Violence and exodus in Kenya's Rift Valley, 2008: predictable and preventable?

This article offers a preliminary analysis of the outbreak of violence in the Rift Valley Province of Kenya, over January and February 2008, following the national elections of December 2007. Maps of the earliest phase of the violence are reproduced to illustrate the sequencing and location of conflict. The causes of the violence are explored through discussion of historical patterns of land settlement in the Rift Valley, the impact of political violence in key constituencies since the early 1990s, and more recent political contingencies around the question of constitutional reform and regionalism (majimboism). The violence of 2008 bore strong similarities to earlier episodes of conflict in the Rift Valley, and in that sense was predictable and might have been prevented. Though the December 2007 poll was the catalyst for this violence, its causes are to be found in deeper-rooted historical and political conflicts

Analysing low intensity conflict in Africa using press reports

En l’absence de sources fiables et non biaisées, les articles de presse peuvent servir à évaluer quelques causes de mortalité spécifiques, à condition qu’une analyse politique des relations entre la presse et le pouvoir politique soit parallèlement conduite. Testée sur des données recueillies dans un quotidien majeur du Kenya, la méthode proposée permet l’analyse géographique et historique des décès dus à la violence policière, aux violences communautaires et au banditisme. Elle permet en outre d’identifier les divergences entre les discours parus dans la presse sur l’insécurité et la violence politique, et la réalité des décès rapportés dans cette même presse.In the absence of reliable and unbiased sources in most African countries, press reports can serve to evaluate some specific causes of death, on condition that a political analysis of the relation between the press and the political power is conducted. Tested on data collected from a leading Kenyan newspaper, the method proposed here is used to conduct a historical and geographical analysis of deaths due to police violence, community clashes and banditry. It also helps to point out the discrepancies between the press discourses on insecurity and political violence, and the reality of deaths reported by the very same press.ou