Risk Assessment in Juvenile and Young Adult Offenders: Predictive Validity of the SAVRY and SAPROF-YV

Most juvenile risk assessment tools heavily rely on a risk-focused approach. Less attention has been devoted to protective factors. This study examines the predictive validity of protective factors in addition to risk factors, and developmental differences in psychometric properties of juvenile risk assessment. For a national Dutch sample of 354 juvenile and young adult offenders (16-26 years) risk and protective factors were retrospectively assessed at discharge from seven juvenile justice institutions, using the Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY) and Structured Assessment of Protective Factors for violence risk – Youth Version (SAPROF-YV). Results show moderate validity for both tools predicting general, violent, and nonviolent offending at different follow-up times. The SAPROF-YV provided incremental predictive validity over the SAVRY, and predictive validity was stronger for younger offenders. Evidently both the SAVRY and SAPROF-YV seem valid tools for the assessment of recidivism risk in juvenile and young adult offenders. Results highlight the importance of protective factors, especially in juvenile offenders, emphasizing the need for a balanced risk assessment

Predicting youth reoffending after incarceration: added value of protective factors and heart rate variability

This study examined a biopsychosocial approach on risk assessment in a clinical sample of youth offenders. In search of enhancing the validity of prediction of recidivism through risk factors alone, the added value of protective and neurobiological factors was measured. In 209 male youth offenders (age 15-24), risk and protective factors were assessed with the Structured Assessment of Violence in Youth (SAVRY) and the Structured Assessment of Protective Factors for violence risk-Youth Version (SAPROF-YV). Autonomic nervous system (re)activity was assessed, and cortisol and testosterone levels were measured in saliva. Recidivism data were obtained from official criminal records. As expected, risk factors alone provided moderate predictive validity for general and violent recidivism. Incorporating protective factors and Heart Rate Variability (HRV) reactivity significantly improved prediction models. Risk assessment may gain by adopting a broader, biopsychosocial perspective. Including neurobiology and protective factors in risk assessment could improve release decision-making, offer guidance for better tailored interventions, and enhance chances of successful community reintegration

Sex differences in psychiatric comorbidity and clinical presentation in youths with conduct disorder

Background: Conduct disorder (CD) rarely occurs alone but is typically accompanied by comorbid psychiatric disorders, which complicates the clinical presentation and treatment of affected youths. The aim of this study was to investigate sex differences in comorbidity pattern in CD and to systematically explore the ‘gender paradox’ and ‘delayed-onset pathway’ hypotheses of female CD. Methods: As part of the FemNAT-CD multisite study, semistructured clinical interviews and rating scales were used to perform a comprehensive phenotypic characterization of 454 girls and 295 boys with CD (9–18 years), compared to 864 sex- and age-matched typically developing controls. Results: Girls with CD exhibited higher rates of current major depression, anxiety disorders, post-traumatic stress disorder and borderline personality disorder, whereas boys with CD had higher rates of current attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder. In line with the ‘gender paradox’ hypothesis, relative to boys, girls with CD showed significantly more lifetime psychiatric comorbidities (incl. Alcohol Use Disorder), which were accompanied by more severe CD symptoms. Female and male youths with CD also differed significantly in their CD symptom profiles and distribution of age-of-onset subtypes of CD (i.e. fewer girls with childhood-onset CD). In line with the ‘delayed-onset pathway’ hypothesis, girls with adolescent-onset CD showed similar levels of dimensional psychopathology like boys with childhood-onset CD, while boys with adolescent-onset CD had the lowest levels of internalizing psychopathology. Conclusions: Within the largest study of CD in girls performed to date, we found compelling evidence for sex differences in comorbidity patterns and clinical presentation of CD. Our findings further support aspects of the ‘gender paradox’ and ‘delayed-onset pathway’ hypotheses by showing that girls with CD had higher rates of comorbid lifetime mental disorders and functional impairments, and they usually developed CD during adolescence. These novel data on sex-specific clinical profiles of CD will be critical in informing intervention and prevention programmes