Financial sector and economic growth in the Republic of Croatia 1995-2005

Financial sector in the Republic of Croatia had a strong growth between 1995 2005.g. Liberalization of financial sector in 1999 led to an increase in bank foreign debt, which resulted in a strong increase in foreign currency reserves and appreciation of the national currency. The growth of the financial sector and credit expansion have been allocated in favour of private and public consumption, but not in industry investments. GDP growth didn't have the same momentum as financial aggregates. Economic growth, after a contraction in 1999 was within the average of global economic growth. Relying on neoclassical growth model, government and central bank didn't put in place the needed set of pro-active policies. Factor allocation was solely through private bank channels financing private consumption. If the sustainable economic growth and new employment are to be major macroeconomic goals, a new macroeconomic paradigm as combination of neclassical and neokeynesians approach will be needed

On the lease rate, convenience yield and speculative effects in the gold futures market

By examining data on the gold forward offered rate (GOFO) and lease rates over the period 1996- 2009, we conclude that the convenience yield of gold is better approximated by the lease rate than the interest-adjusted spread of Fama & French (1983). Using the latter quantity, we study the relationship between gold leasing and the level of COMEX discretionary inventory and exhibit that lease rates are negatively related to inventories. We also show that Futures prices have increasingly exceeded forward prices over the period, and this effect increases with the speculative pressure and the maturity of the contracts

A hyperbolic model of optimal cash balances

We develop a hyperbolic cash management model based on the Pearson Type IV probability density which minimises extreme variations in firm cash balances. Since the moments for the Type IV probability density are in general undefined and maximum likelihood estimation is compromised by the non-algebraic nature of the Type IV normalising constant, parameter estimation is implemented using the minimum method. Empirical analysis shows that the Type IV density is highly compatible with the quarterly cash flow data of a randomly selected sample of 100 large U.S. corporations. In contrast, around 60% of the 100 corporations return Jarque–Bera test statistics which are incompatible with the Gaussian probability density

Science and Ideology in Economic, Political, and Social Thought

This paper has two sources: One is my own research in three broad areas: business cycles, economic measurement and social choice. In all of these fields I attempted to apply the basic precepts of the scientific method as it is understood in the natural sciences. I found that my effort at using natural science methods in economics was met with little understanding and often considerable hostility. I found economics to be driven less by common sense and empirical evidence, then by various ideologies that exhibited either a political or a methodological bias, or both. This brings me to the second source: Several books have appeared recently that describe in historical terms the ideological forces that have shaped either the direct areas in which I worked, or a broader background. These books taught me that the ideological forces in the social sciences are even stronger than I imagined on the basis of my own experiences. The scientific method is the antipode to ideology. I feel that the scientific work that I have done on specific, long standing and fundamental problems in economics and political science have given me additional insights into the destructive role of ideology beyond the history of thought orientation of the works I will be discussing

Evidence and Ideology in Macroeconomics: The Case of Investment Cycles

The paper reports the principal findings of a long term research project on the description and explanation of business cycles. The research strongly confirmed the older view that business cycles have large systematic components that take the form of investment cycles. These quasi-periodic movements can be represented as low order, stochastic, dynamic processes with complex eigenvalues. Specifically, there is a fixed investment cycle of about 8 years and an inventory cycle of about 4 years. Maximum entropy spectral analysis was employed for the description of the cycles and continuous time econometrics for the explanatory models. The central explanatory mechanism is the second order accelerator, which incorporates adjustment costs both in relation to the capital stock and the rate of investment. By means of parametric resonance it was possible to show, both theoretically and empirically how cycles aggregate from the micro to the macro level. The same mathematical tool was also used to explain the international convergence of cycles. I argue that the theory of investment cycles was abandoned for ideological, not for evidential reasons. Methodological issues are also discussed

From Vampire to Apollo: William Blake's Ghosts of the Flea (c. 1819-20)

Varley’s Zodiacal Physiognomy and Blake’s Visionary Heads are the two mainstays of a project which involved séance-like meetings at Varley’s house. While the lights were still on, Varley’s guests would have listened to the stories about the flea. With The Ghost of a Flea in front of them, the recitals of the flea’s pompous speeches, combined with the fact that it was just a ghost who leered after human blood, Varley’s guests may have laughed very heartily, if not in front of him then behind his back. Each evening followed the same protocol. When the lights were off, Varley would call out a name and Blake would look around, suddenly exclaiming ‘There he is!’ and start drawing. The flea is the most striking of the Visionary Heads, though it is not the only head which exists in different versions. If appearance is elemental to any kind of judgement of one human being of another, then Blake deliberately confused Varley. By working up the sketch, he played on Varley’s expectations; he presented him with an extraordinary and very puzzling painting, The Ghost of a Flea. But why, if Blake could have chosen any monster, did he settle on the ghost of a flea

The Non-existence of the Labor Demand/Supply Diagram, and Other Theorems of Institutional Economics

The most famous and influential diagram in modern (neoclassical) labor economics is the model of wage determination by supply and demand. Using concepts and ideas from institutional economics, I argue that the theory of a perfectly competitive labor market is logically contradictory and, hence, the demand/supply diagram cannot exist on the plane of pure theory. Four other fundamental theorems concerning labor markets are also derived, as are implications about the theoretical foundation of the field of industrial relations and the economic evaluation of labor and employment policy. In this article I accomplish four things of significance. The first is to demonstrate that the core diagram of neoclassical labor economics - the diagram of wage determination by demand and supply (D/S) - does not have logical coherence and thus has no existence on the plane of pure theory. The second is to deduce this conclusion using a core concept of institutional economics (i.e., transaction cost), thus demonstrating that the institutional approach to labor economics has theoretical explanatory power. The third is to use the transaction cost idea to also deduce four fundamental theorems concerning labor markets and wage determination. The fourth is to identify the core theoretical foundation of the field of industrial relations. This discussion also yields important implications for the economic evaluation of labor and employment policy, as well as interesting insights on the history of thought in labor economics. Working Paper 07-2