of summer‐season soil moisture and decreasing reservoir supplies for both the eastern and western portions of Texas during the 21st century. Further, projections indicate drier conditions during the latter half of the 21st century than even the most arid centuries of the last 1,000 years that included megadroughts. To illustrate how accounting for drought nonstationarity may increase water resiliency, we consider generalized case studies involving four key stakeholder groups: agricultural producers, large surface water suppliers, small groundwater management districts, and regional water planning districts. We also examine an example of customized climate information being used as input to long‐range water planning. We find that while stakeholders value the quantitative capability of climate model outputs, more specific climate‐related information better supports resilience planning across multiple stakeholder groups. New suites of tools could provide necessary capacity for both short‐ and long‐term, stakeholder‐specific adaptive planning.Nielsen‐Gammon, Banner, Wong, and Tremaine were supported in part by the National Science Foundation Coupled Natural and Human Systems program, Grant AGS‐1518541, the Cynthia and George Mitchell Foundation Grant G‐1809‐55892, and by The University of Texas at Austin's Planet Texas 2050 Bridging Barriers research initiative. We thank Katharine Hayhoe, Ron Anderson, and Tim Finley for their insights and contributions to the manuscript. We thank the participants of the CNH project and the Texas Water Research Network for helping to define the problem and identify issues.Office of the VP for Researc