Inequality, trust, and sustainability

Instrumental arguments linking inequality to sustainability often suppose a negative relationship between inequality and social cohesion, and empirical studies of inequality and social trust support the assumption. If true, then redistribution should increase levels of social cohesion and thereby ease the implementation of policies that require collective action to achieve shared benefits. However, an examination of the data suggests that at least part of the relationship may be explained by income level, rather than income distribution, suggesting that growth, rather than redistribution, may achieve the same goal. This paper tests for the possibility and suggests that income is indeed important in explaining differences in levels of social trust. However, the effect of income level is insufficient to explain all of the dependence on income inequality; both income level and income distribution are correlated with social trust. The analysis is done at the income decile level using individual response data from the World Values Survey. While the analysis is limited by the availability and reliability of the underlying data, the results suggest that neither redistribution nor growth alone is sufficient to raise a low-trust country to a position of medium or high trust. Rather, using the parameters estimated in this paper, a combination of growth with narrowing income distributions could, over a period of perhaps two decades, produce a significant change in levels of social trust.income inequality; social trust; social cohesion; composition effect; World Values Survey

Confronting the Kaya Identity with Investment and Capital Stocks

Scaling relations, such as the IPAT equation and the Kaya identity, are useful for quickly gauging the scale of economic, technological, and demographic changes required to reduce environmental impacts and pressures; in the case of the Kaya identity, the environmental pressure is greenhouse gas emissions. However, when considering large-scale economic transformation, as with a shift to a low-carbon economy, the IPAT and Kaya identities and their cousins fail to capture the legacy of existing capital, on the one hand, and the need for new investment, on the other. While detailed models can capture these factors, they do not allow for rapid exploration of widely different alternatives, which is the appeal of the IPAT and Kaya identities. In this paper we present an extended Kaya identity that includes investment and capital stocks. The identity we propose is a sum of terms, rather than a simple scaling relation. Nevertheless, it allows for quick analysis and rapid exploration of a variety of different possible paths toward a low-carbon economy.Comment: 7 figure

Cost-share induced technological change and Kaldor’s stylized facts

This paper presents a theory of induced technological change in which firms pursue a random, local, and bounded search for productivity-enhancing innovations. Firms implement profitable innovations at fixed prices, which then spread through the economy. After diffusion, all firms adjust prices and wages. The model is consistent with a variety of price-setting behaviors, which determine equilibrium positions characterized by constant cost shares and productivity growth rates. Target-return pricing yields Harrod-neutral technological change with a fixed wage share as a stable equilibrium, consistent with Kaldor’s stylized facts, while allowing for deviations from equilibrium, as observed in the longer historical record

Inequality, trust, and sustainability

Instrumental arguments linking inequality to sustainability often suppose a negative relationship between inequality and social cohesion, and empirical studies of inequality and social trust support the assumption. If true, then redistribution should increase levels of social cohesion and thereby ease the implementation of policies that require collective action to achieve shared benefits. However, an examination of the data suggests that at least part of the relationship may be explained by income level, rather than income distribution, suggesting that growth, rather than redistribution, may achieve the same goal. This paper tests for the possibility and suggests that income is indeed important in explaining differences in levels of social trust. However, the effect of income level is insufficient to explain all of the dependence on income inequality; both income level and income distribution are correlated with social trust. The analysis is done at the income decile level using individual response data from the World Values Survey. While the analysis is limited by the availability and reliability of the underlying data, the results suggest that neither redistribution nor growth alone is sufficient to raise a low-trust country to a position of medium or high trust. Rather, using the parameters estimated in this paper, a combination of growth with narrowing income distributions could, over a period of perhaps two decades, produce a significant change in levels of social trust

A middle-manager model of wage and salary distribution within firms

Management structure affects income distribution within the firm. We construct a model in which the managerial wage bill is determined by the number of direct reports to each manager (the “span of control”) and the increase in pay between levels in the managerial hierarchy. The model explains, in a natural way, one of the best-documented observations in firm compensation: that CEO pay increases with the size of the firm. It also shows that rising span of control will normally lead to a decline in the ratio of the managerial wage bill to that of production workers. As span of control has been rising in recent decades, this appears to be inconsistent with the widely-documented rise in income inequality. The discrepancy is explained by the rapid expansion of equity-based compensation

Biased technological change and Kaldor’s stylized facts

This paper presents a theory of biased technological change in which firms pursue a random, local, search for productivity-enhancing innovations. They implement profitable innovations at fixed prices, subsequently adjusting prices and wages. Factor productivity growth rates are shown to respond positively to factor cost shares. Combined with price-setting behavior, an equilibrium is characterized by constant cost shares and productivity growth rates. Under target-return pricing, capital productivity growth is zero at equilibrium, yielding Kaldor’s “stylized facts” of constant capital productivity and rate of profit. Equilibrium can be disturbed by changes in the pricing regime or technological potential for productivity improvement

Shifting to a Green Economy: Lock-in, Path Dependence, and Policy Options

In the face of increasingly likely dangerous climate change, many developing countries are designing green economy or low-emissions development strategies, but are simultaneously on a course of investment locking them into high-emission infrastructure. Meanwhile, many high-income countries are working to reduce their emissions but are hampered by the cost of switching from an existing capital stock designed for a fossil fuel-based economy. This paper looks at economic aspects of the challenge of escaping carbon lock-in using a “brown-green capital” model. In the model, brown capital is more productive than green capital in a brown capital-dominated economy, while green capital is more productive in a green capital-dominated economy; that is, the model allows for “carbon lock-out”. We explore possible macroeconomic consequences of policies to drive a transition to a low-carbon economy and policy responses in the case that macroeconomic imbalances result. Three results are particularly interesting. First, the effect of policy instruments depends on whether the economy is wage-led or profitled, a distinction that emerges from post-Keynesian theory. Second, if investors hedge against uncertainty over expected levels of green and brown investment, then there is likely to be underinvestment in green capital even at quite high levels of green capital penetration, creating a substantial challenge for policymakers. Third, the model suggests an unusual role for a carbon price, to control inflationary pressure arising from public green capital investment, in addition to its usual role of encouraging emissions reductions at the margin