Commodity futures price behaviour following large one-day price changes

This study examines individual commodity futures price reactions to large one-day price changes, or “shocks”. The mean-adjusted abnormal return model suggests that investors in 6 of the 18 commodity futures examined in this study either underreact or overreact to positive surprises. It also detects underreaction patterns in 8 commodity future prices following negative surprises. However, after making appropriate systematic risk and conditional heteroskedasticity adjustments, we show that almost all commodity futures react efficiently to shocks

Excess cash, trading continuity, and liquidity risk

This study investigates the impact of excess cash on the liquidity risk faced by investors and their required liquidity premium. It shows that excess cash improves trading continuity and reduces both liquidity risk and the cost of equity capital. These findings are consistent with the view that firms with excess cash attract more traders even when market liquidity dries up. The increase in investors' trading propensity reduces stock price exposure to shocks to market liquidity and the liquidity premium required by investors. We also examine the impact of excess cash on firm value. We show that while the direct effect of excess cash on firm value is negative, its indirect effect through liquidity is significantly positive, indicating that investors are less likely to sanction (or even reward) illiquid firms for holding excess cash. Further analysis suggests that the liquidity benefits of excess cash are greater for financially constrained firms and firms with high growth opportunities. Our results are robust over time, after addressing endogeneity concerns, and to alternative estimation methods and alternative measures of liquidity

The consequences of political donations for IPO premium and performance

This study explores the effect of directors' political contributions on IPOs' valuation and firm survival. We find that individual contributions by directors bring significant benefits to the IPO firms. Specifically, we show that political contributions of board members, particularly those of CEOs and founders, increase the IPO premium and the survivability of IPO firms. We find that the relationship between directors' political contributions and IPO premium is particularly strong among non-venture-backed firms, while the link between directors' political contributions and firm survival is more pronounced for venture-backed firms with strong corporate governance. Our findings are robust to endogeneity concerns and to alternative measures of political donations and IPO performance. Our results confirm the relevance of signaling and resource dependence theories.</p

The long-term performance of Hong Kong share-only and unit initial public offerings (IPOs)

This study examines the long-term price performance of share-only versus unit IPOs issued on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange during 1990–2002. Our main objective is to test the extent to which the agency cost and signaling models explain the reasons for unit IPOs issuance using the long-term price performance approach. The agency cost model suggests that firms include warrants in their offerings to bind managers to optimal investment decisions. Under this model, unit IPOs are expected to possess better quality projects and, therefore, generate higher long-term risk-adjusted returns than share-only IPOs. The signaling model expects unit IPOs to be riskier than share-only IPOs. To compensate investors for bearing the extra risk, unit IPOs should yield higher returns than share-only IPOs in the long run. Thus, the signaling model expects unit IPOs to outperform share-only IPOs at least before conducting appropriate risk adjustments. Our long-term price performance evidence rejects the predictions of both models

The R&amp;D anomaly:Risk or mispricing?

We offer new evidence on the risk versus mispricing explanations for the R&D anomaly. Return covariance with a characteristic-based factor captures the cross-sectional return variation on R&D portfolios not explained by asset pricing models. This is consistent with both covariance risk and mispricing. Under the framework of the ICAPM, we find little economic justification that an R&D factor is a proxy for innovations to a state variable. The characteristic subsumes the factor loading in direct tests, providing support to the mispricing hypothesis. Investigating the mispricing explanation further, we reject the assertion that the R&D anomaly arises from the correction of stocks mispriced by investor sentiment. A natural experiment exploiting the pilot program under Regulation SHO shows no evidence that the anomaly persists due to limits to arbitrage in the form of short sale constraints

Does Gold Offer a Better Protection Against Losses in Sovereign Debt Bonds than Other Precious Metals

It is a commonly held view that gold protects investors’ wealth in the event of negative economic conditions. In this study, we test whether other metals offer similar or better investment opportunities in periods of market turmoil. Using a sample of 13 sovereign bonds, we show that other precious metals, palladium in particular, offer investors greater compensation for their bond market losses than gold. We also find that industrial metals, especially copper, tend to outperform gold and other precious metals as hedging vehicles and safe haven assets against losses in sovereign bonds. However, the outcome of the hedge and safe haven properties is not always consistent across the different bonds. Finally, our analysis suggests that copper is the best performing metal in the period immediately after negative bond price shocks

Excess cash, trading continuity, and liquidity risk

This study investigates the impact of excess cash on the liquidity risk faced by investors and their required liquidity premium. It shows that excess cash improves trading continuity and reduces both liquidity risk and the cost of equity capital. These findings are consistent with the view that firms with excess cash attract more traders even when market liquidity dries up. The increase in investors’ trading propensity reduces stock price exposure to shocks to market liquidity and the liquidity premium required by investors. We also examine the impact of excess cash on firm value. We show that while the direct effect of excess cash on firm value is negative, its indirect effect through liquidity is significantly positive, indicating that investors are less likely to sanction (or even reward) illiquid firms for holding excess cash. Further analysis suggests that the liquidity benefits of excess cash are greater for financially constrained firms and firms with high growth opportunities. Our results are robust over time, after addressing endogeneity concerns, and to alternative estimation methods and alternative measures of liquidity

Investor sentiment and the cross-section of stock returns: New theory and evidence

We extend the noise trader risk model of Delong et al. (J Polit Econ 98:703–738, 1990) to a model with multiple risky assets to demonstrate the effect of investor sentiment on the cross-section of stock returns. Our model formally demonstrates that market-wide sentiment leads to relatively higher contemporaneous returns and lower subsequent returns for stocks that are more prone to sentiment and difficult to arbitrage. Our extended model is consistent with the existing empirical evidence on the relationship between sentiment and cross-sectional stock returns. Guided by the extended model, wen also decompose investor sentiment into long- and short-run components and predict that long-run sentiment negatively associates with the cross-sectional return and short-run sentiment positively varies with the cross-sectional return. Consistent with these predictions, we find a negative relationship between the long-run sentiment component and subsequent stock returns and positive association between the short-run sentiment component and contemporaneous stock returns

Price reaction of ethically screened stocks: a study of the Dow Jones Islamic Market World Index

This paper investigates the short-term effects on the price of the ethically screened stocks of the Dow Jones Islamic Market World Index (DJIMWI) quarterly revisions. Using a sample of 8,250 stocks from May 1999 through June 2012, we find a significant price reaction of the ethically screened stocks following additions and deletions. The results show that additions (deletions) from emerging stock markets tend to experience a greater and significantly positive (negative) price response than additions (deletions) from the developed markets. Further tests reveal that the price reactions following DJIMWI revisions are likely to be driven by shifts in investor sentiment rather than changes in firm fundamentals