52 research outputs found
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Diagnosing, modeling, and testing a multiplicative stochastic Gent-McWilliams parameterization
A depth-independent isotropic Gent-McWilliams (GM) transport parameter [kappa] is diagnosed from an idealized eddy-resolving primitive equation simulation. The optimal depth-independent isotropic GM parameterization is only able to model less than 50% of the diagnosed total tendency of temperature induced by unresolved mesoscale eddies. A spatio-temporal stochastic model of the GM parameter is developed based on the diagnosed values; the graphical lasso is used to estimate the spatial correlation structure. The stochastic model is used as a stochastic parameterization in low-resolution model simulations. The low-resolution stochastic simulation does a poor job of reproducing the temporal mean of large-scale temperature. Deterministic GM parameterizations and multiplicative stochastic GM parameterizations with unrealistic structure result in significantly more-accurate large-scale temperature in the low-resolution simulations. These results suggest that either the depth-independence or the isotropy of the GM parameterization are unrealistic as models of the eddy tracer transport, or that a stochastic GM parameterization should include an additive component.</p
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Multivariate localization functions for strongly coupled data assimilation in the bivariate Lorenz 96 system
Localization is widely used in data assimilation schemes to mitigate the impact of sampling errors on ensemble-derived background error covariance matrices. Strongly coupled data assimilation allows observations in one component of a coupled model to directly impact another component through the inclusion of cross-domain terms in the background error covariance matrix. When different components have disparate dominant spatial scales, localization between model domains must properly account for the multiple length scales at play. In this work, we develop two new multivariate localization functions, one of which is a multivariate extension of the fifth-order piecewise rational Gaspari–Cohn localization function; the within-component localization functions are standard Gaspari–Cohn with different localization radii, while the cross-localization function is newly constructed. The functions produce positive semidefinite localization matrices which are suitable for use in both Kalman filters and variational data assimilation schemes. We compare the performance of our two new multivariate localization functions to two other multivariate localization functions and to the univariate and weakly coupled analogs of all four functions in a simple experiment with the bivariate Lorenz 96 system. In our experiments, the multivariate Gaspari–Cohn function leads to better performance than any of the other multivariate localization functions.
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Beyond univariate calibration: verifying spatial structure in ensembles of forecast fields
Most available verification metrics for ensemble forecasts focus on univariate quantities. That is, they assess whether the ensemble provides an adequate representation of the forecast uncertainty about the quantity of interest at a particular location and time. For spatially indexed ensemble forecasts, however, it is also important that forecast fields reproduce the spatial structure of the observed field and represent the uncertainty about spatial properties such as the size of the area for which heavy precipitation, high winds, critical fire weather conditions, etc., are expected. In this article we study the properties of the fraction of threshold exceedance (FTE) histogram, a new diagnostic tool designed for spatially indexed ensemble forecast fields. Defined as the fraction of grid points where a prescribed threshold is exceeded, the FTE is calculated for the verification field and separately for each ensemble member. It yields a projection of a – possibly high-dimensional – multivariate quantity onto a univariate quantity that can be studied with standard tools like verification rank histograms. This projection is appealing since it reflects a spatial property that is intuitive and directly relevant in applications, though it is not obvious whether the FTE is sufficiently sensitive to misrepresentation of spatial structure in the ensemble. In a comprehensive simulation study we find that departures from uniformity of the FTE histograms can indeed be related to forecast ensembles with biased spatial variability and that these histograms detect shortcomings in the spatial structure of ensemble forecast fields that are not obvious by eye. For demonstration, FTE histograms are applied in the context of spatially downscaled ensemble precipitation forecast fields from NOAA's Global Ensemble Forecast System.
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A space–time Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework for projection of seasonal maximum streamflow
Timely projections of seasonal streamflow extremes can be useful for the early implementation of annual flood risk adaptation strategies. However, predicting seasonal extremes is challenging, particularly under nonstationary conditions and if extremes are correlated in space. The goal of this study is to implement a space–time model for the projection of seasonal streamflow extremes that considers the nonstationarity (interannual variability) and spatiotemporal dependence of high flows. We develop a space–time model to project seasonal streamflow extremes for several lead times up to 2 months, using a Bayesian hierarchical modeling (BHM) framework. This model is based on the assumption that streamflow extremes (3 d maxima) at a set of gauge locations are realizations of a Gaussian elliptical copula and generalized extreme value (GEV) margins with nonstationary parameters. These parameters are modeled as a linear function of suitable covariates describing the previous season selected using the deviance information criterion (DIC). Finally, the copula is used to generate streamflow ensembles, which capture spatiotemporal variability and uncertainty. We apply this modeling framework to predict 3 d maximum streamflow in spring (May–June) at seven gauges in the Upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) with 0- to 2-month lead time. In this basin, almost all extremes that cause severe flooding occur in spring as a result of snowmelt and precipitation. Therefore, we use regional mean snow water equivalent and temperature from the preceding winter season as well as indices of large-scale climate teleconnections – El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation – as potential covariates for 3 d spring maximum streamflow. Our model evaluation, which is based on the comparison of different model versions and the energy skill score, indicates that the model can capture the space–time variability in extreme streamflow well and that model skill increases with decreasing lead time. We also find that the use of climate variables slightly enhances skill relative to using only snow information. Median projections and their uncertainties are consistent with observations, thanks to the representation of spatial dependencies through covariates in the margins and a Gaussian copula. This spatiotemporal modeling framework helps in the planning of seasonal adaptation and preparedness measures as predictions of extreme spring streamflows become available 2 months before actual flood occurrence.</p
Nonstationary modeling for multivariate spatial processes
AbstractWe derive a class of matrix valued covariance functions where the direct and cross-covariance functions are Matérn. The parameters of the Matérn class are allowed to vary with location, yielding local variances, local ranges, local geometric anisotropies and local smoothnesses. We discuss inclusion of a nonconstant cross-correlation coefficient and a valid approximation. Estimation utilizes kernel smoothed empirical covariance matrices and a locally weighted minimum Frobenius distance that yields local parameter estimates at any location. We derive the asymptotic mean squared error of our kernel smoother and discuss the case when multiple field realizations are available. Finally, the model is illustrated on two datasets, one a synthetic bivariate one-dimensional spatial process, and the second a set of temperature and precipitation model output from a regional climate model
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