Lower Oil Revenues, Higher Public Debt: The Fiscal Policy Implications of Low Oil Prices in Azerbaijan

This article examines fiscal policy and the main parameters of Azerbaijan's fiscal position in the context of the severe constraints (namely, reduced budget revenues and cuts in government spending) posed by the decline in crude oil prices. Azerbaijan's fiscal balances have deteriorated considerably as crude oil prices have tumbled. A worsening of Azerbaijan's fiscal balance could gradually contribute to an increase in the public debt burden and threaten fiscal sustainability in the long term. The sovereign wealth fund of Azerbaijan, SOFAZ, now has very limited profits from the sale of oil, and will contribute less to the fiscal revenues of the state as a consequence. The national state-owned oil-gas company, SOCAR, temporarily cancelled its plans for a new oil-gas refining and petrochemical complex because of the rapid fall in crude oil prices. However, at the same time, the new low oil price environment also offers an opportunity to boost a new wave of fiscal and public administration reforms in Azerbaijan

Components and Priorities of Industrial Policy in Azerbaijan

This article examines industrial policy in Azerbaijan and its link with the broader development agenda with respect to its periodization, priorities, and instruments. The article finds that despite the government's attempts to diversify the economy and exports by promoting non-oil industries, the imbalance between the mining and manufacturing industries remains a challenging issue. Additionally, the high level of oil-gas dependence negatively affects the quality of policy formulation and implementation in industry

Assessment of Institutional Quality in Resource-Rich Caspian Basin Countries

Natural resource dependence is believed to have potential impact on institutional development, and there is growing consensus in the academic literature that institutional weakness is central to the explanation of the negative effects of resource booms. Generally, the quality of institutional framework and natural resource dependence interact mutually. Natural resources rents can damage institutions by removing incentives to conduct reforms and even to establish a well-functioning bureaucracy. Also, weak institutional quality is the ultimate cause for a disadvantageous management framework of natural resources and process of converting revenue flows into economic development. This paper examines the connection between institutional quality and resource dependence in resource-rich Caspian Basin countries (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkmenistan) with transition economies. The analysis for the total natural resources rents suggests that, in aggregate, revenues on total natural resources have a negative impact on government effectiveness

Fiscal sustainability and the State Oil Fund in Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan, like many resource-rich countries, decided to set up a sovereign wealth fund in order to avoid income volatility, to achieve intergenerational equity and to transform resource wealth into more productive assets. Azerbaijan established the State Oil Fund of the Azerbaijan Republic (SOFAZ) in late 1999 to accumulate income from hydrocarbon exports. SOFAZ has gradually become the leading part of the country's public finance system. Azerbaijan was the first country to fulfill all requirements of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), an international agreement to implement global standards of transparency in the resource extracting sectors. However, SOFAZ's contribution to an effective resource revenue management and long-run economic development is still questionable: transparency applies only to the income side of Azerbaijan's oil fund while the expenditure side remains opaque. Unlimited and unconditional transfers from SOFAZ to the state budget have threatened fiscal sustainability and the overall macroeconomic equilibrium

The Political Economy of Oil in Azerbaijan

ISSN:1867-932

Industrial Policy in the South Caucasus

ISSN:1867-932

Low Oil Prices: Economic and Social Implications for Azerbaijan

ISSN:1867-932