Evaluation of the lifecycle environmental benefits of full battery powered ships : comparative analysis of marine diesel and electricity

The paper aims to investigate the holistic environmental benefits of using a battery system on a roll on/roll off (ro-ro) passenger ship which was originally fitted with a diesel engine engaged in Korean coastal service. The process of this research has multiple layers. First, the operating profiles of the case ship were collected, such as speed, output, operation time and the configuration of the diesel propulsion system. Second, the full battery propulsion system, in place of the diesel system, was modelled and simulated on a power simulation software (PSIM) platform to verify the adequacy of the proposed battery propulsion system. Then, the life cycle assessment method was applied to comprehensively compare the environmental footprint of the diesel-mechanical and fully battery-powered vessels. A focus was placed on the life cycle of the energy sources consumed by the case ship in consideration of the South Korea’s current energy importation and production status. Three life cycle stages were considered in the analysis: ‘production’, ‘transport’ and ‘use’. With the aid of Sphera GaBi Software Version 2019 and its extensive data library, the environmental impacts at the energy production and transport stages were evaluated, while the same impacts at the use stage were determined based on actual laboratory measurements. The environmental performance of the two scenarios in four impact categories was discussed: global warming potential (GWP), acidification potential (AP), eutrophication potential (EP) and photochemical ozone creation potential (POCP). Results of the comparative analysis are presented based on estimates of the overall reduction in the environmental impact potential, thereby demonstrating the overall benefits of using a battery driven propulsion, with a decrease of the GWP by 35.7%, the AP by 77.6%, the EP by 87.8% and the POCP by 77.2%. A series of sensitivity analyses, however, has delivered the important message that the integration of batteries with marine transportation means may not always be the best solution. The types of energy sources used for electricity generation will be a key factor in determining whether the battery technology can ultimately contribute to cleaner shipping or not. By casting doubts on the benefits of battery propulsion, this paper is believed to offer a meaningful insight into developing a proper road map for electrifying ship propulsion toward zero emission of shipping

Cardiovascular disease risk assessment using a deep-learning-based retinal biomarker: a comparison with existing risk scores

Aims: This study aims to evaluate the ability of a deep-learning-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) retinal biomarker, Reti-CVD, to identify individuals with intermediate- and high-risk for CVD. Methods and results: We defined the intermediate- and high-risk groups according to Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE), QRISK3, and modified Framingham Risk Score (FRS). Reti-CVD’s prediction was compared to the number of individuals identified as intermediate- and high-risk according to standard CVD risk assessment tools, and sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated to assess the results. In the UK Biobank, among 48 260 participants, 20 643 (42.8%) and 7192 (14.9%) were classified into the intermediate- and high-risk groups according to PCE, and QRISK3, respectively. In the Singapore Epidemiology of Eye Diseases study, among 6810 participants, 3799 (55.8%) were classified as intermediate- and high-risk group according to modified FRS. Reti-CVD identified PCE-based intermediate- and high-risk groups with a sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of 82.7%, 87.6%, 86.5%, and 84.0%, respectively. Reti-CVD identified QRISK3-based intermediate- and high-risk groups with a sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of 82.6%, 85.5%, 49.9%, and 96.6%, respectively. Reti-CVD identified intermediate- and high-risk groups according to the modified FRS with a sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of 82.1%, 80.6%, 76.4%, and 85.5%, respectively. Conclusion: The retinal photograph biomarker (Reti-CVD) was able to identify individuals with intermediate and high-risk for CVD, in accordance with existing risk assessment tools

Cardiovascular disease risk assessment using a deep-learning-based retinal biomarker: a comparison with existing risk scores.

AimsThis study aims to evaluate the ability of a deep-learning-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) retinal biomarker, Reti-CVD, to identify individuals with intermediate- and high-risk for CVD.Methods and resultsWe defined the intermediate- and high-risk groups according to Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE), QRISK3, and modified Framingham Risk Score (FRS). Reti-CVD's prediction was compared to the number of individuals identified as intermediate- and high-risk according to standard CVD risk assessment tools, and sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated to assess the results. In the UK Biobank, among 48 260 participants, 20 643 (42.8%) and 7192 (14.9%) were classified into the intermediate- and high-risk groups according to PCE, and QRISK3, respectively. In the Singapore Epidemiology of Eye Diseases study, among 6810 participants, 3799 (55.8%) were classified as intermediate- and high-risk group according to modified FRS. Reti-CVD identified PCE-based intermediate- and high-risk groups with a sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of 82.7%, 87.6%, 86.5%, and 84.0%, respectively. Reti-CVD identified QRISK3-based intermediate- and high-risk groups with a sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of 82.6%, 85.5%, 49.9%, and 96.6%, respectively. Reti-CVD identified intermediate- and high-risk groups according to the modified FRS with a sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of 82.1%, 80.6%, 76.4%, and 85.5%, respectively.ConclusionThe retinal photograph biomarker (Reti-CVD) was able to identify individuals with intermediate and high-risk for CVD, in accordance with existing risk assessment tools

Validation of a deep-learning-based retinal biomarker (Reti-CVD) in the prediction of cardiovascular disease: data from UK Biobank

BackgroundCurrently in the United Kingdom, cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment is based on the QRISK3 score, in which 10% 10-year CVD risk indicates clinical intervention. However, this benchmark has limited efficacy in clinical practice and the need for a more simple, non-invasive risk stratification tool is necessary. Retinal photography is becoming increasingly acceptable as a non-invasive imaging tool for CVD. Previously, we developed a novel CVD risk stratification system based on retinal photographs predicting future CVD risk. This study aims to further validate our biomarker, Reti-CVD, (1) to detect risk group of ≥ 10% in 10-year CVD risk and (2) enhance risk assessment in individuals with QRISK3 of 7.5-10% (termed as borderline-QRISK3 group) using the UK Biobank.MethodsReti-CVD scores were calculated and stratified into three risk groups based on optimized cut-off values from the UK Biobank. We used Cox proportional-hazards models to evaluate the ability of Reti-CVD to predict CVD events in the general population. C-statistics was used to assess the prognostic value of adding Reti-CVD to QRISK3 in borderline-QRISK3 group and three vulnerable subgroups.ResultsAmong 48,260 participants with no history of CVD, 6.3% had CVD events during the 11-year follow-up. Reti-CVD was associated with an increased risk of CVD (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.41; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.30-1.52) with a 13.1% (95% CI, 11.7-14.6%) 10-year CVD risk in Reti-CVD-high-risk group. The 10-year CVD risk of the borderline-QRISK3 group was greater than 10% in Reti-CVD-high-risk group (11.5% in non-statin cohort [n = 45,473], 11.5% in stage 1 hypertension cohort [n = 11,966], and 14.2% in middle-aged cohort [n = 38,941]). C statistics increased by 0.014 (0.010-0.017) in non-statin cohort, 0.013 (0.007-0.019) in stage 1 hypertension cohort, and 0.023 (0.018-0.029) in middle-aged cohort for CVD event prediction after adding Reti-CVD to QRISK3.ConclusionsReti-CVD has the potential to identify individuals with ≥ 10% 10-year CVD risk who are likely to benefit from earlier preventative CVD interventions. For borderline-QRISK3 individuals with 10-year CVD risk between 7.5 and 10%, Reti-CVD could be used as a risk enhancer tool to help improve discernment accuracy, especially in adult groups that may be pre-disposed to CVD

Comparative Analysis on AC and DC Distribution Systems for Electric Propulsion Ship

Decarbonization is an ongoing issue in the shipping industry, and electric propulsion systems are being proposed as alternative solutions to satisfy this requirement. To answer the fundamental questions of “Are electric propulsion systems the green solution?” and “Can DC distribution systems contribute to the decarbonization in shipping?”, this paper analyzed DC distribution system electrical characteristics, economic feasibility, and environmental evaluation for a full-scale AC-DC hybrid distribution electric propulsion system facility. By applying the actual ship’s operating profile as inputs, a DC distribution system with an active front end rectifier and a variable speed generator engine was proven to guarantee the same electric stability as the conventional AC distribution system. The life cycle assessment results achieved economic and life cycle environmental benefits of about 10% (8.9% for Case 1 and 12.4% for Case 2). These research findings offer meaningful insights into the DC distribution system to minimize fuel consumption and emissions toward cleaner shipping

The causes and responses to cargo hold fire accidents in RoRo ships using AcciMap

ABSTRACTThe recent string of cargo hold fire incidents on RoRo ships represents one of the most challenging types of ship fire accidents. The densely stowed vehicle cargo loading structure and large volume of RoRo ship cargo holds are factors that complicate firefighting efforts. In addition, vehicle cargoes have a higher likelihood of self-ignition compared to other types of cargo and produce dense smoke when a fire occurs. Combustible materials inside vehicles can also contribute to the spread of fires after they start. Particularly, the recent increase in demand for electric vehicles calls for changes in how we respond to potential cargo hold fires on RoRo ships and heightens the risk of such incidents. In this study, we analyzed major domestic and international RoRo cargo hold fire incidents using AcciMap, a system analysis method. Through this analysis, we identified needs for improved management of vehicle cargo conditions, responses to fixed firefighting systems and system inspections, as well as improvements to fire detection systems. By using a systems analysis approach, we were able to identify areas for improvement needed by ships, ports, governments, shippers, and shipping companies

A study on the weak points of stator windings of high voltage rotating machinery for ships

ABSTRACTReliability studies of existing rotating machine insulation systems mainly focused on reliability evaluation for diagnosis and life prediction of generators and motors of various onshore power plants. However, with the increase in commercial rated voltage of marine rotating machine, accidents related to insulation systems occur frequently, and since many difficulties are caused in repair and replacement, the demand for improved reliability of marine high-voltage rotating machine is increasing.Accordingly, several international classification societies have begun to require tests to confirm the reliability of the insulation system of high-voltage rotating machine for ships. For the first time among them, in accordance with Rule Proposal No.2015/EL01 (Rules and Regulations for the Classification of Ships, 2016) at Lloyd, international classification for generators and motors contracted after July 2016 is required. It was requested to present the insulation deterioration reliability results of the rotating machines insulation system according to the standards (IEC 60,034-18-31, IEC 60,034-18-32, IEC 60,034-18-33, IEC 60,034-18-34).In this paper, in order to check the weak points of the high-voltage rotating machinery of a ship against voltage deterioration among the above four standards, a test procedure was developed in accordance with the IEC 60,034-18-32 standard, and the weak points were identified and analyzed through testing did

Prognostics for integrity of steam generator tubes using the general path model

Concerns over reliability assessments of the main components in nuclear power plants (NPPs) related to aging and continuous operation have increased. The conventional reliability assessment for main components uses experimental correlations under general conditions. Most NPPs have been operating in Korea for a long time, and it is predictable that NPPs operating for the same number of years would show varying extent of aging and degradation. The conventional reliability assessment does not adequately reflect the characteristics of an individual plant. Therefore, the reliability of individual components and an individual plant was estimated according to operating data and conditions. It is essential to reflect aging as a characteristic of individual NPPs, and this is performed through prognostics. To handle this difficulty, in this paper, the general path model/Bayes, a data-based prognostic method, was used to update the reliability estimated from the generic database. As a case study, the authors consider the aging for steam generator tubes in NPPs and demonstrate the suggested methodology with data obtained from the probabilistic algorithm for the steam generator tube assessment program

Development of a Simplified Performance Monitoring System for Small and Medium Sized Ships

Regulations on emissions from ships are being strengthened, and emission reduction systems and alternative technologies are being developed. In addition, the amount of emissions is closely related to the performance of the propulsion systems of the ship; however, performance measurement systems have mainly been developed for large commercial ships. For small and medium-sized ships, although the output of the propulsion system is rather low, the number of vessels sailing in the coast is very high. Therefore, a performance-monitoring system is required for small and medium-sized ships. However, for small and medium-sized ships, there are no suitable performance and emissions calculation systems. Conventional performance-measuring and analysis systems for large ships have difficulties in terms of their cost and installation when applied to small and medium-sized ships. In this study, a new system was developed that is able to calculate the speed, power, fuel consumption, carbon dioxide emission assumptions, and efficiency of a ship by receiving simple key data such as GPS, fuel flow, and rpm data rather than checking the ship’s condition using massive forms of data. The system transmits data to the shore’s remote-monitoring center in real-time through a communication network. Using these data, it is possible to estimate a ship’s aging factor, engine performance, amount of exhaust gas, etc., and the accumulated data of all coastal ships in a country can be used as basic data for governments to use to support eco-friendly ship policies