Were Japanese Stock Prices Too High?

The difference between reported price-earnings ratios in the United States and Japan is not as puzzling as it appears at first glance. Nearly half the disparity is caused by differences in accounting practices with respect to consolidation of earnings from subsidiaries and depreciation of fixed assets. If Japanese firms used U.S. accounting rules, we estimate that the P/E ratio for the Tokyo Stock Exchange would have been 32.1, not the reported 54.3, at the end of 1988. Accounting differences are unable, however, to explain the sharp rise in the Japanese stock market during the mid-1980s. Changes in required returns on equities, or in investor expectations of future growth for Japanese firms, must be invoked to explain this phenomenon. Real interest rates declined during the period of rapid price increase, but there is little evidence that growth expectations became more optimistic. The real interest rate changes do not, however, appear large enough to fully account for the change in stock prices.

Investor Diversification and International Equity Markets

The benefits of international diversification have been recognized for decades. In spite of this, most investors hold nearly all of their wealth in domestic assets. In this paper, we construct new estimates of the international equity portfolio holdings of investors in the U.S., Japan, and Britain. More than 98% of the equity portfolio of Japanese investors is held domestically; the analogous percentages are 94% for the U.S., and 82% for Britain. We use a simple model of investor preferences and behavior to show that current portfolio patterns imply that investors in each nation expect returns in their domestic equity market to be several hundred basis points higher than returns in other markets. This lack of diversification appears to be the result of investor choices, rather than institutional constraints.

Joint Strong and Weak Lensing Analysis of the Massive Cluster Field J0850+3604

We present a combined strong and weak lensing analysis of the J085007.6+360428 (J0850) field, which was selected by its high projected concentration of luminous red galaxies and contains the massive cluster Zwicky 1953. Using Subaru/Suprime-Cam $BVR_{c}I_{c}i^{\prime}z^{\prime}$ imaging and MMT/Hectospec spectroscopy, we first perform a weak lensing shear analysis to constrain the mass distribution in this field, including the cluster at $z = 0.3774$ and a smaller foreground halo at $z = 0.2713$. We then add a strong lensing constraint from a multiply-imaged galaxy in the imaging data with a photometric redshift of $z \approx 5.03$. Unlike previous cluster-scale lens analyses, our technique accounts for the full three-dimensional mass structure in the beam, including galaxies along the line of sight. In contrast with past cluster analyses that use only lensed image positions as constraints, we use the full surface brightness distribution of the images. This method predicts that the source galaxy crosses a lensing caustic such that one image is a highly-magnified "fold arc", which could be used to probe the source galaxy's structure at ultra-high spatial resolution ($< 30$ pc). We calculate the mass of the primary cluster to be $\mathrm{M_{vir}} = 2.93_{-0.65}^{+0.71} \times 10^{15}~\mathrm{M_{\odot}}$ with a concentration of $\mathrm{c_{vir}} = 3.46_{-0.59}^{+0.70}$, consistent with the mass-concentration relation of massive clusters at a similar redshift. The large mass of this cluster makes J0850 an excellent field for leveraging lensing magnification to search for high-redshift galaxies, competitive with and complementary to that of well-studied clusters such as the HST Frontier Fields.Comment: Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal; 14 pages, 13 figures, 3 table

A Spectroscopic Survey of the Fields of 28 Strong Gravitational Lenses: Implications for H0H_0

Strong gravitational lensing provides an independent measurement of the Hubble parameter ($H_0$). One remaining systematic is a bias from the additional mass due to a galaxy group at the lens redshift or along the sightline. We quantify this bias for more than 20 strong lenses that have well-sampled sightline mass distributions, focusing on the convergence $\kappa$ and shear $\gamma$. In 23% of these fields, a lens group contributes a $\ge$1% convergence bias; in 57%, there is a similarly significant line-of-sight group. For the nine time delay lens systems, $H_0$ is overestimated by 11$^{+3}_{-2}$% on average when groups are ignored. In 67% of fields with total $\kappa \ge$ 0.01, line-of-sight groups contribute $\gtrsim 2\times$ more convergence than do lens groups, indicating that the lens group is not the only important mass. Lens environment affects the ratio of four (quad) to two (double) image systems; all seven quads have lens groups while only three of 10 doubles do, and the highest convergences due to lens groups are in quads. We calibrate the $\gamma$-$\kappa$ relation: $\log(\kappa_{\rm{tot}}) = (1.94 \pm 0.34) \log(\gamma_{\rm{tot}}) + (1.31 \pm 0.49)$ with a rms scatter of 0.34 dex. Shear, which, unlike convergence, can be measured directly from lensed images, can be a poor predictor of $\kappa$; for 19% of our fields, $\kappa$ is $\gtrsim 2\gamma$. Thus, accurate cosmology using strong gravitational lenses requires precise measurement and correction for all significant structures in each lens field.Comment: 34 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

CRYOGENIC UPPER STAGE SYSTEM SAFETY

NASA s Exploration Initiative will require development of many new systems or systems of systems. One specific example is that safe, affordable, and reliable upper stage systems to place cargo and crew in stable low earth orbit are urgently required. In this paper, we examine the failure history of previous upper stages with liquid oxygen (LOX)/liquid hydrogen (LH2) propulsion systems. Launch data from 1964 until midyear 2005 are analyzed and presented. This data analysis covers upper stage systems from the Ariane, Centaur, H-IIA, Saturn, and Atlas in addition to other vehicles. Upper stage propulsion system elements have the highest impact on reliability. This paper discusses failure occurrence in all aspects of the operational phases (Le., initial burn, coast, restarts, and trends in failure rates over time). In an effort to understand the likelihood of future failures in flight, we present timelines of engine system failures relevant to initial flight histories. Some evidence suggests that propulsion system failures as a result of design problems occur shortly after initial development of the propulsion system; whereas failures because of manufacturing or assembly processing errors may occur during any phase of the system builds process, This paper also explores the detectability of historical failures. Observations from this review are used to ascertain the potential for increased upper stage reliability given investments in integrated system health management. Based on a clear understanding of the failure and success history of previous efforts by multiple space hardware development groups, the paper will investigate potential improvements that can be realized through application of system safety principles

Detection of Incipient Pest Infestations on Glasshouse Crops Using Multispectral Imagery and a Common Vegetation Index

Research was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of multispectral (conventional color and color infrared) imagery and a common vegetation index (simple ratio) for detecting incipient infestations of spider mites (Tetranychus spp.; Acari: Tetranychidae) and false spider mites (Brevipalpus spp.; Acari: Tenupalpidae) on selected crops under glasshouse conditions. Although damaging infestations of both mite species were associated with intense feeding injury which was readily detectable by visual inspection, subtle levels of foliar damage caused by the two mite species were difficult to detect by visual inspection and were not readily distinguishable from undamaged (healthy) foliage in conventional color (CC) or color infrared (CIR) imagery. In contrast, foliage exhibiting subtle levels of mite feeding injury was readily distinguished from healthy foliage in derivative imagery based on the Simple Ratio (SR), a vegetation index defined as the ratio of near-infrared to red reflectance (700-1100 nm and 600-700 nm, respectively) for each pixel in the imagery. CIR and SR images were shown to be considerably more effective than CC imagery in the initial detection and subsequent monitoring of a spider mite infestation on glasshouse cucumbers which increased from incipient to annihilative levels within a period of approximately six weeks. The rationale for and potential uses of CC, CIR, and derivative imagery based on SR and other vegetative indices for monitoring pest infestations on glasshouse crops are discussed

Detecting Stress in Glasshouse Plants Using Color Infrared Imagery: A Potential New Application for Remote Sensing

English: Studies were conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of color infrared (CIR) film for detecting physiological stress in plants located within glasshouse structures. Spectroradiometer measurements obtained within and outside of a structure constructed of polycarbonate plastic indicated no significant attenuation or disruption of visible and near-infrared radiation entering the structure. CIR photographs of cucumber seedlings (Cucumis sativus) obtained within the greenhouse were comparable in quality to those obtained outside the structure, and clearly distinguished between foliage of healthy plants and those subjected to a moderate level of nitrogen stress. In CIR imagery of a trifoliate orange tree (Poncirus trifoliata (L.) Raf.) obtained within a greenhouse constructed of yellow fiberglass panels, leaves damaged by citrus red mites (Panonychus citri [McGregor]) were distinguishable from healthy foliage, and the distribution of damaged leaves on the tree itself was clearly evident. These results suggest that remote sensing techniques which have been used successfully to monitor conventional field crops are readily extendable to the commercial glasshouse environment with certain modifications. Spanish: Se condujeron estudios para evaluar la eficacia de la película infrarroja de color (CIR) para detectar el estrés fisiológico en las plantas situadas dentro de un invernadero. Las mediciones del spectroradiómetro obtenidas dentro y fuera de un invernadero construido con plástico de policarbonato no indicaron ninguna atenuación o interrupción significativa de la radiación visible y del cercano infrarrojo que penetraba al invernadero. Las fotografías con CIR de las plantas de semillero de pepino (Cucumis sativus) obtenidas dentro del invernadero fueron comparables en calidad a aquellas obtenidas fuera de este, y distinguieron claramente entre el follaje de plantas sanas y de aquellas sometidas a un nivel moderado de estrés de nitrógeno. En imágenes de CIR de un naranjo trifoliado (Poncirus trifoliata (L.) Raf.) obtenidas dentro de un invernadero construido de paneles amarillos de fibra de vidrio, las hojas dañadas por el ácaro rojo de los cítricos (Panonychus citri [McGregor]) se distinguieron del follaje sano, y la distribución de hojas dañadas en el árbol mismo fueron claramente evidentes. Estos resultados sugieren que las técnicas de detección a distancia que se han utilizado con éxito para supervisar campos de cultivo convencionales, también pueden usarse fácilmente, con algunas modificaciones, en cultivos comerciales en invernadero

Evidence of Resistance to Cry34/35Ab1 Corn by Western Corn Rootworm (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae): Root Injury in the Field and Larval Survival in Plant-Based Bioassays

Western corn rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera LeConte (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), is a serious pest of corn in the United States, and recent management of western corn rootworm has included planting of Bt corn. Beginning in 2009, western corn rootworm populations with resistance to Cry3Bb1 corn and mCry3A corn were found in Iowa and elsewhere. To date, western corn rootworm populations have remained susceptible to corn producing Bt toxin Cry34/35Ab1. In this study, we used single-plant bioassays to test field populations of western corn rootworm for resistance to Cry34/35Ab1 corn, Cry3Bb1 corn, and mCry3A corn. Bioassays included nine rootworm populations collected from fields where severe injury to Bt corn had been observed and six control populations that had never been exposed to Bt corn. We found incomplete resistance to Cry34/35Ab1 corn among field populations collected from fields where severe injury to corn producing Cry34/35Ab1, either singly or as a pyramid, had been observed. Additionally, resistance to Cry3Bb1 corn and mCry3A corn was found among the majority of populations tested. These first cases of resistance to Cry34/35Ab1 corn, and the presence of resistance to multiple Bt toxins by western corn rootworm, highlight the potential vulnerability of Bt corn to the evolution of resistance by western corn rootworm. The use of more diversified management practices, in addition to insect resistance management, likely will be essential to sustain the viability of Bt corn for management of western corn rootworm