Scenarios for Irish House Prices

In this note, a recently published model of the Irish residential mortgage market is used to generate likely scenarios for Irish house prices out to 2013. The model allows for the interaction between house prices and mortgage credit as well as key macroeconomic variables and housing supply. Future prices based on such models typically tend to assume that, where significant overvaluation has occured, prices correct back to some long-run equilibrium path. However, analysis of housing booms in a cross-country context reveals that prices often tend to overcorrect following a sustained house price boom. We discuss the results from our model in this context.

How I Organise my Research. ESRI Memorandum Series No. 96 1970

I give this talk with some trepidation. In the first place, I find it extremely egotistical to speak about the organisation of my own research, and I am nothing if not a modest man. More important, the general subject is one on which I never heard anybody lecture before. Thus, I do not have available many sources, the conventional prop of the professional research worker. Professor O'Connor, in organising these lectures, is providing for you a service which, in my experience, is not given anywhere else. Accordingly, I hope you will be patient with us if the first results are not too good

Welfare measurement and the national accounts. ESRI Memorandum Series 109

The stated objective of the author is "to lay a bridge between income accounting and welfare theory". There are two contrasting ways of pursuing this objective. The first, in the realm of pure theory, examines the relationship between welfare and hypothetical, perfect measures of national product, while the second lies in the domain of national income accounting with attempts to redefine concepts, extend data coverage and improve measurement. Professor Romans’s attempt at bridge-building begins in the realm of theory with the construction of a welfare maximisa tion model designed to establish the conditions in which it can be asserted without ambiguity that net national product and welfare are moving in the same direetion

Public Finance Procedures. ESRI Memorandum Series No. 147 1981

The painful measures needed to restore order in the public finances are causing more and more people to regret that the Exchequer was ever allowed to get into such imbalance. Hopefully, this will convince them of the need to establish procedures which will help to ensure that the public finances do not so readily drift into disorder again. The proposals contained in the recent Government White Paper, A Better Way to Plan the Nation's Finances, represent a significant attempt to achieve just this. In my view, the general intent of these proposals deserves to be welcomed, not only by those concerned about sound finance but by all, whether from the right or the left, who value the preservation of democracy. To justify this view I propose, before critically examining the details of the proposals, to explain the far-reaching implications of the problem to which the proposals are addressed

Job Creation Since the Foundation of the State. ESRI Memorandum Series No. 119 1975

The population of the Republic of Ireland is now 3.2 million, just about the same as it was in 1921 when the new State was about to be formed. From the perspective of other European countries, the remark able thing about this is the absence of growth, since every other European country has experienced a significant rise in population in this period: even in Northern Ireland, which I shall consider later in the paper, the population is now more than one-fifth greater than in 1921. But on the other hand, from the perspective of Ireland in the 1950s, when population was declining rapidly - reaching a low point of 2.8 million in 1961 - few people would have confidently envisaged restoration of the population to its 1921 level within such a comparatively short number of years. The major determinant of Ireland's unusual population experience has been emigration, which in turn has been chiefly influenced by the search for jobs abroad that were not available at home. In this paper, I shall first outline the past record of employment creation in the Republic of Ireland. Part II considers the varying policy approaches that were adopted. In Part III, the employment experience in Northern Ireland is discussed. In the concluding part, I try to draw some lessons from the past which I hope will prove relevant to your work in the rest of the Course when you turn your minds to the present and prospective situation

Output, Employment and Wages in the Small Open Economy. ESRI Memorandum Series No. 132 1979

The high level of employment consistently maintained by most western countries during the 1950s and 1960s lent credence to Keynes's view that the level of effective demand was the main determinant of output, and, therefore, of employment. A reappraisal of this view appeared necessary in the 1970s as governments faced accelerating inflation and unemployment. Alternative schools developed, attempting to discredit the notion that govern­ment-induced variations in aggregate demand could necessarily maintain output, and, thus, employment, at desired levels. The aim of this paper is to consider the short-run interrelations between output, employment and wages, with special reference to the small open economy; and to contrast the policy implications for such an economy with those arising from the traditional "Keynesian" closed economy model

Public opinion and understanding of the impact of electric vehicles:a UK experience

The UK Government places pressure on the automotive industry to reduce carbon emissions by prioritising the manufacture of alternative fuel vehicles. Hence, electric vehicles (EVs) are a priority for the automotive industry given they emit minimal carbon emissions compared to petrol and diesel vehicles. Despite the continued improvement in the manufacture of EVs, issues regarding the viability and affordability of the vehicles influence the market for EVs. This paper explores opinions regarding (i) the viability and environmental impact of EVs as a replacement for petrol/diesel vehicles; (ii) the affordability of EVs; and (iii) knowledge and familiarity of the use of EVs. 130 respondents to a questionnaire, along with interviews with participants within the automotive industry inlcuding an owner of an EV, generally supported literature on the study of EVs. Findings of this research identified that views relating to the viability of EVs focussed on range anxiety, charging speeds and battery life. Views relating to the affordability of EVs are influenced by the initial purchase price of the vehicle, along with costs associated with the battery and charging point. Finally, it is clear that consumers with greater knowledge about EV technologies are more likely to embrace EVs

Conceptual sorting and corresponding verbalization in children of good and poor personality adjustment.

Thesis (M.S.

Impressions of a visit to Denmark. ESRI Memorandum series 101

At the outset I should stress that the statements made about the Danish economy and society are largely impressionistic, being based on discussions and subjective observation during five days in Denmark, supplemented by some background reading and study of statistics. But, the major purpose of my visit, and of this report, was not to study Denmark as such but rather to view Irish problems, and the research we are doing on them, in the light of Danish experience. Moreover, I did not go there with an open mind: I had, so to speak many hypotheses relating to Ireland already in mind and I wanted to see how these looked when viewed against a Danish background

The Consumer Price Index and Different Household Expenditure Patterns. Quarterly Economic Commentary Special Article, October 1975

The Consumer Price Index ( CPI) is now used increasingly as the major reference point in adjusting pay and social benefits to "compensate" for inflation. This raises many interesting questions about the precise meaning of compensation, its feasibility and its effects as well as the suitability of the CPI for the purpose. This paper, which is part of work in progress on these issues, examines how price changes affect different types of household by virtue of differences in their expenditure patterns