Effects of emissions caps on the costs and feasibility of low-carbon hydrogen in the European ammonia industry

The European ammonia industry emits 36 million tons of carbon dioxide annually, primarily from steam methane reforming (SMR) hydrogen production. These emissions can be mitigated by producing hydrogen via water electrolysis using dedicated renewables with grid backup. This study investigates the impact of decarbonization targets for hydrogen synthesis on the economic viability and technical feasibility of retrofitting existing European ammonia plants for on-site, semi-islanded electrolytic hydrogen production. Results show that electrolytic hydrogen cuts emissions, on average, by 85% (36%-100% based on grid price and carbon intensity), even without enforcing emission limits. However, an optimal lifespan average well-to-gate emission cap of 1 kg carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e)/kg H2 leads to a 95% reduction (92%-100%) while maintaining cost-competitiveness with SMR in renewable-rich regions (mean levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) of 4.1 euro/kg H2). Conversely, a 100% emissions reduction target dramatically increases costs (mean LCOH: 6.3 euro/kg H2) and land area for renewables installations, likely hindering the transition to electrolytic hydrogen in regions with poor renewables and limited land. Increasing plant flexibility effectively reduces costs, particularly in off-grid plants (mean reduction: 32%). This work guides policymakers in defining cost-effective decarbonization targets and identifying region-based strategies to support an electrolytic hydrogen-fed ammonia industry

Timelines for mitigating the methane impacts of using natural gas for carbon dioxide abatement

© 2019 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. Reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions through a reliance on natural gas can create a hidden commitment to methane (CH4) leakage mitigation. While the quantity of CH4 leakage from natural gas has been studied extensively, the magnitude and timing of the CH4 mitigation required to meet climate policy goals is less well understood. Here we address this topic by examining the case of US electricity under a range of baseline natural gas leakage rate estimates and emissions equivalency metrics for converting CH4 to CO2-equivalent emissions. We find that CH4 emissions from the power sector would need to be reduced by 30%-90% from today's levels by 2030 in order to meet a CO2-equivalent climate policy target while continuing to rely on natural gas. These CH4 emissions reductions are greater than the required CO2 reductions under the same policy. Alternatively, expanding carbon-free sources more rapidly could meet the 2030 target without reductions in natural gas leakage rates. The results provide insight on an important policy choice in regions and sectors using natural gas, between emphasizing a natural gas supply chain clean-up effort or an accelerated transition toward carbon-free energy sources

Timelines for mitigating the methane impacts of using natural gas for carbon dioxide abatement

Reducing carbon dioxide (CO _2 ) emissions through a reliance on natural gas can create a hidden commitment to methane (CH _4 ) leakage mitigation. While the quantity of CH _4 leakage from natural gas has been studied extensively, the magnitude and timing of the CH _4 mitigation required to meet climate policy goals is less well understood. Here we address this topic by examining the case of US electricity under a range of baseline natural gas leakage rate estimates and emissions equivalency metrics for converting CH _4 to CO _2 -equivalent emissions. We find that CH _4 emissions from the power sector would need to be reduced by 30%–90% from today’s levels by 2030 in order to meet a CO _2 -equivalent climate policy target while continuing to rely on natural gas. These CH _4 emissions reductions are greater than the required CO _2 reductions under the same policy. Alternatively, expanding carbon-free sources more rapidly could meet the 2030 target without reductions in natural gas leakage rates. The results provide insight on an important policy choice in regions and sectors using natural gas, between emphasizing a natural gas supply chain clean-up effort or an accelerated transition toward carbon-free energy sources

Toward evaluating the effect of technology choices on linkages between sustainable development goals

Summary: Linkages between the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) have sparked research interest because a better understanding of SDG co-benefits may enable faster progress on multiple sustainability fronts. However, SDG linkages are typically analyzed without considering the technologies used to implement a primary SDG, which may have secondary effects on other SDGs. Here, we outline an approach to study this problem by connecting the industries and services required to produce a technology to the United Nations SDG indicator framework, using SDG7 and four energy technologies as an illustrative case. We find that all technologies in our set involve potential co-benefits with SDGs 1, 8–10, 12–13, and 17, and trade-offs with SDGs 6, 8–9, 11–12, and 14–15. Deployment services primarily induce co-benefits; manufacturing has mixed impacts. Our work sheds light on the technology characteristics (e.g., scale, high- or low-tech) that influence linkages while also pointing to SDG-relevant characteristics not captured by UN indicators

Sources of Cost Overrun in Nuclear Power Plant Construction Call for a New Approach to Engineering Design

© 2020 Elsevier Inc. Nuclear plant costs in the US have repeatedly exceeded projections. Here, we use data covering 5 decades and bottom-up cost modeling to identify the mechanisms behind this divergence. We observe that nth-of-a-kind plants have been more, not less, expensive than first-of-a-kind plants. “Soft” factors external to standardized reactor hardware, such as labor supervision, contributed over half of the cost rise from 1976 to 1987. Relatedly, containment building costs more than doubled from 1976 to 2017, due only in part to safety regulations. Labor productivity in recent plants is up to 13 times lower than industry expectations. Our results point to a gap between expected and realized costs stemming from low resilience to time- and site-dependent construction conditions. Prospective models suggest reducing commodity usage and automating construction to increase resilience. More generally, rethinking engineering design to relate design variables to cost change mechanisms could help deliver real-world cost reductions for technologies with demanding construction requirements. Nuclear power plants provide roughly half of the low-carbon electricity in the US. However, projections of nuclear plant costs have repeatedly failed to predict the cost overruns observed since the 1960s. We study the mechanisms that have contributed to the rise in nuclear construction costs over the past 5 decades to understand the divergence between expected and realized costs. We find that nth-of-a-kind plants in the US have been more expensive than first-of-a-kind plants, with “soft” factors external to reactor hardware contributing over half of the cost increase between 1976 and 1987. Costs of the reactor containment building more than doubled, primarily due to declining on-site labor productivity. Productivity in recent US plants is up to 13 times lower than industry expectations. A prospective analysis of the containment building suggests that improved materials and automation could increase the resilience of nuclear construction costs to variable conditions. We study nuclear plant costs in the US over the past 5 decades to understand the mechanisms that contributed to cost escalation and the repeated underestimation of construction cost. We show that declining labor productivity and “soft” costs were leading contributors. Counter to expectation, nth-of-a-kind plants have been more expensive than first-of-a-kind plants. Our prospective analysis of the containment building suggests that the cost resilience of nuclear construction could be increased through improved materials and automation

Effects of emissions caps on the costs and feasibility of low-carbon hydrogen in the European ammonia industry

The European ammonia industry emits 36 million tons of carbon dioxide annually, primarily from steam methane reforming (SMR) hydrogen production. These emissions can be mitigated by producing hydrogen via water electrolysis using dedicated renewables with grid backup. This study investigates the impact of decarbonization targets for hydrogen synthesis on the economic viability and technical feasibility of retrofitting existing European ammonia plants for on-site, semi-islanded electrolytic hydrogen production. Results show that electrolytic hydrogen cuts emissions, on average, by 85% (36%-100% based on grid price and carbon intensity), even without enforcing emission limits. However, an optimal lifespan average well-to-gate emission cap of 1 kg carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e)/kg H2 leads to a 95% reduction (92%-100%) while maintaining cost-competitiveness with SMR in renewable-rich regions (mean levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) of 4.1 euro/kg H2). Conversely, a 100% emissions reduction target dramatically increases costs (mean LCOH: 6.3 euro/kg H2) and land area for renewables installations, likely hindering the transition to electrolytic hydrogen in regions with poor renewables and limited land. Increasing plant flexibility effectively reduces costs, particularly in off-grid plants (mean reduction: 32%). This work guides policymakers in defining cost-effective decarbonization targets and identifying region-based strategies to support an electrolytic hydrogen-fed ammonia industry.</p

Technology Improvement and Emissions Reductions as Mutually Reinforcing Efforts: Observations from the Global Development of Solar and Wind Energy

Mitigating climate change is unavoidably linked to developing affordable low-carbon energy technologies that can be adopted around the world. In this report, we describe the evolution of solar and wind energy in recent decades, and the potential for future expansion under nations’ voluntary commitments in advance of the 2015 Paris climate negotiations. Solar and wind energy costs have dropped rapidly over the past few decades, and commitments made in international climate negotiations offer an opportunity to support the technological innovation needed to achieve a self-sustaining, virtuous cycle of emissions reductions and low-carbon technology development by 2030. If countries emphasize renewables expansion, solar and wind capacity could grow by factors of 4.9 and 2.7 respectively between the present day and 2030. Based on future technology development scenarios, past trends, and technology cost floors, we estimate these commitments for renewables expansion could achieve a cost reduction of up to 50% for solar (PV) and up to 25% for wind. Forecasts are inherently uncertain, but even under the more modest cost reduction scenarios, the costs of these technologies decrease over time.MIT International Policy La