RTB Formulation Using Point Process

We propose a general stochastic framework for modelling repeated auctions in the Real Time Bidding (RTB) ecosystem using point processes. The flexibility of the framework allows a variety of auction scenarios including configuration of information provided to player, determination of auction winner and quantification of utility gained from each auctions. We propose theoretical results on how this formulation of process can be approximated to a Poisson point process, which enables the analyzer to take advantage of well-established properties. Under this framework, we specify the player's optimal strategy under various scenarios. We also emphasize that it is critical to consider the joint distribution of utility and market condition instead of estimating the marginal distributions independently

Addressing Distribution Shift in RTB Markets via Exponential Tilting

Distribution shift in machine learning models can be a primary cause of performance degradation. This paper delves into the characteristics of these shifts, primarily motivated by Real-Time Bidding (RTB) market models. We emphasize the challenges posed by class imbalance and sample selection bias, both potent instigators of distribution shifts. This paper introduces the Exponential Tilt Reweighting Alignment (ExTRA) algorithm, as proposed by Marty et al. (2023), to address distribution shifts in data. The ExTRA method is designed to determine the importance weights on the source data, aiming to minimize the KL divergence between the weighted source and target datasets. A notable advantage of this method is its ability to operate using labeled source data and unlabeled target data. Through simulated real-world data, we investigate the nature of distribution shift and evaluate the applicacy of the proposed model

Generalized gravity model for human migration

The gravity model (GM) analogous to Newton's law of universal gravitation has successfully described the flow between different spatial regions, such as human migration, traffic flows, international economic trades, etc. This simple but powerful approach relies only on the 'mass' factor represented by the scale of the regions and the 'geometrical' factor represented by the geographical distance. However, when the population has a subpopulation structure distinguished by different attributes, the estimation of the flow solely from the coarse-grained geographical factors in the GM causes the loss of differential geographical information for each attribute. To exploit the full information contained in the geographical information of subpopulation structure, we generalize the GM for population flow by explicitly harnessing the subpopulation properties characterized by both attributes and geography. As a concrete example, we examine the marriage patterns between the bride and the groom clans of Korea in the past. By exploiting more refined geographical and clan information, our generalized GM properly describes the real data, a part of which could not be explained by the conventional GM. Therefore, we would like to emphasize the necessity of using our generalized version of the GM, when the information on such nongeographical subpopulation structures is available.Comment: 14 pages, 6 figures, 2 table