ESA's Ice Sheets CCI: validation and inter-comparison of surface elevation changes derived from laser and radar altimetry over Jakobshavn Isbræ, Greenland – Round Robin results

In order to increase the understanding of the changing climate, the European Space Agency has launched the Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI), a program which joins scientists and space agencies into 13 projects either affecting or affected by the concurrent changes. This work is part of the Ice Sheets CCI and four parameters are to be determined for the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS), each resulting in a dataset made available to the public: Surface Elevation Changes (SEC), surface velocities, grounding line locations, and calving front locations. All CCI projects have completed a so-called Round Robin exercise in which the scientific community was asked to provide their best estimate of the sought parameters as well as a feedback sheet describing their work. By inter-comparing and validating the results, obtained from research institutions world-wide, it is possible to develop the most optimal method for determining each parameter. This work describes the SEC Round Robin and the subsequent conclusions leading to the creation of a method for determining GrIS SEC values. The participants used either Envisat radar or ICESat laser altimetry over Jakobshavn Isbræ drainage basin, and the submissions led to inter-comparisons of radar vs. altimetry as well as cross-over vs. repeat-track analyses. Due to the high accuracy of the former and the high spatial resolution of the latter, a method, which combines the two techniques will provide the most accurate SEC estimates. The data supporting the final GrIS analysis stem from the radar altimeters on-board Envisat, ERS-1 and ERS-2. The accuracy of laser data exceeds that of radar altimetry; the Round Robin analysis has, however, proven the latter equally capable of dealing with surface topography thereby making such data applicable in SEC analyses extending all the way from the interior ice sheet to margin regions. This shows good potential for a~future inclusion of ESA CryoSat-2 and Sentinel-3 radar data in the analysis, and thus for obtaining reliable SEC estimates throughout the entire GrIS

ESA ice sheet CCI: derivation of the optimal method for surface elevation change detection of the Greenland ice sheet - round robin results

For more than two decades, radar altimetry missions have provided continuous elevation estimates of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). Here, we propose a method for using such data to estimate ice-sheet-wide surface elevation changes (SECs). The final data set will be based on observations acquired from the European Space Agency’s Environmental Satellite (ENVISAT), European Remote Sensing (ERS)-1 and -2, CryoSat-2, and, in the longer term, Sentinel-3 satellites. In order to find the best-performing method, an intercomparison exercise has been carried out in which the scientific community was asked to provide their best SEC estimates as well as feedback sheets describing the applied method. Due to the hitherto few radar-based SEC analyses as well as the higher accuracy of laser data, the participants were asked to use either ENVISAT radar or ICESat (Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite) laser altimetry over the Jakobshavn Isbræ drainage basin. The submissions were validated against airborne laser-scanner data, and intercomparisons were carried out to analyse the potential of the applied methods and to find whether the two altimeters were capable of resolving the same signal. The analyses found great potential of the applied repeat-track and cross-over techniques, and, for the first time over Greenland, that repeat-track analyses from radar altimetry agreed well with laser data. Since topography-related errors can be neglected in cross-over analyses, it is expected that the most accurate, ice-sheet-wide SEC estimates are obtained by combining the cross-over and repeat-track techniques. It is thus possible to exploit the high accuracy of the former and the large spatial data coverage of the latter. Based on CryoSat’s different operation modes, and the increased spatial and temporal data coverage, this shows good potential for a future inclusion of CryoSat-2 and Sentinel-3 data to continuously obtain accurate SEC estimates both in the interior and margin ice sheet

Sea-level change in the Dutch Wadden Sea

Rising sea levels due to climate change can have severe consequences for coastal populations and ecosystems all around the world. Understanding and projecting sea-level rise is especially important for low-lying countries such as the Netherlands. It is of specific interest for vulnerable ecological and morphodynamic regions, such as the Wadden Sea UNESCO World Heritage region. Here we provide an overview of sea-level projections for the 21st century for the Wadden Sea region and a condensed review of the scientific data, understanding and uncertainties underpinning the projections. The sea-level projections are formulated in the framework of the geological history of the Wadden Sea region and are based on the regional sea-level projections published in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5). These IPCC AR5 projections are compared against updates derived from more recent literature and evaluated for the Wadden Sea region. The projections are further put into perspective by including interannual variability based on long-term tide-gauge records from observing stations at Den Helder and Delfzijl. We consider three climate scenarios, following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), as defined in IPCC AR5: the RCP2.6 scenario assumes that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions decline after 2020; the RCP4.5 scenario assumes that GHG emissions peak at 2040 and decline thereafter; and the RCP8.5 scenario represents a continued rise of GHG emissions throughout the 21st century. For RCP8.5, we also evaluate several scenarios from recent literature where the mass loss in Antarctica accelerates at rates exceeding those presented in IPCC AR5. For the Dutch Wadden Sea, the IPCC AR5-based projected sea-level rise is 0.07±0.06m for the RCP4.5 scenario for the period 2018–30 (uncertainties representing 5–95%), with the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios projecting 0.01m less and more, respectively. The projected rates of sea-level change in 2030 range between 2.6mma−1 for the 5th percentile of the RCP2.6 scenario to 9.1mma−1 for the 95th percentile of the RCP8.5 scenario. For the period 2018–50, the differences between the scenarios increase, with projected changes of 0.16±0.12m for RCP2.6, 0.19±0.11m for RCP4.5 and 0.23±0.12m for RCP8.5. The accompanying rates of change range between 2.3 and 12.4mma−1 in 2050. The differences between the scenarios amplify for the 2018–2100 period, with projected total changes of 0.41±0.25m for RCP2.6, 0.52±0.27m for RCP4.5 and 0.76±0.36m for RCP8.5. The projections for the RCP8.5 scenario are larger than the high-end projections presented in the 2008 Delta Commission Report (0.74m for 1990–2100) when the differences in time period are considered. The sea-level change rates range from 2.2 to 18.3mma−1 for the year 2100. We also assess the effect of accelerated ice mass loss on the sea-level projections under the RCP8.5 scenario, as recent literature suggests that there may be a larger contribution from Antarctica than presented in IPCC AR5 (potentially exceeding 1m in 2100). Changes in episodic extreme events, such as storm surges, and periodic (tidal) contributions on (sub-)daily timescales, have not been included in these sea-level projections. However, the potential impacts of these processes on sea-level change rates have been assessed in the report

Sea-level change in the Dutch Wadden Sea

Rising sea levels due to climate change can have severe consequences for coastal populations and ecosystems all around the world. Understanding and projecting sea-level rise is especially important for low-lying countries such as the Netherlands. It is of specific interest for vulnerable ecological and morphodynamic regions, such as the Wadden Sea UNESCO World Heritage region.Here we provide an overview of sea-level projections for the 21st century for the Wadden Sea region and a condensed review of the scientific data, understanding and uncertainties underpinning the projections. The sea-level projections are formulated in the framework of the geological history of the Wadden Sea region and are based on the regional sea-level projections published in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5). These IPCC AR5 projections are compared against updates derived from more recent literature and evaluated for the Wadden Sea region. The projections are further put into perspective by including interannual variability based on long-term tide-gauge records from observing stations at Den Helder and Delfzijl.We consider three climate scenarios, following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), as defined in IPCC AR5: the RCP2.6 scenario assumes that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions decline after 2020; the RCP4.5 scenario assumes that GHG emissions peak at 2040 and decline thereafter; and the RCP8.5 scenario represents a continued rise of GHG emissions throughout the 21st century. For RCP8.5, we also evaluate several scenarios from recent literature where the mass loss in Antarctica accelerates at rates exceeding those presented in IPCC AR5.For the Dutch Wadden Sea, the IPCC AR5-based projected sea-level rise is 0.07±0.06m for the RCP4.5 scenario for the period 2018–30 (uncertainties representing 5–95%), with the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios projecting 0.01m less and more, respectively. The projected rates of sea-level change in 2030 range between 2.6mma⁻¹ for the 5th percentile of the RCP2.6 scenario to 9.1mma⁻¹ for the 95th percentile of the RCP8.5 scenario. For the period 2018–50, the differences between the scenarios increase, with projected changes of 0.16±0.12m for RCP2.6, 0.19±0.11m for RCP4.5 and 0.23±0.12m for RCP8.5. The accompanying rates of change range between 2.3 and 12.4mma⁻¹ in 2050. The differences between the scenarios amplify for the 2018–2100 period, with projected total changes of 0.41±0.25m for RCP2.6, 0.52±0.27m for RCP4.5 and 0.76±0.36m for RCP8.5. The projections for the RCP8.5 scenario are larger than the high-end projections presented in the 2008 Delta Commission Report (0.74m for 1990–2100) when the differences in time period are considered. The sea-level change rates range from 2.2 to 18.3mma−1 for the year 2100.We also assess the effect of accelerated ice mass loss on the sea-level projections under the RCP8.5 scenario, as recent literature suggests that there may be a larger contribution from Antarctica than presented in IPCC AR5 (potentially exceeding 1m in 2100). Changes in episodic extreme events, such as storm surges, and periodic (tidal) contributions on (sub-)daily timescales, have not been included in these sea-level projections. However, the potential impacts of these processes on sea-level change rates have been assessed in the report

Sea-Level Change in the Dutch Wadden Sea

Rising sea levels due to climate change can have severe consequences for coastal populations and ecosystems all around the world. Understanding and projecting sea-level rise is especially important for low-lying countries such as the Netherlands. It is of specific interest for vulnerable ecological and morphodynamic regions, such as the Wadden Sea UNESCO World Heritage region. Here we provide an overview of sea-level projections for the 21st century for the Wadden Sea region and a condensed review of the scientific data, understanding and uncertainties underpinning the projections. The sea-level projections are formulated in the framework of the geological history of the Wadden Sea region and are based on the regional sea-level projections published in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5). These IPCC AR5 projections are compared against updates derived from more recent literature and evaluated for the Wadden Sea region. The projections are further put into perspective by including interannual variability based on long-Term tide-gauge records from observing stations at Den Helder and Delfzijl. We consider three climate scenarios, following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), as defined in IPCC AR5: The RCP2.6 scenario assumes that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions decline after 2020; the RCP4.5 scenario assumes that GHG emissions peak at 2040 and decline thereafter; and the RCP8.5 scenario represents a continued rise of GHG emissions throughout the 21st century. For RCP8.5, we also evaluate several scenarios from recent literature where the mass loss in Antarctica accelerates at rates exceeding those presented in IPCC AR5. For the Dutch Wadden Sea, the IPCC AR5-based projected sea-level rise is 0.07±0.06m for the RCP4.5 scenario for the period 2018-30 (uncertainties representing 5-95%), with the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios projecting 0.01m less and more, respectively. The projected rates of sea-level change in 2030 range between 2.6mma-1 for the 5th percentile of the RCP2.6 scenario to 9.1mma-1 for the 95th percentile of the RCP8.5 scenario. For the period 2018-50, the differences between the scenarios increase, with projected changes of 0.16±0.12m for RCP2.6, 0.19±0.11m for RCP4.5 and 0.23±0.12m for RCP8.5. The accompanying rates of change range between 2.3 and 12.4mma-1 in 2050. The differences between the scenarios amplify for the 2018-2100 period, with projected total changes of 0.41±0.25m for RCP2.6, 0.52±0.27m for RCP4.5 and 0.76±0.36m for RCP8.5. The projections for the RCP8.5 scenario are larger than the high-end projections presented in the 2008 Delta Commission Report (0.74m for 1990-2100) when the differences in time period are considered. The sea-level change rates range from 2.2 to 18.3mma-1 for the year 2100. We also assess the effect of accelerated ice mass loss on the sea-level projections under the RCP8.5 scenario, as recent literature suggests that there may be a larger contribution from Antarctica than presented in IPCC AR5 (potentially exceeding 1m in 2100). Changes in episodic extreme events, such as storm surges, and periodic (tidal) contributions on (sub-)daily timescales, have not been included in these sea-level projections. However, the potential impacts of these processes on sea-level change rates have been assessed in the report