Accounting for seasonal patterns in syndromic surveillance data for outbreak detection

BACKGROUND: Syndromic surveillance (SS) can potentially contribute to outbreak detection capability by providing timely, novel data sources. One SS challenge is that some syndrome counts vary with season in a manner that is not identical from year to year. Our goal is to evaluate the impact of inconsistent seasonal effects on performance assessments (false and true positive rates) in the context of detecting anomalous counts in data that exhibit seasonal variation. METHODS: To evaluate the impact of inconsistent seasonal effects, we injected synthetic outbreaks into real data and into data simulated from each of two models fit to the same real data. Using real respiratory syndrome counts collected in an emergency department from 2/1/94–5/31/03, we varied the length of training data from one to eight years, applied a sequential test to the forecast errors arising from each of eight forecasting methods, and evaluated their detection probabilities (DP) on the basis of 1000 injected synthetic outbreaks. We did the same for each of two corresponding simulated data sets. The less realistic, nonhierarchical model's simulated data set assumed that "one season fits all," meaning that each year's seasonal peak has the same onset, duration, and magnitude. The more realistic simulated data set used a hierarchical model to capture violation of the "one season fits all" assumption. RESULTS: This experiment demonstrated optimistic bias in DP estimates for some of the methods when data simulated from the nonhierarchical model was used for DP estimation, thus suggesting that at least for some real data sets and methods, it is not adequate to assume that "one season fits all." CONCLUSION: For the data we analyze, the "one season fits all " assumption is violated, and DP performance claims based on simulated data that assume "one season fits all," for the forecast methods considered, except for moving average methods, tend to be optimistic. Moving average methods based on relatively short amounts of training data are competitive on all three data sets, but are particularly competitive on the real data and on data from the hierarchical model, which are the two data sets that violate the "one season fits all" assumption

Visual outcomes and complications following posterior iris-claw aphakic intraocular lens implantation combined with penetrating keratoplasty

Abstract Background To evaluate the indication, visual outcome, and complication rate after implantation of a posterior iris-claw aphakic intraocular lens (IOL) during penetrating keratoplasty. Methods This retrospective study comprised 23 eyes (23 patients) without adequate capsule support undergoing posterior iris-claw aphakic IOL implantation (Verisyse™/ Artisan®) during penetrating keratoplasty between 2005 and 2010. Mean follow-up was 18 months (range from 12 to 37 months). Results The IOLs were inserted during an IOL exchange in 17 eyes and as a secondary procedure in six aphakic eyes. Pseudophakic bullous keratopathy with corneal scar after anterior chamber intraocular lens (ACIOL) was the main indication for penetrating keratoplasty in 16 eyes (69.6 %). The final corrected distance visual acuity (CDVA) in logMAR (mean 1.0 ± 0.46) improved significantly (p < 0.05) compared to the preoperative CDVA (mean 1.8± 0.73). Twenty eyes (86.9 %) had a final visual acuity in logMAR better than the pre-operative CDVA. The mean postoperative IOP 16.3 mmHg±4.0 was not significantly (p > 0.05) higher compared to the preoperative IOP 15.6 mmHg±5.1. Complications included slight temporary pupil ovalization in three eyes (13.0 %) and iris-claw IOL sublocation in three eyes (13.0 %); all IOLs could be easily repositioned. Cystoid macular edema occured in one eye (4.3 %) 8 weeks after primary surgery. All grafts remained clear without any sign of graft rejection. Conclusions Retropupillar iris-claw IOL during penetrating keratoplasty provides good visual outcomes with a favorable complication rate, and can be used for a wide range of indications in eyes without adequate capsule support