Post Covid Era: Future of Economies and World Order An Interdisciplinary Approach

The COVID-19 pandemic, which affected the world in 2020, significantly impacted the food and agriculture sectors. Production in the agricultural industry has been negatively affected, and food supply chains have been disrupted. Examining the consequences of the pandemic on the food and agriculture industries has become a major area of study for these reasons. Since prices are one of the most significant economic indicators, this book chapter examined the impact of the pandemic on the food and agriculture sector using price data. The primary objective of the book chapter is to assess the effects of COVID-19 on food prices in Turkey and to choose the most appropriate model for future price forecasting. Turkey's consumer price index for food and soft drinks and producer price index for food were used as data to evaluate the effect. The Box-Jenkins approach was utilized to forecast future periods of food inflation. Following the methodology mentioned above, the data period began before the pandemic. While the 2017m07-2021m08 period was determined as the estimation sample, the 2021m09-2021m11 period was determined as the forecast sample. The findings indicate that the ARIMA (0,1,1) model is Turkey's most accurate predictor of food inflation. According to the results, it is anticipated that food prices in Turkey will continue to rise

Economic and Financial Analysis of Global and National Developments

In this book chapter, in addition to examining the link between exports andemployment by concentrating on bidirectional causality rather than one-way causality, the economic growth variable was also included in the model. The aim of this book chapter is examining the causal relationship between employment, exports, and economic growth in the USA from 1990 to 2019. The estimation results are analyzed using the Johansen cointegration test, the Granger causality test based on the vector error correction model (VECM), theimpulse-response function, and variance decomposition. One of the chapter's key goals is to establish the short- and long-term effects of exports and economic growth proxied by GDP on employment. Employment is therefore considered as an endogenous variable. Exports, employment, and GDP data belonging to 1990-2019 period are collected from World Bank. The USA was chosen for the analysis since it is one of the most developed exporting countries in the world, and the time interval is adjusted to encompass the 30 years preceding the last time data are available. The effects of the exports increase on employment were searched with the input-output analyses at the industrial or firm levels in many studies. This study measures the effect of exports on employment in USA by also using the GDP data as a proxy of the economic growth. In this book chapter the data were analyzed by using the methods of time series analysis. Granger causality analysis indicates the existence of causality running from exportsand GDP to employment in the long run. In addition, it was discovered that both export and GDP have a negative and significant effect on employment separately in the long term. In the short run, only the existence of unidirectional Granger causality between GDP and employment was found to be statistically significant. In the short run, only the existence of unidirectional Granger causality between GDP and employment was found to be statistically significant. The GDP has a negative long-run impact on employment but a positive short run impact. According to the IRF, GDP shocks have a significant and positive effect on employment that lasts for six periods. Export shocks appeared to have no impact on employment. The results of variance decomposition reveal that while GDP contributes significantly to employment changes in the short run, on the other hand in the long run exports contribute significantly more. The findings of the study are not consistent with traditional international trade theories, but they are consistent with recent findings

An Analysis of the COVID-19 Impact on Turkey's Food Sector

The COVID-19, which entered human lives unexpectedly and spread quickly, has resulted innumerous deaths, as well as has had a profound socio-economic impact on the entire world.The pandemic not only has had a significant negative impact on the economies of the countriesbut also resulted in several social and economic transformation for producers and consumersin various sectors. Changes in food supply and food prices became increasingly noticeablethroughout the pandemic period. Especially, during the periods of full lockdown, breakdowns wereidentified because of the interruption of economic activities. With shrinking labor markets anddisruptions in raw material supply as a result of the pandemic›s influence on trade, the food sector,which provides one of the most fundamental human necessities, has been severely impacted byCOVID-19. The current study examined the changes in food prices, food trade, and the labor forcein Turkey throughout the pandemic period using Turkish Statistical Institute data and comparedthe findings to the pre-COVID-19 period. Moreover, the trend of data was evaluated, as were theexistence of any breaks or changes that may have occurred in data during the full lockdownperiods. The conclusions are intended to provide a general framework for the current situation ofCOVID-19 in Turkey with regards to food prices and food trade and to offer policy recommendationsfor future periods. The conclusions of the study are expected to serve as a guide for policymakersand sector stakeholders