INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT STRATEGY

Information Systems Working Papers Serie

Modelling monsoons: understanding and predicting current and future behaviour

The global monsoon system is so varied and complex that understanding and predicting its diverse behaviour remains a challenge that will occupy modellers for many years to come. Despite the difficult task ahead, an improved monsoon modelling capability has been realized through the inclusion of more detailed physics of the climate system and higher resolution in our numerical models. Perhaps the most crucial improvement to date has been the development of coupled ocean-atmosphere models. From subseasonal to interdecadal time scales, only through the inclusion of air-sea interaction can the proper phasing and teleconnections of convection be attained with respect to sea surface temperature variations. Even then, the response to slow variations in remote forcings (e.g., El Niño—Southern Oscillation) does not result in a robust solution, as there are a host of competing modes of variability that must be represented, including those that appear to be chaotic. Understanding the links between monsoons and land surface processes is not as mature as that explored regarding air-sea interactions. A land surface forcing signal appears to dominate the onset of wet season rainfall over the North American monsoon region, though the relative role of ocean versus land forcing remains a topic of investigation in all the monsoon systems. Also, improved forecasts have been made during periods in which additional sounding observations are available for data assimilation. Thus, there is untapped predictability that can only be attained through the development of a more comprehensive observing system for all monsoon regions. Additionally, improved parameterizations - for example, of convection, cloud, radiation, and boundary layer schemes as well as land surface processes - are essential to realize the full potential of monsoon predictability. A more comprehensive assessment is needed of the impact of black carbon aerosols, which may modulate that of other anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Dynamical considerations require ever increased horizontal resolution (probably to 0.5 degree or higher) in order to resolve many monsoon features including, but not limited to, the Mei-Yu/Baiu sudden onset and withdrawal, low-level jet orientation and variability, and orographic forced rainfall. Under anthropogenic climate change many competing factors complicate making robust projections of monsoon changes. Absent aerosol effects, increased land-sea temperature contrast suggests strengthened monsoon circulation due to climate change. However, increased aerosol emissions will reflect more solar radiation back to space, which may temper or even reduce the strength of monsoon circulations compared to the present day. Precipitation may behave independently from the circulation under warming conditions in which an increased atmospheric moisture loading, based purely on thermodynamic considerations, could result in increased monsoon rainfall under climate change. The challenge to improve model parameterizations and include more complex processes and feedbacks pushes computing resources to their limit, thus requiring continuous upgrades of computational infrastructure to ensure progress in understanding and predicting current and future behaviour of monsoons

LIBOR: Everything You Ever Wanted to Know But Were Afraid to Ask

The goal of this article is to present the reader with a general overview of the LIBOR: its genesis and development, how and why London bankers manipulated the LIBOR, the liability of implicated parties, criminal penalties, the impact of criminal penalties on director and officer insurance carriers, and what the future holds for the LIBOR

Improved Constraints on the Acceleration History of the Universe and the Properties of the Dark Energy

We extend and apply a model-independent analysis method developed earlier by Daly & Djorgovski to new samples of supernova standard candles, radio galaxy and cluster standard rulers, and use it to constrain physical properties of the dark energy as functions of redshift. Similar results are obtained for the radio galaxy and supernova data sets. The first and second derivatives of the distance are compared directly with predictions in a standard model based on General Relativity. The good agreement indicates that General Relativity provides an accurate description of the data on look-back time scales of about ten billion years. The first and second derivatives are combined to obtain the acceleration parameter, assuming only the validity of the Robertson-Walker metric, independent of a theory of gravity and of the physical nature of the dark energy. The acceleration of the universe at the current epoch is indicated by the analysis. The effect of non-zero space curvature on q(z) is explored. We solve for the pressure, energy density, equation of state, and potential and kinetic energy of the dark energy as functions of redshift assuming that General Relativity is the correct theory of gravity, and the results indicate that a cosmological constant in a spatially flat universe provides a good description of each of these quantities over the redshift range from zero to about one. We define a new function, the dark energy indicator, in terms of the first and second derivatives of the coordinate distance and show how this can be used to measure deviations of w from -1 and to obtain a new and independent measure of Omega.Comment: 46 pages, submitted for publicatio

Subtractive CRISPR screen identifies the ATG16L1/vacuolar ATPase axis as required for non-canonical LC3 lipidation

Although commonly associated with autophagosomes, LC3 can also be recruited to membranes by covalent lipidation in a variety of non-canonical contexts. These include responses to ionophores such as the M2 proton channel of influenza A virus. We report a subtractive CRISPR screen that identifies factors required for non-canonical LC3 lipidation. As well as the enzyme complexes directly responsible for LC3 lipidation in all contexts, we show the RALGAP complex is important for M2-induced, but not ionophore drug-induced, LC3 lipidation. In contrast, ATG4D is responsible for LC3 recycling in M2-induced and basal LC3 lipidation. Identification of a vacuolar ATPase subunit in the screen suggests a common mechanism for non-canonical LC3 recruitment. Influenza-induced and ionophore drug-induced LC3 lipidation lead to association of the vacuolar ATPase and ATG16L1 and can be antagonized by Salmonella SopF. LC3 recruitment to erroneously neutral compartments may therefore represent a response to damage caused by diverse invasive pathogens

Differential Antigen Presentation Regulates the Changing Patterns of CD8+ T Cell Immunodominance in Primary and Secondary Influenza Virus Infections

The specificity of CD8+ T cell responses can vary dramatically between primary and secondary infections. For example, NP366–374/Db- and PA224–233/Db-specific CD8+ T cells respond in approximately equal numbers to a primary influenza virus infection in C57BL/6 mice, whereas NP366–374/Db-specific CD8+ T cells dominate the secondary response. To investigate the mechanisms underlying this changing pattern of immunodominance, we analyzed the role of antigen presentation in regulating the specificity of the T cell response. The data show that both dendritic and nondendritic cells are able to present the NP366–374/Db epitope, whereas only dendritic cells effectively present the PA224–233/Db epitope after influenza virus infection, both in vitro and in vivo. This difference in epitope expression favored the activation and expansion of NP366–374/Db-specific CD8+ memory T cells during secondary infection. The data also show that the immune response to influenza virus infection may involve T cells specific for epitopes, such as PA224–233/Db, that are poorly expressed at the site of infection. In this regard, vaccination with the PA224–233 peptide actually had a detrimental effect on the clearance of a subsequent influenza virus infection. Thus, differential antigen presentation impacts both the specificity of the T cell response and the efficacy of peptide-based vaccination strategies