The european energy system in the context of long term climate policies

The future of the European energy system will strongly depend on a future world energy context that will be dominated by two key challenges. The first challenge corresponds to the necessity of meeting the energy needs of a growing population in Asia, South America and Africa, while some key energy resources – oil and natural gas – enter in a process of increasing scarcity. The second challenge results from the need to rapidly adjust the structure of the world energy system in order to meet the tightening constraints induced by the will to limit anthropogenic climate change. Both issues are clearly strategic for Europe as on the one hand the Union will have to master a growing import dependency from the international markets and neighbouring regions, and as on the other hand it intends to take the lead on the international scene for climate change mitigation policies.Analyses of world long term energy scenario show that the growing scarcity on hydrocarbon supply will not solve the climate change problem as it will rather result in increased coal consumption. Conversely seriously addressing the climate change challenge will imply lower fossil fuel consumption, allow an extension of oil and gas reserves and lead to a real double dividend in terms of sustainability: by climate change mitigation and by reduced tensions and risks of crises on the oil and gas markets. Similarly, ambitious GHG abatement scenarios for Europe will allow limiting the Union's import dependency, which is of course one key element of overall security. Thus, addressing the fossil fuel emissions abatement issue clearly appears as a top priority on the agenda. In this paper we focus on what GHG emissions mitigation policies mean for the European energy system within a global frameworkPROSPECTIVE ; LONG TERM ; CLIMATE POLICY ; EUROPE ; ENERGY SYSTEM

The fundamentals of the future international emissions trading system

The study aims to examine the efficiency aspects of the international carbon market, with a focus on economic impacts on the European energy system, by analyzing the sectoral Marginal Abatements Cost Curves (MACC) and the trading under different global carbon market configurations in 2010 and in 2020. To produce a consistent and realistic assessment we employ sources such as: second NAPs under ETS, GHG National Inventories, EIA data and POLES world energy model to constitute the sectoral base year and 2010, 2020 emission levels in different countries and regions. We then use the market analysis tool ASPEN, which enables to derive supply and demand from sectoral MACCs produced with POLES model, and to evaluate the economic impacts on the carbon market participants. The paper shows in particular that in compliance with 2020 emission reduction targets, the benefits of an extended carbon market gain importance since more than 50% of the reduction target is achieved by ETS sectors and especially electricity sector. Furthermore, the new flexibility margins provided by a longer time-period for the adjustment of investments in new generation capacities compensates for the increasing pressure towards stronger emission reductionsemission trading ; international carbon market ; CO2 price

After The Hague, Bonn and Marrakech : the future international market for emissions permits and the issue of hot air

The main objective of this paper is to assess the Bonn-Marrakech agreement, in terms of abatement cost and emission trading as compared with the initial agreement reached in Kyoto (the Kyoto Protocol).CLIMATE CHANGE ; EMISSIONS TRADING ; INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENT

Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2017: Greenhouse gas emissions and energy balances: Supplementary material to "Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2017: How climate policies improve air quality"

This document complements the Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2017 Report. It provides the detailed GHG and energy balances for the Reference, INDC and B2C scenarios described in the main report. The results displayed in this report have been produced with the global energy & GHG model POLES-JRC.JRC.C.6-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

Assessment of the impact of climate change on residential energy demand for heating and cooling

Climate change in Europe leads to a decrease of residential heating needs and an increase of residential cooling needs. The impact on cooling needs is higher than on heating, in each of the climatic European regions. The overall residential heating and cooling needs are expected to decrease by a quarter by the end of the century, due to climate change. This order of magnitude remains when accounting for a higher insulation level of buildings.JRC.C.6-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

GECO 2015 - GHG and energy balances

This document complements the GECO2015 Report. It provides the detailed GHG and energy balances for the Baseline scenario and for the Global Mitigation scenario described in the main report. The tables provide for each country and region: - the main economic indicators: population, income per capita, share of sectoral value added; - the international energy prices; - emissions per greenhouse gas (GHG) and sector; - a reduced energy balance: primary energy production, net trade, primary energy demand; - power generation: inputs , production, capacity; - final consumption per sector and per fuel.JRC.J.1-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

Après La Haye, Bonn et Marrakech : le futur marché international des permis de droits d'émissions et la question de l'air chaud

L'objectif principal de ce papier est d'évaluer quantitativement l'accord Bonn-Marrakech, en termes de coûts de réductions et de marché d'émissions, en comparaison avec l'accord initial de Kyoto.MARCHE DE PERMIS ; CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE ; ACCORD INTERNATIONAL

Politiques climatiques en Europe et mise en oeuvre du système de quotas d'émission négociable

Cette étude développe une analyse de l'articulation du marché européen des quotas pour les industries lourdes et le secteur électrique avec la régulation des émissions des autres secteurs. En particulier il est supposé qu'une taxation du carbone est mise en oeuvre dans les transports et le bâtiment. L'interaction entre taxe et prix du marché est simulée en supposant que les Etats achètent sur le marché les réductions d'émission nécessaires lorsque la taxe est insuffisante.CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE ; PERMIS NEGOCIABLE

Mitigation strategies and energy technology learning: an assessment with the POLES model

International audienceThis paper explores various dimensions of the learning process for low-carbon technologies under different mitigation scenarios. It uses the POLES model, which addresses learning as an endogenous phenomenon with learning curves, and a set of scenarios developed as part of the AMPERE project. It represents an analytical effort to understand the learning patterns of energy technologies in various contexts and tries to disentangle the different dimensions of the relation between these patterns and the deployment process. One result is, surprisingly, that apparent learning may be slower in mitigation scenarios with accelerated technology deployment when using two-factor learning curves. Second, the R&D analysis clearly shows that reductions in R&D budgets have significant impacts on long term technology costs. Third, solar technology which is more constrained by floor costs in the model benefits more from major technological breakthroughs than wind energy. Finally, ambitious stabilization targets can be met with limited cost increases in the electricity sector, thanks to the impact of learning effects on the improvement in technology costs and performances

Impact of low oil prices on the EU economy

The report describes the importance of oil for the EU economy and analyses the potential economic effects that current low oil prices since mid-2014 may have in the EU28 economy. Further it assesses how the current oil price decrease may evolve up to 2020 and the consequences for global oil consumption. The analysis shows that a decrease of the oil price from US$100 to US$50 may lead to a GDP gain of about 0.7%, both on a global level and in the EU28, driven by private consumption and investment. The global gains are not evenly distributed. Net oil importing countries gain, whereas oil exporting countries lose. The analysis mainly focuses on the EU28 and it shows that the more oil-intensive countries and sectors gain more than the rest of the economy. A 50% decrease of the oil price may generate up to 3 million additional jobs (1.3% of the total labour force). Interestingly, oil-intensive sectors do not necessarily improve their competitiveness vis-à-vis their competitors in other regions, as non-EU producers may be less energy efficient and therefore benefit more from low oil prices.JRC.J.1-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor