Predicting the impact of sea-level rise in Baie Orientale and Baie de L'Embouchure, Saint Martin: Application of a hydrodynamic model including seagrass and coral reefs

Shallow bays in the Caribbean, like Baie Orientale and Baie de L'Embouchure in Saint Martin, are often sheltered by coral reefs and covered by seagrass meadows. They provide valuable services as tourism and coastal protection. The ecosystems are linked through biological, chemical and physical processes. But they are under pressure due to sea-level rise. The response of one of the ecosystems to climate change could impact the other ecosystem. In order to predict the impact of sea-level rise on the biogeomorphology in Baie Orientale and Baie de L'Embouchure, the hydrodynamic model Delft3D Flexible Mesh is applied. The effect of seagrass meadows and coral reefs on both flow and waves are captured with this model. In this way, the long term change in average hydrodynamic conditions due to sea-level rise is determined depending on the response of the ecosystems. A wave-driven circulation is found in both bays with flows of 0.5 m/s over the reefs and currents of 0.2 m/s inside the bays. The hydrodynamic conditions are mainly determined by the reef height. Depending on the response of coral reefs to climate change and the amount of sea-level rise, the wave height inside the bays and the wave-induced currents increase. Under the worst-case scenario, where coral reefs degrade and seagrass meadows die, flow velocities increase by more than 100% in Baie de L'Embouchure and by 200% in Baie Orientale under a sea-level rise of 0.87 m. The significant wave height rises to 300% in Baie Orientale and doubles in Baie de L'Embouchure. But this increase of hydrodynamic stresses is not expected to lead to devastating damage to coral reefs and seagrass meadows. Instead, the response of coral reefs will be determined by changing water temperatures and ocean acidification. A shift in seagrass occurrence due to the changed hydrodynamics is expected. The long term impact of sea-level rise on the biogeomorphology of Baie de L'Embouchure and Baie Orientale seems to be limited. The ability to mitigate the impact of sea-level rise is shown and the resilience of the ecosystems proved, which is very promising for other shallow Caribbean bays that are threatened by sea-level rise. SCENE

Tide-surge, tide and surge simulations output of 2D DCSM-FM v7 from 1980 to 2020 at Euro platform.

This dataset includes results of hydrodynamic simulations for Euro platform, an offshore structure located in the southern North Sea that serves as a beacon for shipping and a measurement platform for the location. The results were generated with the 2D Dutch Continental Shelf Model - Flexible Mesh (DCSM, [Zijl and Groenenboom, 2019]), the successor of the version in Zijl et al. [2013,2015]. The model describes the tide-surge water level variability for the northwest European continental shelf between 15◦W to 13◦E and 43◦N to 64◦N by solving the depth-integrated shallow-water equations for hydrodynamic modeling of free-surface flows [Leendertse, 1967, Stelling, 1984]. Water level conditions are applied at the northern, western, and southern open boundaries. When modeling the tide-surge water levels, they are composed of the sum of the astronomical water levels and the surge. The tides are obtained from a harmonic expansion of 32 tidal constituents retrieved from the global ocean tide model FES2012 [Carr`ere et al., 2013] supplemented with the solar annual Sa constituent obtained from an earlier version of the model. The surge at the open boundaries is approximated by the time- and space-dependent inverse barometer correction. A smaller part of the tides is generated from the tidal potential within the model domain. When included, time- and space-varying atmospheric wind and pressure forcings are obtained from the ECMWF’s ERA5 reanalysis dataset [Hersbach et al., 2020]. In our simulations, we force the model by i) both tidal and meteorological (i.e., atmospheric wind and pressure) forcing, ii) tidal forcing only, and iii) meteorological forcing only. This enumeration also relates to the files included and described below.  The files included are:  i. 2D_DCSM-FM_A03_FES2014_GTSM_H1H2_1980-2020_EURPFM_complete.pkl ii. 2D_DCSM-FM_A03_FES2014_GTSM_H1H2_1980-2020_astro_EURPFM_complete.pkl iii. 2D_DCSM-FM_A03_FES2014_GTSM_H1H2_1980-2020_noTide_noTGF_EURPFM_complete.pkl References: F. Zijl and J. Groenenboom. Development of a sixth-generation model for the NW European Shelf (DCSM-FM 0.5nm). Technical report, Deltares, 2019. Available online at: https: //publications.deltares.nl/11203715_004.pdf (accessed July 18, 2022). F. Zijl, M. Verlaan, and H. Gerritsen. Improved water-level forecasting for the northwest european shelf and north sea through direct modeling of tide, surge and non-linear interaction. Ocean Dynam., 63(7):823–847, 2013. ISSN 1616-7228. doi: 10.1007/s10236-013-0624-2. F. Zijl, J. Sumihar, and M. Verlaan. Application of data assimilation for improved operational water level forecasting on the northwest European shelf and north sea. Ocean Dynam., 65(12): 1699–1716, 2015. ISSN 1616-7228. doi: 10.1007/s10236-015-0898-7. L. Carr`ere, F. Lyard, M. Cancet, A. Guillot, and L. Roblou. FES2012: A New Global Tidal Model Taking Advantage of Nearly 20 Years of Altimetry. In L. Ouwehand, editor, 20 Years of Progress in Radar Altimetry, volume 710 of ESA Special Publication, page 13, Sept. 2013. H. Hersbach, B. Bell, P. Berrisford, S. Hirahara, A. Hor ́anyi, J. Mu ̃noz-Sabater, J. Nicolas, C. Peubey, R. Radu, D. Schepers, et al. The ERA5 global reanalysis. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146(730):1999–2049, 2020. doi: 10.1002/qj.3803. J. J. Leendertse. Aspects of a Computational Model for Long-period Water-wave Propagation. Rand Corporation for the United States Air Force Project Rand, 1967. LEGOS/CNRS/CLS. Dynamic atmospheric correction, 1992. URL https://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/data/products/auxiliary-products/dynamic-atmospheric-correction.html. G. S. Stelling. On the construction of computational methods for shallow water flow problems. PhD thesis, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 1984. Rijkswaterstaat Communications 35. </p

Tide-surge, tide and surge simulations output of 2D DCSM-FM v7 from 1980 to 2020 at Euro platform.

This dataset includes results of hydrodynamic simulations for Euro platform, an offshore structure located in the southern North Sea that serves as a beacon for shipping and a measurement platform for the location. The results were generated with the 2D Dutch Continental Shelf Model - Flexible Mesh (DCSM, [Zijl and Groenenboom, 2019]), the successor of the version in Zijl et al. [2013,2015]. The model describes the tide-surge water level variability for the northwest European continental shelf between 15◦W to 13◦E and 43◦N to 64◦N by solving the depth-integrated shallow-water equations for hydrodynamic modeling of free-surface flows [Leendertse, 1967, Stelling, 1984]. Water level conditions are applied at the northern, western, and southern open boundaries. When modeling the tide-surge water levels, they are composed of the sum of the astronomical water levels and the surge. The tides are obtained from a harmonic expansion of 32 tidal constituents retrieved from the global ocean tide model FES2012 [Carr`ere et al., 2013] supplemented with the solar annual Sa constituent obtained from an earlier version of the model. The surge at the open boundaries is approximated by the time- and space-dependent inverse barometer correction. A smaller part of the tides is generated from the tidal potential within the model domain. When included, time- and space-varying atmospheric wind and pressure forcings are obtained from the ECMWF’s ERA5 reanalysis dataset [Hersbach et al., 2020]. In our simulations, we force the model by i) both tidal and meteorological (i.e., atmospheric wind and pressure) forcing, ii) tidal forcing only, and iii) meteorological forcing only. This enumeration also relates to the files included and described below.  The files included are:  i. 2D_DCSM-FM_A03_FES2014_GTSM_H1H2_1980-2020_EURPFM_complete.pkl ii. 2D_DCSM-FM_A03_FES2014_GTSM_H1H2_1980-2020_astro_EURPFM_complete.pkl iii. 2D_DCSM-FM_A03_FES2014_GTSM_H1H2_1980-2020_noTide_noTGF_EURPFM_complete.pkl References: F. Zijl and J. Groenenboom. Development of a sixth-generation model for the NW European Shelf (DCSM-FM 0.5nm). Technical report, Deltares, 2019. Available online at: https: //publications.deltares.nl/11203715_004.pdf (accessed July 18, 2022). F. Zijl, M. Verlaan, and H. Gerritsen. Improved water-level forecasting for the northwest european shelf and north sea through direct modeling of tide, surge and non-linear interaction. Ocean Dynam., 63(7):823–847, 2013. ISSN 1616-7228. doi: 10.1007/s10236-013-0624-2. F. Zijl, J. Sumihar, and M. Verlaan. Application of data assimilation for improved operational water level forecasting on the northwest European shelf and north sea. Ocean Dynam., 65(12): 1699–1716, 2015. ISSN 1616-7228. doi: 10.1007/s10236-015-0898-7. L. Carr`ere, F. Lyard, M. Cancet, A. Guillot, and L. Roblou. FES2012: A New Global Tidal Model Taking Advantage of Nearly 20 Years of Altimetry. In L. Ouwehand, editor, 20 Years of Progress in Radar Altimetry, volume 710 of ESA Special Publication, page 13, Sept. 2013. H. Hersbach, B. Bell, P. Berrisford, S. Hirahara, A. Hor ́anyi, J. Mu ̃noz-Sabater, J. Nicolas, C. Peubey, R. Radu, D. Schepers, et al. The ERA5 global reanalysis. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146(730):1999–2049, 2020. doi: 10.1002/qj.3803. J. J. Leendertse. Aspects of a Computational Model for Long-period Water-wave Propagation. Rand Corporation for the United States Air Force Project Rand, 1967. LEGOS/CNRS/CLS. Dynamic atmospheric correction, 1992. URL https://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/data/products/auxiliary-products/dynamic-atmospheric-correction.html. G. S. Stelling. On the construction of computational methods for shallow water flow problems. PhD thesis, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 1984. Rijkswaterstaat Communications 35. </p

Tide-surge, tide and surge simulations output of 2D DCSM-FM v7 from 1980 to 2020 at Euro platform.

This dataset includes results of hydrodynamic simulations for Euro platform, an offshore structure located in the southern North Sea that serves as a beacon for shipping and a measurement platform for the location. The results were generated with the 2D Dutch Continental Shelf Model - Flexible Mesh (DCSM, [Zijl and Groenenboom, 2019]), the successor of the version in Zijl et al. [2013,2015]. The model describes the tide-surge water level variability for the northwest European continental shelf between 15◦W to 13◦E and 43◦N to 64◦N by solving the depth-integrated shallow-water equations for hydrodynamic modeling of free-surface flows [Leendertse, 1967, Stelling, 1984]. Water level conditions are applied at the northern, western, and southern open boundaries. When modeling the tide-surge water levels, they are composed of the sum of the astronomical water levels and the surge. The tides are obtained from a harmonic expansion of 32 tidal constituents retrieved from the global ocean tide model FES2012 [Carr`ere et al., 2013] supplemented with the solar annual Sa constituent obtained from an earlier version of the model. The surge at the open boundaries is approximated by the time- and space-dependent inverse barometer correction. A smaller part of the tides is generated from the tidal potential within the model domain. When included, time- and space-varying atmospheric wind and pressure forcings are obtained from the ECMWF’s ERA5 reanalysis dataset [Hersbach et al., 2020]. In our simulations, we force the model by i) both tidal and meteorological (i.e., atmospheric wind and pressure) forcing, ii) tidal forcing only, and iii) meteorological forcing only. This enumeration also relates to the files included and described below.  The files included are:  i. 2D_DCSM-FM_A03_FES2014_GTSM_H1H2_1980-2020_EURPFM_complete.pkl ii. 2D_DCSM-FM_A03_FES2014_GTSM_H1H2_1980-2020_astro_EURPFM_complete.pkl iii. 2D_DCSM-FM_A03_FES2014_GTSM_H1H2_1980-2020_noTide_noTGF_EURPFM_complete.pkl References: F. Zijl and J. Groenenboom. Development of a sixth-generation model for the NW European Shelf (DCSM-FM 0.5nm). Technical report, Deltares, 2019. Available online at: https: //publications.deltares.nl/11203715_004.pdf (accessed July 18, 2022). F. Zijl, M. Verlaan, and H. Gerritsen. Improved water-level forecasting for the northwest european shelf and north sea through direct modeling of tide, surge and non-linear interaction. Ocean Dynam., 63(7):823–847, 2013. ISSN 1616-7228. doi: 10.1007/s10236-013-0624-2. F. Zijl, J. Sumihar, and M. Verlaan. Application of data assimilation for improved operational water level forecasting on the northwest European shelf and north sea. Ocean Dynam., 65(12): 1699–1716, 2015. ISSN 1616-7228. doi: 10.1007/s10236-015-0898-7. L. Carr`ere, F. Lyard, M. Cancet, A. Guillot, and L. Roblou. FES2012: A New Global Tidal Model Taking Advantage of Nearly 20 Years of Altimetry. In L. Ouwehand, editor, 20 Years of Progress in Radar Altimetry, volume 710 of ESA Special Publication, page 13, Sept. 2013. H. Hersbach, B. Bell, P. Berrisford, S. Hirahara, A. Hor ́anyi, J. Mu ̃noz-Sabater, J. Nicolas, C. Peubey, R. Radu, D. Schepers, et al. The ERA5 global reanalysis. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146(730):1999–2049, 2020. doi: 10.1002/qj.3803. J. J. Leendertse. Aspects of a Computational Model for Long-period Water-wave Propagation. Rand Corporation for the United States Air Force Project Rand, 1967. LEGOS/CNRS/CLS. Dynamic atmospheric correction, 1992. URL https://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/data/products/auxiliary-products/dynamic-atmospheric-correction.html. G. S. Stelling. On the construction of computational methods for shallow water flow problems. PhD thesis, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 1984. Rijkswaterstaat Communications 35. </p