The Bering Sea : communication with the Western subarctic gyre, mesoscale activity, shelf-basin exchange, and the flow through Bering Strait

A 1/12th-degree, pan-Arctic ice-ocean numerical model is used to better understand the circulation and exchanges in the Bering Sea. Understanding the physical oceanography of the Bering Sea is significant for the U.S. Navy due to the expected increase in ship traffic and exploration of natural resources that will likely coincide with the ongoing retreat of sea ice in the Western Arctic. This model represents a large step forward in the ability to simulate the mesoscale eddies and meanders in the Alaskan Stream and the deep Bering Sea basin, which are shown to exert a strong control on the flow into and out of the western Aleutian Island passes. Model results show that upwelling of deep Bering Sea water, which is the primary source of nutrients for important ecosystems of the Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas, is enhanced by the presence of cyclonic eddies in the vicinity of canyons along the slope. High values of eddy kinetic energy in Bering and Anadyr straits help explain the areas of high biological productivity located just downstream in the Chirikov Basin and north of Bering Strait. Model results show significant horizontal and vertical shear in the flow through Bering Strait, and indicate a need for more observations of the flow structure on a continuous basis.http://archive.org/details/theberingsecommu109451078

A Spatial Evaluation of Arctic Sea Ice and Regional Limitations in CMIP6 Historical Simulations

17 USC 105 interim-entered record; under review.The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0491.1The Arctic sea ice response to a warming climate is assessed in a subset of models participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), using several metrics in comparison with satellite observations and results from the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System and the Regional Arctic System Model. Our study examines the historical representation of sea ice extent, volume, and thickness using spatial analysis metrics, such as the integrated ice edge error, Brier score, and spatial probability score. We find that the CMIP6 multimodel mean captures the mean annual cycle and 1979–2014 sea ice trends remarkably well. However, individual models experience a wide range of uncertainty in the spatial distribution of sea ice when compared against satellite measurements and reanalysis data. Our metrics expose common and individual regional model biases, which sea ice temporal analyses alone do not capture. We identify large ice edge and ice thickness errors in Arctic subregions, implying possible model specific limitations in or lack of representation of some key physical processes. We postulate that many of them could be related to the oceanic forcing, especially in the marginal and shelf seas, where seasonal sea ice changes are not adequately simulated. We therefore conclude that an individual model’s ability to represent the observed/reanalysis spatial distribution still remains a challenge. We propose the spatial analysis metrics as useful tools to diagnose model limitations, narrow down possible processes affecting them, and guide future model improvements critical to the representation and projections of Arctic climate change.U.S. NavyDepartment of Energy (DOE)Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA)Office of Naval Research (ONR)Arctic and Global Prediction (AGP)National Science Foundation (NSF)Arctic System Science (ARCSS)Ministry of Science and Higher Education in PolandDOE: 89243019SSC0036DESC0014117ONR: N0001418WX00364NSF: IAA1417888IAA160360

Sensitivity of Arctic sea ice to variable model parameter space in Regional Arctic System Model simulations

The article of record as published may be found at https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-13039EGU General Assembly 2020The Arctic climate system is very sensitive to the state of sea ice due to its role in controlling heat and momentum exchanges between the atmosphere and the ocean. However, the representation of sea ice state, its past variability and future projections in modern Earth system models (ESMs) vary widely. One of the reasons for that is strong sensitivity of ESMs to sea ice related varying parameter space. Based on limited observations, those parameters typically have a range of possible values and / or are not constant in space and time, which is a source of model uncertainties. The Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) is a limited-domain fully coupled climate model used in this study to investigate sensitivity of sea ice states to limited set of parameters. It includes the atmospheric (Weather Research and Forecasting; WRF) and land hydrology (Variable Inltration Capacity; VIC) components sharing a 50-km pan-Arctic grid. The sea ice (the version 6.0 of Los Alamos sea ice model, CICE) and ocean (Parallel Ocean Program, POP) components share a 1/12° pan-Arctic grid. In addition, a river routing scheme (RVIC) is used to represent the freshwater ux from land to ocean. All components are coupled at high frequency via the Community Earth System Model (CESM) coupler version CPL7. We have selected four parameters out of the set evaluated by Urrego-Blanco et al. (2016) and subject to their potential impact on sea ice and coupling across the atmosphere-sea ice- ocean interface. The total of 96 sensitivity simulations have been completed with fully coupled and forced RASM congurations, varying each parameter within its respective acceptable range. Using sea ice volume as a measure of sensitivity, the thermal conductivity of snow (ksno) parameter has produced the most sensitivity, in qualitative agreement with Urrego-Blanco et al. (2016). However, using dynamics related metrics, such as sea ice drift or deformation, other parameters, i.e. controlling the sea ice roughness and frictional energy dissipation, have been shown more important. Finally, dierent quantitative sensitivities to the same parameter have been diagnosed between fully-coupled and forced RASM simulations, as well as compared to the stand alone sea ice results

Evaluation of Under Sea-ice Phytoplankton Blooms in the Fully-Coupled, High-Resolution Regional Arctic System Model

First posted online: Fri, 31 Jul 2020 09:53:38 | This content has not been peer reviewed.Manuscript submitted to JGR: OceansThe article of record as published may be found at https://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10503749.1In July 2011, observations of a massive phytoplankton bloom in the ice-covered waters of the western Chukchi Sea raised questions about the extent and frequency of under seaice blooms and their contribution to the carbon budget in the Arctic Ocean. To address some of these questions, we use the fully-coupled, high-resolution Regional Arctic System Model to simulate Arctic marine biogeochemistry over a thirty-year period. Our results demonstrate the presence of massive under sea-ice blooms in the western Arctic not only in summer of 2011 but annually throughout the simulation period. In addition, similar blooms, yet of lower magnitude occur annually in the eastern Arctic. We investigate the constraints of nitrate concentration and photosynthetically available radiation (PAR) on the initiation, evolution and cessation of under sea-ice blooms. Our results show that increasing PAR reaching the ocean surface through the sea-ice in early summer, when the majority of ice-covered Arctic waters have sufficient surface nitrate levels, is critical to bloom initiation. However, the duration and cessation of under sea-ice blooms is controlled by available nutrient concentrations as well as by the presence of sea-ice. Since modeled critical PAR level are consistently exceeded in summer only in the western Arctic, we therefore conclude that the eastern Arctic blooms shown in our simulations did not develop under sea ice, but were instead, at least in part, formed in open waters upstream and subsequently advected by ocean currents beneath the sea ice.This research was partially supported by the following: Collaborative Research: Understanding Arctic Marine Biogeochemical Response to Climate Change for Seasonal to Decadal Prediction Using Regional and Global Climate Models, Award number IAA1417888, Program NSF ARCSS; High-Latitude Application and Testing of Earth System Models Phase II, Award number IAA89243019SSC000030, Program DOERGMA; Ministry of Science and Higher Education in Poland in the frame of co-financed international project agreement Award number 3808/FAO/2017/0 RASMer.This research was partially supported by the following: Collaborative Research: Understanding Arctic Marine Biogeochemical Response to Climate Change for Seasonal to Decadal Prediction Using Regional and Global Climate Models, Award number IAA1417888, Program NSF ARCSS; High-Latitude Application and Testing of Earth System Models Phase II, Award number IAA89243019SSC000030, Program DOERGMA; Ministry of Science and Higher Education in Poland in the frame of co-financed international project agreement Award number 3808/FAO/2017/0 RASMer

On the variability of the Bering Sea Cold Pool and implications for the biophysical environment

The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/ journal.pone.0266180The Bering Sea experiences a seasonal sea ice cover, which is important to the biophysical environment found there. A pool of cold bottom water (<2 ?C) is formed on the shelf each winter as a result of cooling and vertical mixing due to brine rejection during the predominately local sea ice growth. The extent and distribution of this Cold Pool (CP) is largely controlled by the winter extent of sea ice in the Bering Sea, which can vary considerably and recently has been much lower than average. The cold bottom water of the CP is important for food security because it delineates the boundary between arctic and subarctic demersal fish species. A northward retreat of the CP will likely be associated with migration of subarctic species toward the Chukchi Sea. We use the fully-coupled Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) to examine variability of the extent and distribution of the CP and its relation to change in the sea ice cover in the Bering Sea during the period 1980–2018. RASM results confirm the direct correlation between the extent of sea ice and the CP and show a smaller CP as a consequence of realistically simulated recent declines of the sea ice cover in the Bering Sea. In fact, the area of the CP was found to be only 31% of the long-term mean in July of 2018. In addition, we also find that a low ice year is followed by a later diatom bloom, while a heavy ice year is followed by an early diatom bloom. Finally, the RASM probabilistic intra-annual forecast capability is reviewed, based on 31-member ensembles for 2019– 2021, for its potential use for prediction of the winter sea ice cover and the subsequent summer CP area in the Bering Sea.This work was supported by the US National Science Foundation (GEO/PLR ARCSS IAA1417888 and IAA1603602), the US Department of Energy (DOE) Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) (89243019SSC0036 and DESC0014117), and the Office of Naval Research (ONR) Arctic and Global Prediction (AGP) (N0001418WX00364). The Department of Defense (DOD) High Performance Computer Modernization Program (HPCMP) provided computer resources.This work was supported by the US National Science Foundation (GEO/PLR ARCSS IAA1417888 and IAA1603602), the US Department of Energy (DOE) Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) (89243019SSC0036 and DESC0014117), and the Office of Naval Research (ONR) Arctic and Global Prediction (AGP) (N0001418WX00364). The Department of Defense (DOD) High Performance Computer Modernization Program (HPCMP) provided computer resources

Intrusion of warm Bering/Chukchi waters onto the shelf in the western Beaufort Sea

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2009. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 114 (2009): C00A11, doi:10.1029/2008JC004870.Wind-driven changes in the path of warm Bering/Chukchi waters carried by the Alaska Coastal Current (ACC) through Barrow Canyon during late summer are described from high-resolution hydrography, acoustic Doppler current profiler–measured currents, and satellite-measured sea surface temperature imagery acquired from mid-August to mid-September 2005–2007 near Barrow, Alaska. Numerical simulations are used to provide a multidecadal context for these observational data. Four generalized wind regimes and associated circulation states are identified. When winds are from the east or east-southeast, the ACC jet tends to be relatively strong and flows adjacent to the shelf break along the southern flank of Barrow Canyon. These easterly winds drive inner shelf currents northwestward along the Alaskan Beaufort coast where they oppose significant eastward intrusions of warm water from Barrow Canyon onto the shelf. Because these easterly winds promote sea level set down over the Beaufort shelf and upwelling along the Beaufort slope, the ACC jet necessarily becomes weaker, broader, and displaced seaward from the Beaufort shelf break upon exiting Barrow Canyon. Winds from the northeast promote separation of the ACC from the southern flank of Barrow Canyon and establish an up-canyon current along the southern flank that is fed in part by waters from the western Beaufort shelf. When winds are weak or from the southwest, warm Bering/Chukchi waters from Barrow Canyon intrude onto the western Beaufort shelf.This work was supported in 2005 and 2006 by NSF grants OPP-0436131 and OPP-0436166. In 2007, this work received support through Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution- NOAA Cooperative Institute for Climate and Ocean Research Cooperative Agreement NA17RJ1223 and University of Alaska Fairbanks-NOAA Cooperative Institute for Arctic Research Cooperative Agreement NA17RJ1224. Additional support was provided by the James M. and Ruth P. Clark Arctic Research Initiative Fund at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

On the circulation, water mass distribution, and nutrient concentrations of the western Chukchi Sea

17 USC 105 interim-entered record; under review.The article of record as published may be found at https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-29-2022Substantial amounts of nutrients and carbon enter the Arctic Ocean from the Pacific Ocean through the Bering Strait, distributed over three main pathways. Water with low salinities and nutrient concentrations takes an eastern route along the Alaskan coast, as Alaskan Coastal Water. A central pathway exhibits intermediate salinity and nutrient concentrations, while the most nutrient-rich water enters the Bering Strait on its western side. Towards the Arctic Ocean, the flow of these water masses is subject to strong topographic steering within the Chukchi Sea with volume trans port modulated by the wind field. In this contribution, we use data from several sections crossing Herald Canyon collected in 2008 and 2014 together with numerical modelling to investigate the circulation and transport in the western part of the Chukchi Sea. We find that a substantial fraction of water from the Chukchi Sea enters the East Siberian Sea south of Wrangel Island and circulates in an anticyclonic direction around the island. This water then contributes to the high nutrient waters of Herald Canyon. The bottom of the canyon has the highest nutrient concentrations, likely as a result of addition from the degradation of organic matter at the sediment surface in the East Siberian Sea. The flux of nutrients (nitrate, phosphate, and silicate) and dissolved inorganic carbon in Bering Summer Water and Winter Water is computed by combining hydrographic and nutrient observations with geostrophic transport referenced to lowered acoustic Doppler current profiler (LADCP) and surface drift data. Even if there are some general similarities between the years, there are differences in both the temperature–salinity and nutrient characteristics. To assess these differences, and also to get a wider temporal and spatial view, numerical modelling results are applied. According to model results, high-frequency variability dominates the flow in Herald Canyon. This leads us to conclude that this region needs to be monitored over a longer time frame to deduce the temporal variability and potential trends.The science was financially supported by: US National Science Foundation (Grant Number: GEO/PLR ARCSS 575 IAA#1417888), the Department of Energy (DOE) Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA), the Swedish Research Council Formas (contract no. 2018-01398), and the Swedish Research Council (contract nos. 621-2006-3240, 621-2010-4084, and 2012-1680). This work was carried out with logistic support from the Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation and from Swedish Polar Research Secretariat. The Department of Defense (DOD) High Performance Computer Modernization Program (HPCMP) provided computer resources. This study was also supported by the Russian Scientific Foundation (grant no. # 21-77-580 30001).The science was financially supported by: US National Science Foundation (Grant Number: GEO/PLR ARCSS 575 IAA#1417888), the Department of Energy (DOE) Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA), the Swedish Re search Council Formas (contract no. 2018-01398), and the Swedish Research Council (contract nos. 621-2006-3240, 621-2010-4084, and 2012-1680). This work was carried out with logistic support from the Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation and from Swedish Polar Research Secretariat. The Department of Defense (DOD) High Performance Computer Modernization Program (HPCMP) provided computer resources. This study was also supported by the Russian Scientific Foundation (grant no. # 21-77-580 30001)

Ecological characteristics of core-use areas used by Bering–Chukchi–Beaufort (BCB) bowhead whales, 2006–2012

© The Author(s), 2014]. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Progress in Oceanography 136 (2015): 201-222, doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2014.08.012.The Bering–Chukchi–Beaufort (BCB) population of bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus) ranges across the seasonally ice-covered waters of the Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas. We used locations from 54 bowhead whales, obtained by satellite telemetry between 2006 and 2012, to define areas of concentrated use, termed “core-use areas”. We identified six primary core-use areas and describe the timing of use and physical characteristics (oceanography, sea ice, and winds) associated with these areas. In spring, most whales migrated from wintering grounds in the Bering Sea to the Cape Bathurst polynya, Canada (Area 1), and spent the most time in the vicinity of the halocline at depths <75 m, which are within the euphotic zone, where calanoid copepods ascend following winter diapause. Peak use of the polynya occurred between 7 May and 5 July; whales generally left in July, when copepods are expected to descend to deeper depths. Between 12 July and 25 September, most tagged whales were located in shallow shelf waters adjacent to the Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula, Canada (Area 2), where wind-driven upwelling promotes the concentration of calanoid copepods. Between 22 August and 2 November, whales also congregated near Point Barrow, Alaska (Area 3), where east winds promote upwelling that moves zooplankton onto the Beaufort shelf, and subsequent relaxation of these winds promoted zooplankton aggregations. Between 27 October and 8 January, whales congregated along the northern shore of Chukotka, Russia (Area 4), where zooplankton likely concentrated along a coastal front between the southeastward-flowing Siberian Coastal Current and northward-flowing Bering Sea waters. The two remaining core-use areas occurred in the Bering Sea: Anadyr Strait (Area 5), where peak use occurred between 29 November and 20 April, and the Gulf of Anadyr (Area 6), where peak use occurred between 4 December and 1 April; both areas exhibited highly fractured sea ice. Whales near the Gulf of Anadyr spent almost half of their time at depths between 75 and 100 m, usually near the seafloor, where a subsurface front between cold Anadyr Water and warmer Bering Shelf Water presumably aggregates zooplankton. The amount of time whales spent near the seafloor in the Gulf of Anadyr, where copepods (in diapause) and, possibly, euphausiids are expected to aggregate provides strong evidence that bowhead whales are feeding in winter. The timing of bowhead spring migration corresponds with when zooplankton are expected to begin their spring ascent in April. The core-use areas we identified are also generally known from other studies to have high densities of whales and we are confident these areas represent the majority of important feeding areas during the study (2006–2012). Other feeding areas, that we did not detect, likely existed during the study and we expect core-use area boundaries to shift in response to changing hydrographic conditions.This study is part of the Synthesis of Arctic Research (SOAR) and was funded in part by the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Environmental Studies Program through Interagency Agreement No. M11PG00034 with the U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR), Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL). Funding for this research was mainly provided by U.S. Minerals Management Service (now Bureau of Ocean Energy Management) under contracts M12PC00005, M10PS00192, and 01-05-CT39268, with the support and assistance from Charles Monnett and Jeffery Denton, and under Interagency Agreement No. M08PG20021 with NOAA-NMFS and Contract No. M10PC00085 with ADF&G. Work in Canada was also funded by the Fisheries Joint Management Committee, Ecosystem Research Initiative (DFO), and Panel for Energy Research and Development

Results of recent Pacific-Arctic ice-ocean modeling studies at the Naval Postgraduate School

Summary of results from a high - resolution pan - Arctic ice - ocean model are presented for the North Pacific, Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort seas. The main focus is on the mean circulation, communication from the Gulf of Alaska across the Bering Sea into the western Arctic Ocean and on mesoscale eddy activity within several important ecosystems. Model results from 1979 - 2004 are compared to observations whenever possible. The high spatial model resolution at 1/12o (or ~9 km) in the horizontal and 45 levels in the vertical direction allows for representation of eddies with diameter as small as 36 km. However, we believe that upcoming new model integrations at even higher resolution will allow us to resolve even smaller eddies. This is especially important at the highest latitudes where the Rossby radius of deformation is as small as 10 km or less