"Last-Mile" preparation for a potential disaster

Extreme natural events, like e.g. tsunamis or earthquakes, regularly lead to catastrophes with dramatic consequences. In recent years natural disasters caused hundreds of thousands of deaths, destruction of infrastructure, disruption of economic activity and loss of billions of dollars worth of property and thus revealed considerable deficits hindering their effective management: Needs for stakeholders, decision-makers as well as for persons concerned include systematic risk identification and evaluation, a way to assess countermeasures, awareness raising and decision support systems to be employed before, during and after crisis situations. The overall goal of this study focuses on interdisciplinary integration of various scientific disciplines to contribute to a tsunami early warning information system. In comparison to most studies our focus is on high-end geometric and thematic analysis to meet the requirements of small-scale, heterogeneous and complex coastal urban systems. Data, methods and results from engineering, remote sensing and social sciences are interlinked and provide comprehensive information for disaster risk assessment, management and reduction. In detail, we combine inundation modeling, urban morphology analysis, population assessment, socio-economic analysis of the population and evacuation modeling. The interdisciplinary results eventually lead to recommendations for mitigation strategies in the fields of spatial planning or coping capacity

Hydroxyl radicals in the tropical troposphere over the Suriname rainforest: airborne measurements

Direct measurements of OH and HO<sub>2</sub> over a tropical rainforest were made for the first time during the GABRIEL campaign in October 2005, deploying the custom-built HORUS instrument (HydrOxyl Radical measurement Unit based on fluorescence Spectroscopy), adapted to fly in a Learjet wingpod. Biogenic hydrocarbon emissions were expected to strongly reduce the OH and HO<sub>2</sub> mixing ratios as the air is transported from the ocean over the forest. However, surprisingly high mixing ratios of both OH and HO<sub>2</sub> were encountered in the boundary layer over the rainforest. <br><br> The HORUS instrumentation and calibration methods are described in detail and the measurement results obtained are discussed. The extensive dataset collected during GABRIEL, including measurements of many other trace gases and photolysis frequencies, has been used to quantify the main sources and sinks of OH. Comparison of these measurement-derived formation and loss rates of OH indicates strong previously overlooked recycling of OH in the boundary layer over the tropical rainforest, occurring in chorus with isoprene emission

Characterizing correlations of flow oscillations at bottlenecks

"Oscillations" occur in quite different kinds of many-particle-systems when two groups of particles with different directions of motion meet or intersect at a certain spot. We present a model of pedestrian motion that is able to reproduce oscillations with different characteristics. The Wald-Wolfowitz test and Gillis' correlated random walk are shown to hold observables that can be used to characterize different kinds of oscillations

Hydroxyl radicals in the tropical troposphere over the Suriname rainforest: airborne measurements

Direct measurements of OH and HO<sub>2</sub> over a tropical rainforest were made for the first time during the GABRIEL campaign in October 2005, deploying the custom-built HORUS instrument (HydrOxyl Radical measurement Unit based on fluorescence Spectroscopy), adapted to fly in a Learjet wingpod. Biogenic hydrocarbon emissions were expected to strongly reduce the OH and HO<sub>2</sub> mixing ratios as the air is transported from the ocean over the forest. However, surprisingly high mixing ratios of both OH and HO<sub>2</sub> were encountered in the boundary layer over the rainforest. <br><br> The HORUS instrumentation and calibration methods are described in detail and the measurement results obtained are discussed. The extensive dataset collected during GABRIEL, including measurements of many other trace gases and photolysis frequencies, has been used to quantify the main sources and sinks of OH. Comparison of these measurement-derived formation and loss rates of OH indicates strong previously overlooked recycling of OH in the boundary layer over the tropical rainforest, occurring in chorus with isoprene emission

Ozone production and trace gas correlations during the June 2000 MINATROC intensive measurement campaign at Mt. Cimone

An intensive measurement campaign was performed in June 2000 at the Mt. Cimone station (44°11' N-10°42' E, 2165 m asl, the highest mountain in the northern Italian Apennines) to study photochemical ozone production in the lower free troposphere. In general, average mixing ratios of important trace gases were not very high (121 ± 20 ppbv CO, 0.284 ± 0.220 ppbv NOx, 1.15 ± 0.8 ppbv NOy, 58 ± 9 ppbv O₃), which indicates a small contribution by local pollution. Those trace gas levels are representative of continental background air, which is further supported by the analysis of VOCs (e.g.: C₂H₆ = (905 ± 200) pptv, C₃H₈ = (268 ±110) pptv, C₂H₂ = (201 ± 102) pptv, C₅H₈ = (111 ± 124) pptv, benzene = (65 ± 33) pptv). Furthermore, significant diurnal variations for a number of trace gases (O₃, CO, NOx, NOy, HCHO) indicate the presence of free tropospheric airmasses at nighttime as a consequence of local catabatic winds. Average mid-day peroxy radical concentrations at Mt. Cimone are of the order of 30 pptv. At mean NO concentrations of the order of 40 pptv this gives rise to significant in situ net O₃ production of 0.1-0.3 ppbv/hr. The importance of O₃production is supported by correlations between O₃, CO, NOz, and HCHO, and between HCHO, CO and NOy

"Last-Mile" preparation for a potential disaster - Interdisciplinary approach towards tsunami early warning and an evacuation information system for the coastal city of Padang, Indonesia

Extreme natural events, like e.g. tsunamis or earthquakes, regularly lead to catastrophes with dramatic consequences. In recent years natural disasters caused hundreds of thousands of deaths, destruction of infrastructure, disruption of economic activity and loss of billions of dollars worth of property and thus revealed considerable deficits hindering their effective management: Needs for stakeholders, decision-makers as well as for persons concerned include systematic risk identification and evaluation, a way to assess countermeasures, awareness raising and decision support systems to be employed before, during and after crisis situations. The overall goal of this study focuses on interdisciplinary integration of various scientific disciplines to contribute to a tsunami early warning information system. In comparison to most studies our focus is on high-end geometric and thematic analysis to meet the requirements of smallscale, heterogeneous and complex coastal urban systems. Data, methods and results from engineering, remote sensing and social sciences are interlinked and provide comprehensive information for disaster risk assessment, management and reduction. In detail, we combine inundation modeling, urban morphology analysis, population assessment, socioeconomic analysis of the population and evacuation modeling. The interdisciplinary results eventually lead to recommendations for mitigation strategies in the fields of spatial planning or coping capacity.DFG/03G0666A-

Properties of odd nuclei and the impact of time-odd mean fields: A systematic Skyrme-Hartree-Fock analysis

We present a systematic analysis of the description of odd nuclei by the Skyrme-Hartree-Fock approach augmented with pairing in BCS approximation and blocking of the odd nucleon. Current and spin densities in the Skyrme functional produce time-odd mean fields (TOMF) for odd nuclei. Their effect on basic properties (binding energies, odd-even staggering, separation energies and spectra) is investigated for the three Skyrme parameterizations SkI3, SLy6, and SV-bas. About 1300 spherical and axially-deformed odd nuclei with 16 < Z < 92 are considered. The calculations demonstrate that the TOMF effect is generally small, although not fully negligible. The influence of the Skyrme parameterization and the consistency of the calculations are much more important. With a proper choice of the parameterization, a good description of binding energies and their differences is obtained, comparable to that for even nuclei. The description of low-energy excitation spectra of odd nuclei is of varying quality depending on the nucleus

Experimental study of pedestrian flow through a bottleneck

In this work the results of a bottleneck experiment with pedestrians are presented in the form of total times, fluxes, specific fluxes, and time gaps. A main aim was to find the dependence of these values from the bottleneck width. The results show a linear decline of the specific flux with increasing width as long as only one person at a time can pass, and a constant value for larger bottleneck widths. Differences between small (one person at a time) and wide bottlenecks (two persons at a time) were also found in the distribution of time gaps.Comment: accepted for publication in J. Stat. Mec

Pedestrian, Crowd, and Evacuation Dynamics

This contribution describes efforts to model the behavior of individual pedestrians and their interactions in crowds, which generate certain kinds of self-organized patterns of motion. Moreover, this article focusses on the dynamics of crowds in panic or evacuation situations, methods to optimize building designs for egress, and factors potentially causing the breakdown of orderly motion.Comment: This is a review paper. For related work see http://www.soms.ethz.c

Towards system optimum: Finding optimal routing strategies in time dependent networks for large-scale evacuation problems

Disaster and evacuation planning crucially depend on good routing strategies. This article compares two different routing strategies in a multi-agent simulation of a large real world evacuation scenario. The first approach approximates a Nash equilibrium where every evacuee adopts an individually optimal routing strategy regardless of what this solution imposes on others. The second approach approximately minimizes the total travel time in the system, which requires to enforce cooperative behavior of the evacuees. Both approaches are analyzed in terms of the global evacuation dynamics and on a detailed geographic level