Rapid evolution in introduced species, ‘invasive traits’ and recipient communities: challenges for predicting invasive potential

The damaging effects of invasive organisms have triggered the development of Invasive Species Predictive Schemes (ISPS). These schemes evaluate biological and historical characteristics of species and prioritize those that should be the focus of exclusion, quarantine, and/or control. However, it is not clear how commonly these schemes take microevolutionary considerations into account. We review the recent literature and find that rapid evolutionary changes are common during invasions. These evolutionary changes include rapid adaptation of invaders to new environments, effects of hybridization, and evolution in recipient communities. Strikingly, we document 38 species in which the specific traits commonly associated with invasive potential (e.g. growth rate, dispersal ability, generation time) have themselves undergone evolutionary change following introduction, in some cases over very short (≤ 10 year) timescales. In contrast, our review of 29 ISPS spanning plant, animal, and microbial taxa shows that the majority (76%) envision invading species and recipient communities as static entities. Those that incorporate evolutionary considerations do so in a limited way. Evolutionary change not only affects the predictive power of these schemes, but also complicates their evaluation. We argue that including the evolutionary potential of species and communities in ISPS is overdue, present several metrics related to evolutionary potential that could be incorporated in ISPS, and provide suggestions for further research on these metrics and their performance. Finally, we argue that the fact of evolutionary change during invasions begs for added caution during risk assessment

A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix

This paper describes a simple method of calculating a heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix that is positive semi-definite by construction. It also establishes consistency of the estimated covariance matrix under fairly general conditions.

Measurement of Antioxidant Activity toward Superoxide in Natural Waters

Antioxidants are a class of molecules that provide a protective function against reactive oxygen species (ROS) in biological systems by out competing physiologically important molecules for ROS oxidation. In natural waters, the reactivity of antioxidants gives an estimate of oxidative stress and may determine the reactivity and distribution of reactive oxidants. We present an analytical method to measure antioxidant activity in natural waters through the competition between ascorbic acid, an antioxidant, and MCLA, a chemiluminescent probe for superoxide. A numerical kinetic model of the analytical method has been developed to optimize analytical performance. Measurements of antioxidant concentrations in pure and seawater are possible with detection limits below 0.1 nM. Surface seawater samples collected at solar noon contained over 0.4 nM of antioxidants and exhibited first-order decay with a half-life of 3-7 minutes, consistent with a reactive species capable of scavenging photochemically produced superoxide

Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation

We propose a nonparametric method for automatically selecting the number of autocovariances to use in computing a heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix. For a given kernel for weighting the autocovariances, we prove that our procedure is asymptotically equivalent to one that is optimal under a mean squared error loss function. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that our procedure performs tolerably well, although it does result in size distortions.

Can Reflection from Grains Diagnose the Albedo?

By radiation transfer models with a realistic power spectra of the projected density distributions, we show that the optical properties of grains are poorly constrained by observations of reflection nebulae. The ISM is known to be hierarchically clumped from a variety of observations (molecules, H I, far-infrared). Our models assume the albedo and phase parameter of the dust, the radial optical depth of the sphere averaged over all directions, and random distributions of the dust within the sphere. The outputs are the stellar extinction, optical depth, and flux of scattered light as seen from various viewing angles. Observations provide the extinction and scattered flux from a particular direction. Hierarchical geometry has a large effect on the flux of scattered light emerging from a nebula for a particular extinction of the exciting star. There is a very large spread in both scattered fluxes and extinctions for any distribution of dust. Consequently, an observed stellar extinction and scattered flux can be fitted by a wide range of albedos. With hierarchical geometry it is not completely safe to determine even relative optical constants from multiwavelength observations of the same reflection nebula. The geometry effectively changes with wavelength as the opacity of the clumps varies. Limits on the implications of observing the same object in various wavelengths are discussed briefly. Henry (2002) uses a recipe to determine the scattered flux from a star with a given extinction. It is claimed to be independent of the geometry. It provides considerably more scattering than our models, probably leading to an underestimate of the grain albedos from the UV Diffuse Galactic Light.Comment: 27 pages, including 7 figures. Accepted by Ap

Predicting Changes in Bee Assemblages Following State Transitions at North American Dryland Ecotones

Drylands worldwide are experiencing ecosystem state transitions: the expansion of some ecosystem types at the expense of others. Bees in drylands are particularly abundant and diverse, with potential for large compositional differences and seasonal turnover across ecotones. To better understand how future ecosystem state transitions may influence bees, we compared bee assemblages and their seasonality among sites at the Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge (NM, USA) that represent three dryland ecosystem types (and two ecotones) of the southwestern U.S. (Plains grassland, Chihuahuan Desert grassland, and Chihuahuan Desert shrubland). Using passive traps, we caught bees during two-week intervals from March–October, 2002–2014. The resulting dataset included 302 bee species and 56 genera. Bee abundance, composition, and diversity differed among ecosystems, indicating that future state transitions could alter bee assemblage composition in our system. We found strong seasonal bee species turnover, suggesting that bee phenological shifts may accompany state transitions. Common species drove the observed trends, and both specialist and generalist bee species were indicators of ecosystem types or months; these species could be sentinels of community-wide responses to future shifts. Our work suggests that predicting the consequences of global change for bee assemblages requires accounting for both within-year and among-ecosystem variation

2-D Radiative Transfer in Protostellar Envelopes: I. Effects of Geometry on Class I Sources

We present 2-D radiation transfer models of Class I Protostars and show the effect of including more realistic geometries on the resulting spectral energy distributions and images. We begin with a rotationally flattened infalling envelope as our comparison model, and add a flared disk and bipolar cavity. The disk affects the spectral energy distribution most strongly at edge-on inclinations, causing a broad dip at about 10 um (independent of the silicate feature) due to high extinction and low scattering albedo in this wavelength region. The bipolar cavities allow more direct stellar+disk radiation to emerge into polar directions, and more scattering radiation to emerge into all directions. The wavelength-integrated flux, often interpreted as luminosity, varies with viewing angle, with pole-on viewing angles seeing 2-4 times as much flux as edge-on, depending on geometry. Thus, observational estimates of luminosity should take into account the inclination of a source. The envelopes with cavities are significantly bluer in near-IR and mid-IR color-color plots than those without cavities. Using 1-D models to interpret Class I sources with bipolar cavities would lead to an underestimate of envelope mass and an overestimate of the implied evolutionary state. We compute images at near-, mid-, and far-IR wavelengths. We find that the mid-IR colors and images are sensitive to scattering albedo, and that the flared disk shadows the midplane on large size scales at all wavelengths plotted. Finally, our models produce polarization spectra which can be used to diagnose dust properties, such as albedo variations due to grain growth. Our results of polarization across the 3.1 um ice feature agree well with observations for ice mantles covering 5% of the radius of the grains.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ, 37 pages, 13 figures (several figures reduced in quality; find original version at http://gemelli.colorado.edu/~bwhitney/preprints.html

High-resolution Near-Infrared Images and Models of the Circumstellar Disk in HH 30

We present Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Near-Infrared Camera and Multi-object Spectrometer (NICMOS) observations of the reflection nebulosity associated with the T Tauri star HH 30. The images show the scattered light pattern characteristic of a highly inclined, optically thick disk with a prominent dustlane whose width decreases with increasing wavelength. The reflected nebulosity exhibits a lateral asymmetry in the upper lobe on the opposite side to that reported in previously published Wide Field Planetary Camera 2 (WFPC2) images. The radiation transfer model which most closely reproduces the data has a flared accretion disk with dust grains larger than standard interstellar medium grains by a factor of approximately 2.1. A single hotspot on the stellar surface provides the necessary asymmetry to fit the images and is consistent with previous modeling of the light curve and images. Photometric analysis results in an estimated extinction of Av>~80; however, since the photometry measures only scattered light rather than direct stellar flux, this a lower limit. The radiative transfer models require an extinction of Av = 7,900.Comment: Accepted for publication in Ap.