BioEarth: Envisioning and developing a new regional earth system model to inform natural and agricultural resource management

As managers of agricultural and natural resources are confronted with uncertainties in global change impacts, the complexities associated with the interconnected cycling of nitrogen, carbon, and water present daunting management challenges. Existing models provide detailed information on specific sub-systems (e.g., land, air, water, and economics). An increasing awareness of the unintended consequences of management decisions resulting from interconnectedness of these sub-systems, however, necessitates coupled regional earth system models (EaSMs). Decision makers’ needs and priorities can be integrated into the model design and development processes to enhance decision-making relevance and “usability” of EaSMs. BioEarth is a research initiative currently under development with a focus on the U.S. Pacific Northwest region that explores the coupling of multiple stand-alone EaSMs to generate usable information for resource decision-making. Direct engagement between model developers and non-academic stakeholders involved in resource and environmental management decisions throughout the model development process is a critical component of this effort. BioEarth utilizes a bottom-up approach for its land surface model that preserves fine spatial-scale sensitivities and lateral hydrologic connectivity, which makes it unique among many regional EaSMs. This paper describes the BioEarth initiative and highlights opportunities and challenges associated with coupling multiple stand-alone models to generate usable information for agricultural and natural resource decision-making

Food for thought: agricultural production in the Columbia River basin under global change.

An increasing global population is expected to double agricultural production demand by the 2050s, resulting in a food security challenge. Water being a primary driver of food production via irrigation, the food security challenge is closely coupled with a water security challenge. Climate change impacts both agricultural production and water resources. Its impacts on potential crop yields, water availability for agriculture (and other competing needs), irrigation water shortages, and the impacts of shortages on agricultural production, will all play a central role in shaping our response to the global food security challenge.Although these are global issues, the impacts are felt at regional/local scales and adaptation alternatives to address these impacts are also implemented at regional/local scales. Therefore, regional-scale models provide the necessary scale appropriate framework to inform decision making. This dissertation focuses on regional scale modeling to characterize the impacts climate change on agricultural production in the Columbia River basin of the Pacific Northwest United States. Agriculture is a vital part of the region’s economy and much of the production is irrigated agriculture. The diversity in crop mix, importance of agriculture to the regional economy, heavy human management of the river system, limited storage that is sensitive to warming, and prevalent vulnerability to water shortages, collectively make the Columbia River basin an ideal test bed for modeling, from an agricultural systems and water resources perspective in the context of climate change.The direct impacts of climate change on crop potential yields, indirect impacts on production through water shortages, and how these impacts evolve over time are explored in this dissertation. Our overarching objectives are to provide a context for regional agricultural resource decision making in the Columbia River basin, and to lay a platform that allows exploration of adaptation alternatives that ensure a thriving agricultural economy and sustainable natural resource use into the future

Modeling environmental change A guide to understanding model results that explore the impacts of climate change on regional environmental systems

This guide focuses on process-based environmental models, particularly those used to model climate change impacts. This type of environmental modeling plays an increasingly important role in understanding the potential implications of environmental changes in the Pacific Northwest as well as world-wide. This guide is designed to assist resource managers, planners, and others who are interested in using modeling results to better understand how environmental change and policy decisions may affect regional ecosystems, agriculture, and natural resource management as well as regional industries and populations

Evapotranspiration of Irrigated Crops under Warming and Elevated Atmospheric CO₂: What Is the Direction of Change?

Future changes in crop evapotranspiration (ETc) are of interest to water management stakeholders. However, long-term projections are complex and merit further investigation due to uncertainties in climate data, differential responses of crops to climate and elevated atmospheric CO2, and adaptive agricultural management. We conducted factor-control simulation experiments using the process-based CropSyst model and investigated the contribution of each of these factors. Five major irrigated crops in the Columbia Basin Project area of the USA Pacific Northwest were selected as a case study and fifteen general circulation models (GCM) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP) were used as the climate forcing. Results indicated a wide range in ETc change, depending on the time frame, crop type, planting dates, and CO2 assumptions. Under the 2090s RCP8.5 scenario, ETc changes were crop-specific: +14.3% (alfalfa), +8.1% (potato), −5.1% (dry bean), −8.1% (corn), and −12.5% (spring wheat). Future elevated CO2 concentrations decreased ETc for all crops while earlier planting increased ETc for all crops except spring wheat. Changes in reference ET (ETo) only partially explains changes in ETc because crop responses are an important modulating factor; therefore, caution must be exercised in interpreting ETo changes as a proxy for ETc changes

Perspectives from stakeholders on the food-energy-water nexus in metropolitan Seattle

Food, energy, and water (FEW) are deeply intertwined in modern agricultural production, consumption, and management. Policies aimed at increasing local food production and consumption are likely to affect all three FEW sectors as well as the practical and economic relations of producers and consumers to those sectors. This publication synthesizes interview data collected in the summer of 2016 to provide a snapshot of the thoughts of food producers, major agricultural commodity buyers, and policy-makers on topics related to food, agriculture, land-use planning, and energy and water resources around an urban setting. We found that connections between water and food production were well understood by northwestern Washington stakeholders, whereas connections between energy and food and water and energy were less understood or discussed. Many interviewees expressed a desire to work toward improved coordination and collaboration across agencies and organizations, to set goals for sustainable food production in the region, and to address institutional barriers to meeting those goals. Two competing, but not mutually exclusive, visions for a more sustainable regional food system emerged from interviewees: a sharp urban-agricultural boundary vision and a mixed urban-agricultural boundary model. These two models often are at odds with actions of key local agencies. Additionally, it was not clear if a strong, local desire for local food would enhance or exacerbate future food, energy, and water resources

Enhancing stateholder feedback on the 2011 long-term forecast of water supply and demand for the Columbia River basin

Every five years, the Department of Ecology’s Office of Columbia River (OCR) is required to submit a long-term water supply and demand forecast to the Legislature.A significant portion of the 2011 Forecast was carried out in partnership by an interdisciplinary WSU team (see poster #617, “Assessing the impact of climate change on Columbia River Basin agriculture through integrated crop systems, hydrologic, and water management modeling,”for a more detailed description of the Forecast). To gather feedback, the WSU team organized a series of educational workshops and an online survey coinciding with the release of the draft Forecast results. The computer modeling that was central to the 2011 Forecast was assumed to be challenging material for a public outreach process. Research suggests that public knowledge about the nature and purpose of scientific models is low (Schwarz and White 2005). Based on this, workshops provided a non-technical overview of the methodologies used, followed by guided discussion to elicit participant questions and stakeholder responses. In similar contexts, the Department of Ecology normally solicits and responds to written and oral comments submitted by individuals or organizations. To supplement this feedback, we surveyed workshop participants using a wireless response system. The survey was also open during the public comment period through a web portal. Results from the workshops provide insight into the perceived usefulness of various portions of the Forecast, and will help prioritize work on the 2016 Forecas