Prospective Prediction of Juvenile Homicide/Attempted Homicide among Early-Onset Juvenile Offenders

While homicide perpetrated by juveniles is a relatively rare occurrence, between 2010 and 2014, approximately 7%–8% of all murders involved a juvenile offender. Unfortunately, few studies have prospectively examined the predictors of homicide offending, with none examining first-time murder among a sample of adjudicated male and female youth. The current study employed data on 5908 juvenile offenders (70% male, 45% Black) first arrested at the age of 12 or younger to prospectively examine predictors of an arrest for homicide/attempted homicide by the age of 18. Among these early-onset offenders, males, Black youth, those living in households with family members with a history of mental illness, those engaging in self-mutilation, and those with elevated levels of anger/aggression (all measured by age 13) were more likely to be arrested for homicide/attempted homicide by age 18. These findings add to the scant scientific literature on the predictors of homicide, and illustrate potential avenues for intervention

Adverse Childhood Experiences Distinguish Violent Juvenile Sexual Offenders’ Victim Typologies

Juvenile perpetrators account for over 25% of all sexual offenses, and over one-third of such offenses are against victims under the age of 18. Given empirical connections between adverse childhood experience (ACE) exposure and perpetration of violence, we create victim typologies based on the juveniles’ relationship to their victims among 5539 justice-involved adolescents who have committed violent against-person sexual felonies. Multinomial logistic regression is used to assess which covariates, including individual ACE exposures and cumulative traumatic exposures, are associated with victim typologies. This approach allows for better targeting of violence prevention efforts, as a more nuanced understanding of the increased likelihood to victimize specific victim groups lends to potential differences in treatment provision, beyond simplistic findings regarding ACE exposure increasing offending. Results indicate five classes of victim types, ranging from a low of 6.4%, with primarily strangers as victims, to 31.3%, with predominately acquaintances as victims, and only 12.9% with a diverse array of relationships to victims. Importantly, many demographic and individual risk factors, and specific traumatic exposures were related to victimizing one’s sibling, while cumulative trauma as measured by an ACE score decreased the likelihood of victimizing classmates, while increasing the likelihood of victimizing siblings and other relatives compared to victimizing acquaintances

Weird Winter Weather in the Anthropocene: How Volatile Temperatures Shape Violent Crime

Purpose: Current evidence suggests volatile temperatures are becoming more common because of climate change and can be expected to become even more frequent in the future. By focusing on recent temperature variability, we attempt to estimate one important dimension of the impact of climate change on violent crime. We also explore whether sudden upward temperature anomalies have stronger positive impacts on violent crime in the coldest months of the year, as routine activities are likely to change more drastically during this period. Methods: This study explores the association between sudden temperature anomalies (both upward and downward) and the daily incidence of homicide, robbery, and aggravated assault in 28 U.S. cities from 2015 to 2021 using multivariable two-way fixed-effects negative binomial panel regression models. Results: We find that temperature volatility is significantly associated with the incidence of violence. Upward departures in temperature are associated with increases in robbery and homicide, while downward departures are associated in the opposite direction. These associations are more robust in winter, with unexpectedly warmer winter weather associated with larger increases in robbery. Conclusions: Results support the hypotheses and routine activities theory. We discuss the findings in the context of the under-explored criminological consequences of climate change

Dynamic Risk Trajectories, Community Context, and Juvenile Recidivism

Purpose While the implementation of risk assessment has expanded, the extent to which there are different trajectories of risk/protective factors among adjudicated youth during supervision in the community remains unanswered. The goal of the current study is to identify the distinct trajectories in dynamic risk and protective factors among youth on probation and assess whether different patterns in risk over time are associated with continued offending. Method Group-based trajectory modeling is used to identify distinct trajectories across multiple domains of risk/need. The individual- and neighborhood-level factors associated with these trajectories are then explored, prior to examining their relationship to continued delinquency. Results Results suggest that a sizable combination of risk/needs trajectories exist among youth on probation. These distinct trajectories are differentially associated with individual and neighborhood characteristics. A select number of trajectories also appear to be indicative of continued offending post-completion of community supervision. Conclusions Information regarding the evolving nature of juvenile risk/needs during supervision is critically important to reduce incarceration, flatten the age-crime curve, and ensure public safety. Findings have implications for the use of dynamic risk assessment among youth on probation as well as juvenile recidivism research more generally

Multiply Folded Graphene

The folding of paper, hide, and woven fabric has been used for millennia to achieve enhanced articulation, curvature, and visual appeal for intrinsically flat, two-dimensional materials. For graphene, an ideal two-dimensional material, folding may transform it to complex shapes with new and distinct properties. Here, we present experimental results that folded structures in graphene, termed grafold, exist, and their formations can be controlled by introducing anisotropic surface curvature during graphene synthesis or transfer processes. Using pseudopotential-density functional theory calculations, we also show that double folding modifies the electronic band structure of graphene. Furthermore, we demonstrate the intercalation of C60 into the grafolds. Intercalation or functionalization of the chemically reactive folds further expands grafold's mechanical, chemical, optical, and electronic diversity.Comment: 29 pages, 10 figures (accepted in Phys. Rev. B

The Effect of Program Staffing Difficulties on Changes in Dynamic Risk and Reoffending among Juvenile Offenders in Residential Placement

Recently there has been growing concern regarding the staffing challenges that plague the U.S. correctional system. This study examines whether staffing challenges within residential facilities are associated with changes in dynamic risk and the likelihood of reoffending among a sample of serious juvenile offenders returning to the community from residential placement. Using administrative data on 2,022 youth who completed a court-imposed placement, in combination with information drawn from a provider’s human resources database, we employ several analytical techniques to untangle the effects of staffing difficulties on youth outcomes. Results indicate that the rate of unscheduled absences was associated with changes in dynamic risk and the duration of placement. Absences were also related to recidivism prior to accounting for changes in dynamic risk and length of stay, suggesting a more complex interrelationship between facility staffing challenges and youth outcomes. Implications for policy and future research are discussed

A Statewide Analysis of the Impact of Restitution and Fees on Juvenile Recidivism in Florida Across Race & Ethnicity

Whether the imposition of monetary sanctions is related to juvenile recidivism is explored overall and across race and ethnicity. Leveraging a statewide sample, logistic regression was used to predict fees and restitution assignment based on youth/case characteristics, hierarchical linear and logistic random-effects regression examined the association between neighborhood characteristics with fees and restitution, and propensity score matching examined whether fees and/or restitution are related to reoffending. No race/ethnic differences were found in the proportion of youth receiving court fees, yet when fees were administered both black and Hispanic youth received higher fees. Neighborhood characteristics have minimal impact on whether (or the amounts) monetary sanctions were assigned. Post-matching, fees increased recidivism, as did being black or Hispanic. Interactions between race/ethnicity and both fees and restitution showed black youth with restitution had a higher recidivism likelihood. Monetary sanctions imposed on youth involved in the juvenile justice system has a potential deleterious impact on recidivism

Adherence to the Street Code Predicts an Earlier Anticipated Death

Objective: Criminologists have long been interested in the relationship between subcultural attitudes and antisocial behavior, with Anderson’s street code thesis being the most recent and often researched foray in this area. Relatedly, scholars have begun to investigate the risk factors associated with the anticipation of early death. Extant research, however, has yet to empirically test Anderson’s hypothesis that subscription to the street code is predictive of an anticipated early death. This study contributes to the literatures on the street code as well as fatalism by investigating the link between these two constructs. Method: Using data from a sample of serious youthful offenders, we examine whether street code values are related to the anticipation of a short lifespan using a number of multivariate regression techniques controlling for a range of individual- and community-level variables. Results: Results show adherence to the street code is significantly associated with an anticipated early death among the sample of delinquent youth. Further, the relationship between street code and anticipated early death holds across race/ethnicity and gender, and results are not sensitive to the measurement of an anticipated early death. Findings from the current research are discussed, along with implications for policy and future research

Hostile, quick-tempered, and exposed to dangerous environments: Exploring the link between temperament and street code adherence

Although Elijah Anderson’s (1999) code of the street thesis has received a great deal of scholarly attention, fewer studies have examined the characteristics associated with its adoption. Existing evidence is supportive of Anderson’s initial observations, however, less is known about the association between personality and emotional characteristics and adopting street code norms. The current study assesses the role of Delisi and Vaughn’s difficult temperament index in the adoption of the street code among a sample of juvenile justice-involved youth. Results indicated youth with more difficult temperaments, characterized by lower levels of effortful control and higher levels of negative emotionality, were more likely to report greater street code adherence. Implications for juvenile justice policy and future research are discussed

Effectiveness of The Cure Violence Model in New York City

New research from the John Jay College Research & Evaluation Center (JohnJayREC) suggests that the Cure Violence strategy may effectively reduce the incidence of homicide. Researchers at John Jay worked with analysts at the New York Police Department (NYPD) to assemble information about violence in New York City neighborhoods and compared areas with and without Cure Violence programs. The analysis focused on programs in three areas: two in Brooklyn and one in Manhattan. All three areas were operating Cure Violence programs as of 2010, and homicides were tracked through 2013. When the study compared homicide rates in those areas with a matched comparison group of neighborhoods in New York, the presence of the Cure Violence programs was associated with an 18 percent drop between 2010 and 2013, while homicides in the comparison areas were 69 percent higher in 2013 than in 2010